Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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804
FXUS63 KARX 010722
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
220 AM CDT SAT Oct 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Wobbling, cutoff upper level low over the ohio river valley will
meander north today, finally getting a kick east late tonight/sunday
as a trough drives into the west coast. Bits of upper level energy
will ripple around the low, and with ample moisture to tap into,
continue to trigger areas of light rain thru the day - mostly from
around the Mississippi river eastward.

Surface high/upper level ridge looks to build across the Upper
Mississippi River valley on Sunday with expected clearing from north
to south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Upper level trough slated to work from the west coast Sunday morning
to across the Northern Plains Wed night, gradually showing a
weakening trend as it then lifts northeast into southern Canada
thu/fri. A sfc cold front will lead the system into the region Tue
night/wed...with some decent low level moisture transport ahead of
it but little/if any instability. Ample forcing/moisture to fire up
some showers/storms along and ahead of the boundary, with the GFS/EC
favoring overnight Tue/Wed night with the higher chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

VFR stratus remains over the TAF sites. However, easterly flow
around low pressure in Indiana continued to bring moisture westward,
with IFR ceilings at Viroqua and MVFR at Sparta. These lower
ceilings will move into the TAF sites during the early morning hours
as the easterly flow persists. Additionally we could see some MVFR
BR impact the sites around sunrise. Cannot rule out a few light
showers/drizzle as well during the BR time period, especially at
KLSE. Daytime heating should help to mix out the BR and bring
ceilings up to MVFR. Further increase to VFR is expected in the
evening as dry air begins to flow in from the northeast.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...AJ



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