Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXAK69 PAFG 092346
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
246 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A high over northern Alaska will build south over mainland Alaska
Sat and remain there through Sun then retreat over southern Alaska
Mon as several short wave troughs make their way northeast over the
West Coast and northern Alaska. The ridge will rebuild over
mainland Alaska Tue and then flatten out later next week as
severals strong short waves move northeast from the Bering Sea
over northern Alaska.

This means that the generally clear and cold conditions will
persist over Interior Alaska through the weekend...then
temperatures moderating with a chance of snow next week.

On the West Coast clear and cool conditions will moderate through
the weekend with a chance of snow by Mon.

On the Arctic Coast will see temperatures moderating over the
weekend with a chance of snow in the Eastern Arctic Coast.

A weak short wave that lies from the Yukon Delta to Unalakleet to
Northway will move to Gambell to the Bering Strait to Anchorage by
3am Sat and weakening. Strong ridge level easterly winds just
north of this trough from the Ray Mountains to Norton Sound will
weaken tonight as this trough weakens. Flurries along the trough
near Northway will dissipate tonight as the trough moves south in
that area.

A second weak short wave over the Alaska Peninsula will move to
the YK Delta by Sat night and over St Lawrence Island Sun. There
will be mid level clouds and a chance of snow with this trough.

Surface...
A 1046 mb high centered over the northern Yukon Territory with a
ridge extending east across the Brooks Range and Chukchi Sea. This
ridge will weaken slightly through 3pm Sat...and then rotate to
lie from Northway to Deadhorse and north by 3pm Sun. Generally
cold and dry conditions will remain under this ridge. This ridge
is also causing easterly drainage winds down the Tanana and Yukon
Valleys. These winds will gradually decrease through Sun as the
ridge rotates to the north.

An Arctic front that lies over the Beaufort Sea will move south to
Mayo to Demarcation Point by 3am Sat...then moves southeast over
the Yukon and NW Territories. This will bring flurries and clouds
to NE Alaska tonight through Sat with a chance of snow tonight in
zones 204 and eastern 205. This will also cause west winds to
increase to 20kt tonight in zone 204. May push clouds and
flurries south along the Alcan Border...but expect little if any
clouds over Interior Alaska due to the Brooks Range blocking the
moisture. May see slight warming in the Eastern Interior Sat and
Sun due to the few clouds that make it in.

A weather front moving into the southern Bering Sea Sun will move
to the Central Bering Sea Sun night and to Gambell to the Yukon
Delta by Mon. Snow and gale force winds are expected ahead of
this front which could cause blizzard conditions over St Lawrence
Island Sun night and Mon. We will keep an eye on this.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 500 mb models initialize well and show similar solutions through
3pm Sun...and then ECMF brings a short wave into the West Coast
more quickly than the GFS and NAM. At this point will go with the
faster ECMF solution since that short wave is associated with
increasing southwest flow.

At the Surface all models initialize 3-6mb too weak on the
pressure of the high centered near Old Crow although the ECMF
initializes the closest. Will use the ECMF for surface pressure
and bump up winds a few kt across the Eastern Interior due to the
stronger resulting gradient at least for tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.

&&

$$

JB DEC 16



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.