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000
FXUS63 KFGF 222044
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
344 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 8 KTS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
VARIABILITY. KDVL AREA SHOULD SEE WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID DAY TOMORROW TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JR