059
FXUS62 KTAE 161450
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1050 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The forecast is in good shape, updates do not appear necessary
this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Upper level ridging and deep-layer light northwesterly flow will
continue a slight drying trend in which we can expect clear to
mostly clear skies today. The high temperatures for today will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s, and the overnight lows will be in the
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Although the convective evolution and timing remains somewhat
unclear for Friday into Saturday, severe weather certainly remains a
concern. On the large scale, the models agree that the forecast area
will be in the right entrance region of the southwesterly upper
level jet with steep mid-level lapse rates near 7C/km by Saturday.
Instability looks decent on all of the guidance with SBCAPE values
near 2000 j/kg. The presence of fairly strong mid and upper level
winds for mid May standards in this part of the country will also
allow for high deep layer shear values. Both the 500 mb and 700 mb
winds are expected to exceed the 90th percentile for this time of
year on the ECMWF ensemble for Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile,
precipitable water values in the 90th-99th percentile for this time
of year are expected by Saturday afternoon with values nearing 2
inches. Basically, the large scale picture is set for stormy weather
depending on the mesoscale details. Large hail and damaging winds
would be the main concern as low level shear looks a bit weak for a
big tornado potential. However, I wouldn`t completely discount a
tornado threat either.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Depending on the timing, a low end chance of showers and
thunderstorm could linger across the eastern half of the area for
Sunday, Otherwise, dry conditions look to dominate heading into the
middle of next week with temperatures a few degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There is a slight chance for fog to develop around sunrise
affecting the ECP and TLH terminals, however it should quickly
dissipate within the hour. Confidence is low, so fog was not
included in the TAFs. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Light winds will shift northwesterly for most terminals
this afternoon with ECP becoming southwesterly due to the
afternoon seabreeze.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will pass across the waters today with fairly light
winds. Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday, and a
cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of
a cold frontal passage. High pressure and light winds are expected
to return for early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Today will be a drier day with light northwest winds and minRH
values in the upper 30s this afternoon. The only fire weather
concern for today will be the high dispersions in the Georgia
districts and the inland regions of the SE FL Big Bend.

Our next chance for rain and thunderstorms will be Friday during
the afternoon into the evening hours. Most of the rain will be in
our Alabama districts but, there is a chance for a wetting rain
along I-10 in the western Big Bend and Panhandle; as well as
areas west of the Flint River in our Georgia districts. Elevated
dispersions will be possible within the Apalachicola Forest Friday
afternoon, with moderate dispersions throughout the rest of the
region. Better chances for rain are widespread on Saturday, hence
there are no other fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta continues in minor flood stage
today with the Ochlockonee River close to minor flood stage at
Thomasville and Concord. More rain is headed into the area for the
end of this week into the weekend. The current expected rainfall
amounts are in the 1-3 inch range over most of the area, but locally
heavier amounts cannot be ruled out, particularly if thunderstorms
moved repeatedly over the same areas. Thus, there is a marginal to
slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area from the WPC
excessive rainfall outlook, mainly on Saturday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  69  88  73 /   0  10  40  20
Panama City   87  72  85  73 /   0  10  40  30
Dothan        89  69  87  71 /   0  10  60  40
Albany        88  67  87  71 /   0  10  50  40
Valdosta      89  67  90  72 /   0   0  20  20
Cross City    89  66  88  72 /   0   0  20  10
Apalachicola  84  73  83  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...DVD