Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 291531
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1131 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will cross the area today. High
pressure builds into the area tonight and Friday. Low pressure
will pass south of the region Saturday. High pressure will build
back toward the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM Update...Some low level (below 3.5K ft) snow showers
are beginning to show up on radar. Instability is expected to
deepen to 5-6K ft by mid afternoon and snow showers should
becoming more numerous, so increased area of scattered snow
showers this afternoon to inlude northern Downeast areas. Snow
showers and flurries will be scattered across much of the area
this afternoon as upper trough crosses the region.

Prev discussion blo...
Sfc low located south of Cape Cod is spreading pcpn into
coastal zones as of 07z. Lgt pcpn is also falling to the north
in assoc with departing wk s/wv and expect this wl come to an
end in another couple of hrs as frcg departs. What may rmn is
freezing drizzle as moisture evacuates dendrite layer and hv
added to grids for ern Aroostook thru daybreak as sfc temps rmns
nearly steady in the upr 20s.

Areas of fog wl occur acrs entire CWA thru 12z bfr north winds
increase in response to departing low well south of Nova Scotia,
bcmg patchy into mid-mrng bfr dissipating completely.

H5 trof dropping thru Quebec at this time wl bring an increase in
showers drg the aftn acrs the north, tho it wl take until around
noon for moisture to return in snow growth lyr thus drizzle and/or
freezing drizzle wl be possible acrs nrn Somerset initially.

Not expecting much in the way of pcpn tda with isold-sctd pops
sufficing thru the end of the near term. Highs tda wl be slightly
abv yda as airmass rmns stagnant. Mins tonight wl be cooler and
closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging both surface and aloft will gradually build across the
region from the west during the day Thursday. The ridging holds
Thu night into Fri, with low pressure to track east across the
OH Valley. An isolated snow shower is possible Thu across the
Crown of Maine, mainly in the morning into the early afternoon,
but otherwise a dry day. The sky will be partly sunny across far
northern areas and mostly sunny to the south of the Katahdin
Region. Highs will range from the mid 30s in the far north in
the Saint John Valley to the low 40s in the Greater Bangor
Region. Mainly clear Thu night with a sunny start to the day
Fri. High clouds will increase from the west in the afternoon in
advance of low pressure moving across the OH Valley. The
combination of a clear sky and light/calm wind will likely allow
some of the normally colder northwest valleys to drop to zero
to 10 above Thu night. Otherwise, mostly teens in the north and
20s toward the coast. Highs Friday will be just a few degrees
below average for the end of the March, with highs in the m/u
30s north to low 40s Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure in the OH Valley early Fri eve moves east and is
expected to be off the NJ Coast by 12Z Sat. The models and model
ensembles from the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are in better
agreement this morning that the low passes south of Nova Scotia
with QPF amounts averaging around 0.50" along the Downeast
Coast, and dropping off rapidly to the north. Most of the
precipitation looks to be in the form of snow, although it may
mix with some sleet or rain at times Saturday afternoon
along/near the coast. At this time it loos like an advisory
level event for the Downeast Zones, and perhaps as far north as
the central highlands, with an inch or less, and perhaps no snow
in the Saint John Valley. Did lower the highs some across the
Downeast zones Saturday and went below guidance as it will
likely be snowing most of the day. As the low pulls away Sat
night into Sun and upper trough crosses the area with isolated
to scattered rain and snow showers. High pressure builds back
into the area early next week with dry weather and seasonable
temperatures for early April on Mon and Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/low MVFR restrictions expected this morning.
Expect terminals to be bouncing back and forth between IFR and
MVFR as cigs scatter out/rise but IFR cigs look to be in place
at FVE, BGR and BHB for the first 1-3 hrs this morning before
improving to MVFR. CAR, PQI and HUL will see predominant MVFR
restrictions. Confidence remains too low to include precip at
this time though cannot rule out isold IFR vsbys thru the course
of the day as an upper level trough swings through.

SHORT TERM: Pockets of MVFR ceilings may persist into early
afternoon Thu at the northern terminals. Otherwise, VFR expected
Through Fri eve. Conditions will likely lower to MVFR and
eventually LIFR/IFR in snow/mixed precipitation later Fri night
and Sat at KBGR and KBHB. Conditions may lower to MVFR at the
northern terminals during the day Sat. Predominately MVFR at the
terminals during the day Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA levels today but
increase this evening with wind gusts approaching 25kts with
marginal seas right around 5ft. Small craft advisory in effect
starting at 00z tonight.

SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory has been issued through 00z
Fri. The next potential SCA will be later Fri night into Sat as
low pres passes south of the waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
3.0" of snow was observed at Caribou yesterday. This broke the
daily snowfall record for 3/28 of 2.1" set in 2005.

Today will be the 119th consecutive day with a foot or more of
snow on the ground at Caribou. The record of 120 consecutive
days was set during the winter of 1968-1969.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/MCB
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Farrar/CB
Marine...Farrar/CB
Climate...CB



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