Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 061202
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS ALASKA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE BERING AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ALCAN
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE EAST. WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING
BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA SAT THROUGH SUN. A SECOND STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA SUN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EACH SHORT WAVE.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE TO ANVIK TO OLD CROW BY 4PM FRI...THEN TO MCGRATH TO
ANAKTUVUK PASS BY 4AM SAT...TO NENANA TO ATIGUN PASS BY 4PM
SAT...TO EAGLE TO OLD CROW BY 4AM SUN AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE
ALCAN BORDER. WILL SEE ISOLATED PM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THIS FEATURES. THE RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AREA MON AND
BECOME STRONG BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN RISE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG TO PERSIST ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST FROM LATE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING ALONG WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS.

A RIDGE ALONG 170 WEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN. THIS
WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WESTERN
CAPES THROUGH SAT.

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE TO ANVIK TO FORT
YUKON EAGLE TO BURWASH LANDING BY 4PM FRI...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY. WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA SUN SPREADING SOME RAIN TO THE WEST COAST SUN ALONG
WITH EAST WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS SURFACE AND
ALOFT THROUGH SUN. THE GFS DISPLAYS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER MODELS. WE ARE USING THE GFS
AREA FOR WHERE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN
GFS WOULD INDICATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THU RH VALUES DROPPED AS LOW AS 15-25% ACROSS MOST OF THE TANANA
VALLEY. RH VALUES TODAY WILL BE A FEW % HIGHER THAN THU AS MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH WITH THE FRONT. GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ALASKA RANGE PASSES THROUGH SAT. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BREAK UP PROCEEDING MUCH FASTER THAN NORMAL. LOWER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY
OF FLOODING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.


AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


$$

JB MAY 16



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