Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 191544

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
944 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017


Front is dropping through the area this morning with northwest
winds behind it. A mix of clouds and smoke/haze can be expected
over the area today as the front and jet stream sag south. With
gusty northwest winds, high temperatures close to 90, and minimum
RH values in the teens, elevated fire weather conditions can be
expected over our eastern areas. Isolated showers/thunderstorms
become possible near the mountains late this afternoon/evening
with better chances for showers/thunderstorms over SE MT later
this evening and overnight. Smoke will be on the decrease over the
area as winds turn more northeasterly this evening. Have adjusted
sky cover and winds to current trends. The rest of the forecast
remains on track and the previous forecast discussion is below. STP


.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...

Satellite imagery is currently showing the jet stream sagging
slowly south across the central portions of the state with an
upper level disturbance moving across Southern Canada. These two
features will drag a Pacific front across the forecast area this
morning into early this afternoon which will flatten the ridge
that was over the area on Friday. Winds will become northwest and
be gusty at times today, mainly for areas east of Billings.

Models continue to show the winds looking to be the gustiest this
morning when humidities are highest, then as humidities drop into
the teens during this afternoon, the winds begin to decrease
somewhat. In addition, 700mb and 850mb winds are not linked too
well so the amount of mixing is a bit uncertain at this time. The
main area of possible impact looks to be from northern Rosebud
County east to Fallon County. As a result, we will not issue any
fire weather highlights but will headline this in the fire weather
forecast. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler with
readings in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. A weak disturbance
will will bring a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm
across southeast Montana late tonight into Sunday morning.

A zonal flow aloft will prevail Sunday along with slightly cooler
temperatures. Skies will be sunny with dry conditions prevailing.
Models show a low-level jet developing late Sunday night across
South Dakota into southeast Montana bringing a chance for
nocturnal thunderstorms to those areas. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Model proggs have not deviated too much with regards to the
extended forecast, so we are pretty confident in the general
trends. Look for a cool front Monday with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the SE corner of the CWA to be followed by a
ridge building over the region through midweek. This will mean
mostly dry and seasonably warm conditions. By late Thursday and
Friday a strong upper trough tries to push into the northern
Rockies from the Pacific NW. Associated height falls and
circulations should lead to an increasing chance of thunderstorms,
especially in our western zones, by late Thursday and into
Friday. The chance of storms lingers in the east Saturday before
zonal flow returns for the latter half of the weekend for seasonal
temps and drier conditions.

Monday`s eclipse viewing still appears a little iffy from the Big
Horns vicinity extending east and northeast into the SE sections
of Montana as mid to high level clouds associated with a weak
short wave may present a less-than-ideal sky for this rare event.
For Billings itself, it would a appear some mid and high level
cloudiness may start to break up as midday (and the eclipse)
approaches. BT



VFR flight conditions will prevail though today. There is a chance
some areas of smoke could occasionally reduce visibility in the
western valleys and foothills to around 5sm. Slant range
visibility may also be reduced at KSHR, KBIL,and KLVM. BT



    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 088 058/084 059/082 055/088 058/090 059/087 058/084
    0/B 10/U    10/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B
LVM 088 048/084 049/083 048/090 049/090 051/087 050/084
    0/B 10/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T
HDN 090 057/087 057/085 053/090 057/092 058/090 057/086
    0/B 20/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    31/B
MLS 090 058/086 059/085 055/088 058/091 060/090 059/087
    0/B 22/T    21/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    02/W
4BQ 092 057/088 057/085 053/087 057/091 058/089 057/087
    0/B 31/B    21/B    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/W
BHK 091 054/083 054/082 052/084 054/087 056/087 055/084
    0/B 22/T    31/B    00/U    01/U    00/U    02/T
SHR 089 051/086 054/082 050/087 052/088 053/086 051/084
    0/B 00/U    12/T    10/U    01/U    11/B    11/B




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