467
FXUS63 KBIS 110541
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1241 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue through the weekend. Dry
  conditions expected for Saturday, with an isolated shower or
  thunderstorm possible on Sunday.

- Average (mid to upper 60s) temperatures expected next week,
  as well as near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Minimal updates need at this time. Clear to mostly clear skies
should prevail through much of the night making favorable
conditions for viewing tonight`s northern lights from a strong
solar storm. Later tonight into Saturday morning, areas across
the north could see some increased cloud cover. Lows tonight
generally look to be in the 40s. Overall the forecast remains on
track.

UPDATE
Issued at 940 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

No updates to the forecast were needed for this late evening
update. Mostly clear skies and modest north northwesterly winds
are mainly observed at this time.


UPDATE
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Other than some minor updates to the sky grids to account for
the latest satellite trends, the forecast remains on track.
Diurnal cumulus across the southwest and James River Valley has
begun to diminish, while gusty northeasterly winds will weaken
over the next few hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Strong northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with a
clipper/S/WV embedded trough moving southeast across the Upper
Midwest. Outside of some diurnally drive CU, a mostly sunny sky
prevails with very comfortable temperatures in the 60s to lower
70s.

Our flow aloft remain northwesterly over the next couple of
days, with an embedded wave moving through later this weekend
bringing a chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
Sat night through Sunday.

Model ensembles for next week still show a zonal flow pattern,
with increasing probability of decent S/WV moving through the
region Tue-Wed, increasing the chances for showers/thunderstorms.
Along with this, temperatures will trend slightly cooler with
and in the wake of this wave, but then should rebound some with
upper level ridging favored west. How much we warm and also
precipitation chances remain uncertain as the ridge will be just
to our west and much will depend how far east the transition
zone moves.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions generally expected through the forecast period.
Mainly clear skies will be found tonight, with increasing clouds
expected from north to south Saturday morning. Mid to high level
clouds could then linger through the day and evening Saturday.
An isolated afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm is
possible Saturday, although confidence is not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time. Light winds tonight will
become a breezy westerly wind on Saturday, diminishing Saturday
evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Anglin