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000
FXUS63 KFGF 271943
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
243 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

500mb ridging and SFC high pressure continue to push into and
over the FA, the stacked low pressure system is slowing moving SE
over the Great Lakes with the clear cloudy line bisecting the FA
from near Pembina to Grand Forks to Elbow Lake. With it the impactful
weather concerns are showers in the east for the rest of the
afternoon, clouds and frost potential overnight. Frost advisory
is in effect for the western areas where best cooling conditions
are more likely to set up, clear skies light winds and low 30 dew
points. Across the valley and NW MN conditions less certain with
model RHs fields suggesting more clouds overnight and dewpoints
have held in the low to mid 40s. Visible satellite imagery does
show some cellular nature to the CU field in Manitoba and Ontario
so do expect some break in the overcast to occur overnight.
Wednesday temps rebound into the 60s with full sun after some
morning CU flatten out in the early afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Quiet fall weather is expected late this week through the weekend
as the cut-off low continues to slowly meander towards the Ohio
Valley and ridging remains over the north central US. The
GFS/ECMWF bring a weak disturbance into the area towards
Friday/Friday Night, but with a dry airmass in place, kept the
area mostly free from precip through Sunday. Temps through the
weekend will remain near to above average with highs reaching the
60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s.

The upper level flow will become more southwesterly early next week
with 12Z deterministic runs showing a shortwave trough ejecting into
the Plains during this time. While this pattern favors increasing
chances for precip early next week, model solutions vary on the
evolution of the upper trough into the Plains with timing also a
question given the downstream ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

MVFR CIGS at TVF and BJI with tempo GFK this afternoon. Uncertainty
abounds with CIGS and clearing this evening into the overnight.
With SFC and 500mb ridging coming into the FA from the west will
have erosion of clouds from northwest to southeast.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...JK