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000
FXUS63 KFGF 020451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND IS MOVING MORE INTO SD. DRIEST AIR
IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES, TEMPS FALLING FASTER THAN
THOUGHT...ADJUSTED DIURNAL CURVE FOR REST OF THE NIGHT. ESSENTIALLY
KEPT THE SAME LOW TEMPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER SOUTHERN MAN. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER ND AND SD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIP SHOULD
STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. TOOK OUT EARLY EVENING POPS. WILL
GO A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR TONIGHTS LOW AND MAINLY AFFECT WESTERN
ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MAN MAY MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION. ADDED LOW POPS OVER A COUPLE COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEY. TWEAKED WINDS A BIT LOWER FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM
INITIAL ZING WELL SO WILL USE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION
GETTING CLOSE TO THE FAR SW AREA...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK COOL FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL
MUCAPE AROUND 15000 J/KG AND SOME SHEAR AROUND 30KT...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SPC HAS MENTIONED A SEE TEXT A
5% CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL/WIND...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
TOMORROW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BE INTO THE MID
80S SOUTH AND AROUND 80 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH COVERAGE.

ON MONDAY...THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...AROUND 80 SOUTH AND MID/UPPER 70S
FAR NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODEL CONTINUITY IS NOT THE BEST HOWEVER
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH
CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PCPN TO THE
WEST WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS IT INTO THE SW FA. THAT TREND CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF OVERALL VERY DRY AND GFS
WETTER. THE 12Z GEM ALSO SHOWS PCPN TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT
EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VRF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SAT. CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SAT. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THEN BACK TO THE NORTH LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES