Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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498
FXUS61 KCAR 081433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
THE LOW WILL PASS WELL EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. A VERY COLD AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO
MATCH UP W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS. BROUGHT CLOUDS FURTHER N BASED
ON THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
CLOUD SHIELD EDGING FURTHER N. EVERYTHING ELSE LEFT AS IS FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW
PRES ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF HATTERAS, NC. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SOME STRIKES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG A
STRONG OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW PASSING
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF HALIFAX, NS AT 06Z TONIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE STORM WILL LIFT EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MAINE TO ANOTHER LOW IN THE GREAT
LAKES. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY TODAY AND
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE GREATER BANGOR AREA AROUND 3 OR 4 PM. THE
SNOW WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WILL WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
NORTH, BUT WILL LEAVE THE FAR NORTHWEST (NW AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN
SOMERSET) OUT OF THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADY SNFL TUE MORN WILL WIND DOWN FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA BY
TUE AFTN...TAPERING TO LIGHTER SN SHWRS. ALTHOUGH WE DID XTND WNTR
WX ADVS NWRD INTO N CNTRL AND FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA BASED ON
NEARLY ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING EVENT TOTAL QPF REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 0.30 INCHES...THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL TYPE OF A MAJOR
SFC LOW TRACKING WELL S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH SFC RIDGING XTNDG SWRD
FROM LABRADOR INTO NW ME NOT MATCHING THIS MUCH FCST QPF. WE
BELIEVE A WEAK E-W...SLOWLY NWRD LIFTING SFC-700 MB TROF ACROSS
THE REGION IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS OF STEADY SNFL MON NGT THRU TUE
MORN. SO CONFIDENCE OF SN TOTALS IS NOT HIGH. SAYING THIS OUR FCST
SN TOTALS WITH THIS UPDATE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 50 PERCENT
THRESHOLD OF ENSEMBLE BASED FCST SNFL ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS
A FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE FCST GIVEN THAT WE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THIS
EVENT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF WNTR WX ADV HDLNS.

FOLLOWING STEADY SNFL...CLDY SKIES AND SCT SN SHWRS WILL CONT LATE
TUE AFTN THRU THU AS OTHER UPPER TROFS FROM THE GREAT LKS CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE MILDER TUE THRU THU MORN...THEN TURN
COLDER THU AFTN FOLLOWING AN ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THE LAST SIG
UPPER TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFT A BRIEF BREAK THU NGT INTO FRI MORN...A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR IS LIKELY GOING TO MOVE INTO THE FA FOR LATER FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP MID LVL VORTEX MOVES FROM NRN CAN TOWARD THE
CAN MARITIMES. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH 925-850MB
TEMPS (BY 5 TO 10 DEG C) THAN THE 00Z ECMWF DURING THIS
PD...SUBSEQUENTLY...OUR FCST HI/LOW TEMPS BASED ON A BLEND OF
MODELS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS WOULD IMPLY BY ITSELF...AND ALSO
KEEPING IN MIND...THAT WE HAVE HAD NOT HAD ANY HI RESIDENCE ARCTIC
AIR MASSES FROM NRN CAN REACHING OUR LATITUDE SO FAR THIS WINTER.
FOR NOW...WE ARE NOT EMPHASIZING THE SFC LOW THE 00Z ECMWF WINDS
UP IN THE GULF OF ME ON SAT ATTM SINCE IT IS NOT BACKED UP BY THE
00Z ECMWF ESBM...BUT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR
AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AND TO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES IN STEADY FALLING SN TUE
MORN WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS FROM S TO N TUE AFTN INTO
EVE...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES WITH SCT FLURRIES WED
AND CONT TIL FRI WHILE NRN TAF SITES CONT MVFR WITH SCT SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL
NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHEN THE GALES
COME DOWN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AT OR JUST BLO SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE MID
TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEAS HIGHEST TUE MORN FOLLOWING THE ENDING OF
THE GALE PD AS STRONG LOW PRES EXITS INTO THE OPEN N ATLC. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FZG
SPY...WITH LGT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TUE MORN ACROSS THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ052. HEAVIER FZG SPY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEEK
INTO HE WEEKEND WHEN MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY CROSS THE
WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. THE STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME VERY MINOR SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING, BUT BECAUSE THE PEAK STORM SURGE
CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF LOW TIDE THERE ARE UNLIKELY TO BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING FOR ONLY
THE 6TH TIME THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE FEWEST TIMES
THROUGH FEB 8TH THAT THE TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED BELOW ZERO AT
CARIBOU SINCE 1940. DURING THE WINTER OF 2001-2002, THE
TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW ZERO ONLY 9 TIMES BY THIS POINT IN THE
SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ002-004>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



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