Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 201033
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
632 AM...SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH. MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO DROP THE FROST ADVISORY
AS THE LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND ANY FROST DAMAGE
HAS HAPPENED. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB




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