Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 300052
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
852 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
845 PM UPDATE: JUST MINOR CHGS TO HRLY FCST TEMPS TO UNCHGD POSTED
OVRNGT LOWS AT ARND 3 AM BASED ON 8 PM OBSVD TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH SHOWED A POSITIVE BIAS UPWARDS OF 2 TO 3 DEG F
SPCLY OVRNGT NE PTNS OF THE FA COMPARED TO THE PREV FCST FOR THIS
HR. WE ALSO MODIFIED FCST HRLY DWPTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVRNGT...AGAIN USING 8 PM OBS AS A BASIS FOR THE UPDATE. THE REST
OF THE FCST ELEMENTS FOR THE OVRNGT LOOK TO BE ON TARGET AND
REMAIN UNCHGD FROM THE LAST FCST UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL TOO MUCH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOME MORNING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST
AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, SO IT`LL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY; HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE WE SEE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND LATER THURSDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THEREAFTER, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME
AGREEING ON WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS WITH THIS FRONT. THE GFS BRINGS
IT THROUGH QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, TAKING IT WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY AND STALLS IT OVER
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST MAINE. BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS THEN BRING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY- SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE
GFS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH, WE DON`T GET ANY DIRECT IMPACTS WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND SNOW IN THE NORTH. THEN PERHAPS A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW
FOR SUNDAY. OVERALL, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT, STUCK
CLOSE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THURSDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
GIVES A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE END OF THE WEEK INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT. MVFR DEVELOPING MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TUESDAY IN SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MOST OF TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL, HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED DURING THE TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY
TO 25-30 KT INTO THURSDAY, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THOSE DAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS


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