Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210919
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
319 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Fog, drizzle, and freezing drizzle continue to be the main
challenges for the short term.

An upper low with several circulations has been lifting northward
across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Broad surface low pressure remains to our west with a high to the
northeast, so southeast low level flow continues to bring plenty
of moisture into the area. With lots of low level moisture, we
continue to see some fog across our western tier and some
automated stations reporting light rain which is most likely
drizzle. Models continue to show a fairly thick layer of moisture
at low levels throughout the day, so there will likely be little
change during the day. Visibilities could improve a bit, but some
lingering fog and low clouds will continue along with the chance
for drizzle. Model soundings have dry air aloft for much of the
day so will keep precip mention drizzle or freezing drizzle with
little QPF. With much of the CWA socked in the temperatures will
change little during the day, so have highs only a few degrees
higher than current readings in the mid 30s.

Tonight, a weak surface trough will begin to move into the area
and will eventually shift winds to the northwest, but it will not
be a sharp shift and winds will be light and variable for a good
chuck of the night. Thus, low clouds and some fog will continue to
be an issue. Kept temps above most guidance values as there will
be little diurnal change. There remains some very light QPF put
out by most of the models but with dry layer aloft remaining over
most of the area think that it will still be mostly drizzle or
freezing drizzle.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Sunday and Monday...The upper low continues to lift into Canada
with west surface winds and some weak cold air advection behind
it. Temperatures will slowly drop off to below the freezing point
throughout the period. Some spotty light precip remains over the
area, but some model soundings for Sunday show increasing moisture
in the dendritic growth layer while others have the dry layer
aloft continuing. Will go with a mix of drizzle/freezing
drizzle/snow, but any amounts will continue to be extremely light.
Precip should start to taper off on Sunday night and into Monday
as the upper wave moves north out of the area and before the next
one arrives. More precip, most likely snow will come into the
southern counties Monday night as the next upper low begins its
approach.

Tuesday-Friday...00z operational models and ensemble data indicate a
stronger system will pass just south of the region Tue/Wed, with an
upper trough from Canada swinging through the region quickly after.
For this region, impacts should be minimal, but do think there is
the potential for a high PoP/low QPF scenario with up to an inch of
snowfall Wed/Thur. Temperatures will be below freezing, but still
above normal as clouds remain for much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

For most areas expect IFR conditions thru the pd. Most areas with
cigs blo 1000 ft agl. A few areas, such as TVF with MVFR cigs but
do suspect that will not last long. Vsbys in fog likely a bit more
variable but overall lowest at DVL/BJI. Winds southeast 5-10 kts
turning more easterly Saturday aftn/eve.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...Riddle



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