Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 012122
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
122 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
ABOUT 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHER PORTION OF THE
MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT DISINTEGRATES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIKELY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS WITH THE COLD
FRONT.

AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN TODAY...ANOTHER LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND
WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT BACK NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WHICH WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWEST
ALASKA. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH RAIN
ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE ON SUN. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE SHORT
WAVE IS A WARM FRONT WITH A TON OF WARM AIR WITH IT. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HOLDING DECENT MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME PLACES ON THE
ARCTIC SLOPE AND COAST WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA BY MID WEEK WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS COULD SPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTION EASTWARD WITH THE SHARP BAROCLINICITY. A
POSSIBLE CLASSIC SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP BY A NORTHERN UPPER LOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND. WITH POSSIBLE VERY DEEP POOL OF COLD AIR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND DRY OUT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER RH VALUES WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FIRE
SPREAD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA ON WED COULD SPREAD
RAINFALL THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ALONG WITH CONVECTION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15



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