Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
926 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Issued at 926 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Forecast on track, no changes necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Patchy fog continues in portions of the far eastern tier of
counties, and some light snow still at Flag Island. This should
move out in the next few hours and all sites will have good
visibility but clouds will remain. Temperatures will fall a bit
this morning and then rise a couple of degrees later this
afternoon, topping out cooler than yesterday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Temperatures and the onset of snow in the south tonight will be
the main challenges for the period.

A shortwave trough currently over ND will rotate into the MN
arrowhead today, with surface low pressure lingering over
Manitoba. Some light flurries will linger in the northeastern
counties early on, but otherwise conditions will be fairly quiet
today. The west winds will help push the fog/drizzle eastward, but
clouds will continue for much of the day with sat loops showing
most of the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairie Provinces socked
in. The west winds will also bring some weak cold air advection,
which should knock temperatures back a few degrees compared to
yesterday with highs in the 20s to low 30s.

Tonight, the main upper trough moves into the Rockies, with a
surface low starting to deepen over the KS/Neb border. A weak lead
shortwave moving into western SD will help some light snow start
to develop along the mid level baroclinic zone near the SD/ND
border tonight. Most of the activity in the evening will be to our
west, but think our far southwestern counties should see some snow
starting to come in with best chances for accumulation after
midnight. Up to a half an inch in the southwestern counties will
be possible overnight. The clouds in that area should keep temps
in the 20s, but the northwestern counties could see a few breaks
in the overcast and temps dip into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday...The main upper trough moves out into the
Plains and tracks mostly to our south, with a strong deformation
zone and tight pressure gradient remaining over SD and southern
MN. The northern edge of the snow will brush our far southern
counties, with 1 to 3 inches possible by Wednesday morning. A few
ensemble members track the system a bit further north and give us
more snow, but those seem to be outliers so will keep snow amounts
sub-advisory level for now. A shortwave moving in on the backside
of the main trough will come through on Wednesday, but models are
all in pretty good agreement with any snow being very very light.
Will keep 20-30 POPs but little to nothing in the way of QPF or
snow amounts. Winds will pick up from the northwest on the
backside of the departing surface low on Wednesday but do not
think it will be high enough to cause widespread blowing snow
problems with the everything well crusted over from recent warm
temps. Temps through mid week will continue to be well above
seasonal averages with highs in the 20s to low 30s and lows in the
teens and 20s.

Thursday-Sunday...00z models agree with north flow aloft and weak
ridging toward the end of the period. Clouds and flurries likely
the main result, with brief periods of clearing possible.
Temperatures below freezing, but slightly above normal values.
Will need to watch a clipper system at the start of the work week
(just beyond this forecast range)for potential winter impacts.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

KGFK has gone to some VFR ceilings, but all other TAF sites are
MVFR. Think that KGFK will go back down later today as there is
plenty of MVFR stratus to the west. Visibilities have improved at
all TAF sites and think that fog will be less of a problem today
with west winds. Some locations will go back down to IFR ceilings
overnight. Some snow will begin to move into southern portions of
the forecast area late tonight, but think that most of the
activity will stay south of KFAR so will keep a mention out of the
TAFs. Wind out of the west will become light and variable by the
end of the period.




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