Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 071759
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
CONTINUED TRACKING CLOSE TO FORECAST HEATING CURVE. MEANWHILE THE
SMOKE AND HAZE LAYER HAS PUSHED ACROSS CENTRAL ND TO ABOUT A
MINOT-JAMESTOWN-GWINNER LINE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE RRV THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS NORTHWEST
MN INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SMOKE AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES STARTING UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WERE PRETTY
QUIET. NO METAR SITES HAD ANY VSBY ISSUES AND THE ONLY CLOUDS
WERE IN THE FAR NE. WHEN THE SUN SET LAST NIGHT THE SMOKE LAYER
WAS WEST AND NW OF THE FA. NOT EXPECTING THE SMOKE TO BE MUCH OF
AN ISSUE TODAY BUT WILL SEE WHAT THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WHEN
THE SUN RISES TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN MONDAY BUT STILL
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO THE WESTERN FA AND
EVENTUALLY THE VALLEY REGION. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH
POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS THE UPPER JET HOLDS OVER
THE FA TOO. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE FA ON WED WITH MODELS
SHOWING SOME 60F DEW POINT VALUES POOLING ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT KIND OF CLOUD COVER LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM THE TUE
NIGHT CONVECTION WHICH COULD AFFECT SFC HEATING WED. AT THIS POINT
MODELS STILL SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 30KTS. MAY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SHORT WAVE ACTION/UPPER JET
STRENGTH AND COOLER 500MB TEMPS OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SOME OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD LINGER INTO WED EVENING BUT
LOOKING LIKE THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE THU INTO THU
NIGHT TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS DRY WITH THU TEMPS FINALLY CLIMBING
BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SPLIT FLOW FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE LONG WAVE
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST CANADA.
GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES FASTER THEN THE GFS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON FRI. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
IN THE NORTH ON SAT. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED THREE TO FIVE DEGREES
ON SUN AND TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON MON FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN SE NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL SLOWLY WORK
ITS WAY EAST. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...ONLY LOOKING AT WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AT ALL TAF SITES LATER
IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS E...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. SOME CU CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SFC
HEATING...BUT DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER
NEAR DVL AFT 06Z WITH APCHING WAVE...BUT DYNAMICS OTHERWISE WEAK FOR
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES
AVIATION...HOPKINS


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