Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 012212
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

A CALM AND QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. SKIES REMAIN
SUNNY ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE EAST AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP MONDAY MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH JUDITH GAP BY LATE MORNING AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST AREAS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS AND WILL BE REACHED DURING THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG FOR ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HOUR PERIOD. THE GFS REMAINS ROBUST IN QPF AMOUNTS BUT THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LESSER AMOUNTS. BELIEVE THE HARDEST IMPACTED
AREAS WILL BE JUDITH GAP...THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE FOOTHILLS...AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY. CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW REMAINS HIGH
FOR THE RED LODGE AREA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY DOWN
INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY. REMAINING AREAS WITHIN THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WATCH MAY BE MORE IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WITH BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES A FACTOR. HOWEVER...WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCHES. THE MAIN IMPACT
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF
SNOW WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO WYOMING
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH/BIG HORN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND SHERIDAN COUNTY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE LOWER TEENS AT BEST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

FLOW BACKS STEADILY WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY WITH A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND EXPECTED. FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA LOSING A BIT OF ITS STRENGTH
WHICH MAY ALLOWS SOME DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD KEEP COLDER
SURFACE AIR AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS AT TIMES DURING THE WEEKEND AND BOOSTED WINDS FOR
HARLOWTON AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING A KLONDIKE CHINOOK PHASE.
BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH CUMULUS OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA DISSIPATING AFTER DARK. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON
MONDAY WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT EXPECTED 2000UTC TO 2200UTC FOR KLVM
AND KBIL AND A FEW HOURS LATER FOR KMLS AND KSHR. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/036 004/014 903/027 015/044 029/047 027/050 029/051
    02/O    86/S    11/B    00/N    01/N    11/U    11/N
LVM 012/036 001/012 907/028 016/044 027/046 027/048 028/050
    04/O    96/S    11/B    00/N    12/W    11/U    11/N
HDN 007/038 008/017 903/025 012/045 025/049 024/051 026/052
    01/U    76/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/U    11/B
MLS 008/035 003/011 905/018 009/044 025/044 023/047 026/046
    01/B    42/S    21/B    00/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
4BQ 007/037 005/014 904/018 006/043 022/045 020/048 024/048
    00/U    76/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    10/U    11/B
BHK 005/033 001/010 909/013 004/042 022/041 020/044 023/044
    00/U    42/S    21/B    10/B    01/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 005/037 006/010 910/018 006/042 020/043 021/046 022/048
    01/B    97/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
      TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 34-38-39-41-56-64>67.
     WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
      MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
      TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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