Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 030525
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

PRIMARY SNOW BAND FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND INTO
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE IN A RELATIVE
LULL THIS EVENING...THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED AT
TIMES WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN/SLEET. SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN
A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE...RESULTING IN SLICK CONDITIONS. STILL SEEING
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED...SO LIKELY SEEING MORE OF A DRIFTING
THAN BLOWING SCENARIO.

03.03Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL IA. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE IS STRONG 925 TO 850
HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND FROM JUST EAST OF OMAHA TO CHARLES CITY. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS SNOW BAND WELL...BUT FOLLOWING THE LOW-
LEVEL FORCING...THIS SNOW BAND SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1SM AT TIMES...SO SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY RATHER STRONG OMEGA IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PER RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. ALL SAID...LOOK FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. BECAUSE
OF THIS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME...
ALTHOUGH CERTAIN PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WHILE THE SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND TAKES
SHAPE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 02.12Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING A FRONTOGENESIS BAND
SETTING UP IN THIS REGION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOWING THIS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO WHILE IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THIS DEFORMATION
AREA...ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THIS MAY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST.

FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THE CONCERN STILL REMAINS WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LOSS
OF ICE IN THE DRY SLOT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE SHOULD
BE A TOTAL LOSS OF ICE OVER THIS AREA BUT CONCERNED THIS MAY NOT
BE OCCURRING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
ICE IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS DOWN TO ABOUT CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN
THERE LOOKS TO A LOSS OF ICE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
LOSS OF ICE COMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR A CHANGE OVER
TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
ICING WITH A GLAZE OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE TO PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. JUST HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW OCCURS COULD BE IMPACTED
ON WHETHER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OCCURS AND PUTS A HARD
COATING ON TOP OF THE SNOW.

THE 02.12Z MODEL DATA ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH AS ICE ALOFT COMES BACK INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE A
SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO GET
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SECONDARY PUSH.

BASED ON ALL THIS...THE ONLY PLANNED CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
HEADLINES TO TAKE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AND DOWNGRADE
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME DOWN OUT
OF CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO ONLY
EXPECTING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A BIT MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ALSO BRINGING IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE THURSDAY WAVE...BUT AGAIN THERE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED TIME FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...NOT EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW
EITHER AND WILL HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE PARADE OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS WILL THEN CONTINUE WITH
YET ANOTHER ONE COMING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEMS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM TAF AIRFIELDS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL ONE MORE ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS IA
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS SNOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-90.
WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF WORSENING CONDITIONS...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EAST OF
TAF AIRFIELDS BY 03.12Z...ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT GUSTS FROM 24 TO 30
KTS AT BOTH AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN BLSN AT KRST WITH THESE WINDS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER
03.18Z WITH AN EXPECTANT SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUD DECK LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ054-055-
     061.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ011-029-
     030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS


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