Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 212250
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 PM AKDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern to continue over northern Alaska
through early next week.

An early season storm will bring persistent west to southwest
winds along the west and southwest facing coasts along the Bering
Strait coast, Kotzebue Sound, and the coast line north of Cape
Krusenstern as well as the Seward Peninsula and eastern Norton
Sound as a 990 mb low pressure near Wrangel Island strengthens and
moves northeast into the Chukchi Sea Sunday morning. Persistent
west to northwest winds will bring the potential for high surf
along the northwest coast especially north of Wainwright Sunday
afternoon and Monday. High surf is expected to develop along the
northwest coast including Barrow Sunday afternoon and Monday.

High surf is expected to develop Sunday afternoon and continue
through Monday along west, southwest and south facing coasts as
strong and persistent southwest winds develop ahead of an early
season storm moving northeast out of the northern Bering Sea into
the Chukchi Sea. Models continue to struggle with storm track and
strength and small differences in the track of this storm will
have a large influence on storm surge values at a particular
location. In addition to the potential for high surf, heavy rains
are expected to develop over the south facing portions of the
Seward Peninsula and the western Brooks Range on Sunday with over
1 inch of rain expected. Limited rainfall before this fast moving
system over the Seward Peninsula and western Brooks Range will
limit concerns on small stream rises. The heavy rain will continue
to move into the western interior Sunday night and into to central
interior Monday. Wetting rains are a good bet over much of the
interior Monday and will limit fire weather concerns.

The heavy rains will move east over the Eastern Brooks Range and
eastern North Slope where previous rain event and additional heavy
rain is expected tonight. Will need to monitor these areas for
rises on rivers. See Hydro Section for additional details.

At this time the highest surf levels are expected to begin Sunday
afternoon and continue through Monday for most locations. Storm
surge values of 3 to 4 feet above normal tide levels are expected
along the eastern coast of Norton Sound from Cape Stebbins to near
Shaktoolik Sunday afternoon and continuing into Monday. Storm
surge values of 4 to 5 feet are expected Sunday afternoon to
Monday from near Shaktoolik through Norton Bay to near Golovin.
Storm surge values of 3 to 4 feet are expected along the coast
from near Golovin west to near Nome Sunday afternoon through
Monday.

Storm surge values of 2 to 3 feet above normal tide levels are
expected along the Bering Strait Coast. Storm surge values of 1
to 2 feet above normal tide levels are expected beginning Sunday
Evening and continuing into Monday in Kotzebue Sound including
Kotzebue. Storm surge values of 2 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels are expected along the coast north of Cape Krusenstern.
Storm surge values of 1 to 2 feet art expected along the northwest
coast especially north of Wainwright beginning Sunday afternoon
and continuing into to Monday with 1 to 2 foot surge values
expected around Barrow. Those with interests along the shore
should move boats and other valuables above the high water line.

The 12z model run initialized well against the 12 surface analysis
and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model spread
is improved over yesterdays 12z run but continues to struggle
from model family to model family on early season low track and
strength.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Water levels will be slow to lower on Monday with persistent west
winds over Norton Sound as well as Kotzebue Sound. Storm Surge
values are likely to remain elevated into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A series of storm systems is expected to bring several rounds of
heavy rainfall over the Eastern Brooks Range and eastern North
Slope through Monday of next week. An additional 1 inch or more of
rainfall is expected through Monday with additional rainfall
expected tonight and Saturday morning as well as Sunday night and
Monday. Expect rapid rises in rivers and streams into early next
week east of the Colville River as ground becomes more and more
saturated.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 17



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