Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 032214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...
SKIES CLRNG ACRS CWA THIS EVNG UNDER BUILDING H5 RIDGE. MAY SEE A
FEW CLDS SKIRT THRU THE CROWN OF MAINE OVRNGT AS HIGH-LVL MOISTURE
STREAMS OUT AHD OF DIGGING UPR TROF IN WRN GREAT LKS. EITHER WAY
NOT EXPECTING IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS AS NORTH WOODS LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE M40S BY DAYBREAK. WL CONTINUE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR MINS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES



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