Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
860
FXUS65 KBYZ 011510
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
910 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL
READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE SHORT-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EXCEPT THE WRF WAS
THE OUTLIER IN HOW IT HANDLED THE PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING S OUT OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TONIGHT. WILL
DISCUSS THIS MORE BELOW.

UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. MIXING WILL BE UP TO AROUND 750 MB
WHICH PUTS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS VORTICITY DROPS S OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WRF TRIES TO BRING THIS
FEATURE INTO E MT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MON
AND MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE VORTICITY INTO SD/NE. THE WRF
SHIFTS THE WAVE W INTO WY AND SE MT. AS A RESULT...THE WRF
GENERATES SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SE ZONES...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
ARE DRY. WILL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE WOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MON. MIXING WILL BE UP TO
750-700 MB SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MON NIGHT
UNDER THE RIDGE.

CONTEMPLATED THE NEED FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WAS
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL NOT SUPPORT IT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN A STRONGER LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS WHICH PROMOTES BETTER
MIXING AND GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY BUT STILL LEFT A HINT OF
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY BEGINS A COOLING TREND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ON SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF THE
LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION PATTERN. SUSPECT THAT
MAY SEE MORE THUNDER ACTIVITY THIS ROUND GIVEN ADDITIONAL SOLAR
INSOLATION POTENTIAL. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 038/068 042/075 046/079 049/080 051/075 048/064
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    44/W
LVM 059 031/068 037/074 039/077 043/078 043/072 043/063
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    23/T    44/W
HDN 063 035/068 037/075 041/081 043/082 045/076 044/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 063 039/070 042/076 046/081 049/081 052/078 049/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 060 034/067 037/074 041/080 045/082 048/079 047/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    34/W
BHK 061 036/068 040/074 043/076 045/078 048/075 045/066
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    23/W
SHR 058 033/063 035/070 038/076 040/079 042/073 041/065
    0/U 00/U    10/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.