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000
FXUS63 KFGF 171200 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED HOURLY CURVES TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 00 UTC GLOBAL MODELS ARE VERY
SIMILAR WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE...SO WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FOR TODAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY/S
READINGS EXCEPT ACROSS MN LAKES COUNTRY WHERE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WIND
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

A 500 HPA SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE
TO BETWEEN +3 AND +6 C BY 00 UTC SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS TO AROUND 850 HPA BY 21 UTC AND WITH 20 TO 30 KTS TO MIX
TO THE SFC...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT
AND SHOULD FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FROM BEMIDJI TOWARDS THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND NEAR SFC SUB-
FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/
SLEET MIX. ADDED THIS MIX TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. P-TYPE WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON SFC TEMP...DEGREE OF WARMING ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF THE NEAR SFC COLD LAYER. LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER
INCH ARE POSSIBLE...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH P-TYPE CAREFULLY FOR ANY
ADVERSE IMPACTS. ULTIMATELY...SOME ICY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
WITH MAYBE EVEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LAST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY
NOON ON SATURDAY. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER FROM
+8 TO +14 C BY 00 UTC SUNDAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT NOT TOO
STRONG AND CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST RESULTING IN A
RATHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND STARTS AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OUR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALL RAIN. FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL HELP LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS START TO DIVERGE
AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE US FAIRLY
WET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12 UTC FRIDAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO ROSE BACK UP TO NEAR MODERATE AGAIN...
BUT APPEARS TO ALREADY BE GOING BACK DOWN SO WILL LEAVE THE
STATEMENTS ALONE. RUNOFF IS CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY THE
NORTHERN RED SITES...ALVARADO...AND HALLOCK STILL IN FLOOD. THE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...JR