Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 270812
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
312 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For this afternoon and evening, a vigorous short wave trough,
currently located over southern Manitoba, will move southeast
across northern and eastern Wisconsin. While there are steep 900
to 700 mb lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km), soundings show a warm layer
between 700 and 500 mb. This may cap off any convection from even
developing. As a result, just kept a mention a slight chance of
showers in north-central and central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

From Friday into Tuesday, high pressure will be in control of the
area. With relatively dry air, abundant sunshine, and soils
drying out, expect the temperatures in the river valleys to climb
a few degrees higher than MOS. Meanwhile at night, the relatively
dry dew points (especially on Saturday and Sunday mornings) will
cause temperatures in central and north-central Wisconsin to fall
a few degrees cooler than guidance.

On Tuesday night and Wednesday, both the GFS and GEM have a cold
front moving through the region. Meanwhile the ECMWF does not have
this system moving through until Thursday. In all 3 models this is
a later trend, so there remains much uncertainty on the timing of
this system. Due to this kept the rain chances low. Regardless of
the timing, both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that the
CAPES are not impressive and the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear remain
weak.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Cigs: sct-bkn deck will slip south before 06z, leaving skc
conditions. Aside from some afternoon cu Thu, skc conditions should
win out through tomorrow night.

WX/Vsby: T/Td spread still low, but dewpoints are dropping off, with
less humid air continuing to funnel in from the north. Temps may not
be able to catch up. Clear skies and light winds would favor some
fog development, but none evident as of of yet upstream. Confidence
lower that mvfr br will develop, but will continue a mention at krst
for now.

Wind: northerly winds through Thu night, generally light but picking
up a bit for the afternoon hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...through Wednesday night
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A Flood Warning continues along the Kickapoo River at Steuben.
River levels at this site are expected to fall below flood stage
tonight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION.....Rieck
HYDROLOGY...Boyne



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