Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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692
FXUS65 KBYZ 250314
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
914 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Quiet night tonight. NW flow aloft exists over the region with an
area of PV helping to generate some mainly mid clouds. Existing
boundary layer was just too dry to allow for any showers during
the peak heating hours, and now with sunset we are seeing some
dissipation of the cloud cover. So a dry night is in store with
chilly temps once again, though not as low as this morning when a
record was set at Miles City and Livingston dropped to the mid
30s. Expect mainly 40s for lows tonight, with some upper 30s in
notoriously cool spots. Sunday will be dry once again with temps a
few degrees warmer than today. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Warmer temperatures ahead as northwest flow transitions to an
upper ridge on Monday. This pattern shift will translate into
growing fire weather concerns for early in the week.

Northwest flow contains a weak shortwave currently sliding into
north central Montana. That wave slides across central and eastern
zones this evening. A few weak showers were popping up over
northern Montana with this wave, with some thunder over south
central Canada. Cape is very limited over the forecast area and
visible satellite imagery bears that out with shallow cu
development. There will be some clouds around this evening, and
can not rule out a sprinkle, but will leave PoPs out for now.

Sunday looks to be a bit warmer as heights rise and slightly
drier air moves in on northwest flow aloft. Low level gradients
turn surface winds to the east and this will keep the warm up at
bay, expect highs to settle in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Heights continue to build Monday and this will turn low level
gradients to the south and southeast. 850mb temperatures build
into the upper 20s to around 30c. Highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s progged. Will have to watch 300mb moisture streaming over the
area, which may keep highs down a couple of degrees. Will leave
going forecast in there for now, but should that moisture trend
continue (which is reflected in guidance), may have to lower highs
a couple of degrees. At any rate, a very warm day ahead for
Monday. Shortwave energy will start to impinge on the high and
work into western zones Monday afternoon, but models were very
limited with convection with dry air in place.

South to southeast winds will increase on Monday as the gradient
tightens up. Have increased winds over eastern zones. Strongest
winds look to be over Fallon and Carter counties. This may pose a
fire weather concern over the far east, but humidity levels look
borderline. Will continue a strongly worded fire weather forecast
and mention these winds. Will also continue the HWO and fine tune
the weather story to incorporate this pattern. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

A cold front moves across the area on Tuesday. Models still
disagreeing on the amount of showers and thunderstorms along and
behind the front on Tuesday, but it seems that a 30 to 50 percent
chance is warranted across most of the central and eastern Plains
with higher amounts in the foothills and mountains. Very dry
boundary layer, with small CAPE and modest shear so strong
thunderstorm activity should be limited. During the afternoon
Tuesday, northwesterly winds will increase with frontal passage
and bring 20% humidity values to the area with gusts around 30 mph
possible during the late afternoon. Temps will be a tad cooler
over western and central zones with ample upper-level cloud cover
and frontal passage. Unstable northwest flow aloft will prevail
through the rest of the week, with cooler than normal temperatures
and diurnally driven isolated showers and thunderstorms. Next low
moves through some time Thur/Fri bringing a little more widspread
potential for showers but nothing to really get too excited about
at this time. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly clear skies, light winds and VFR conditions will prevail
throughout tonight. Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/080 054/093 063/085 056/081 053/076 052/077 053/079
    00/U    00/U    24/T    31/B    22/T    22/T    11/B
LVM 040/081 047/090 056/079 047/075 045/073 045/076 046/077
    00/U    01/U    36/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 046/082 053/095 060/088 055/082 052/079 051/079 052/082
    00/U    00/U    24/T    42/T    22/T    22/T    11/B
MLS 048/081 052/093 063/090 057/084 055/080 053/079 053/082
    00/U    00/U    12/T    42/T    22/T    22/T    11/B
4BQ 044/079 049/090 061/090 056/082 053/078 052/078 052/080
    00/U    00/U    02/T    42/T    22/T    22/T    11/B
BHK 041/077 045/085 056/089 054/081 051/077 050/075 049/077
    00/U    00/U    02/T    42/T    12/T    23/T    21/B
SHR 042/078 047/090 055/085 052/078 049/074 049/075 049/078
    00/U    00/U    23/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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