Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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464
FXUS61 KCAR 242245
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
545 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod will move northeast toward the
Gulf of Maine this evening and then slowly track across the
Canadian Maritimes Wednesday. Weak low pressure will cross the
state on Thursday. Colder air returns Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
540 PM Update...
Decided to bring more freezing rain into Caribou-Presque Isle
region and edged the sleet line further n into the St. John Valley
based on the latest reports coming in. Still getting freezing rain
reports down across interior Downeast region w/temps hovering
around 32F.  A report from Calais in Washington County was rain
at 33F but roads were icy. Rain on the coast and getting windy.
Reports of 1.00 inch of rainfall along the coast on top of some
ice that occurred earlier. The latest radar imagery was showing
precip ending across Washington County for now w/this dry slotting
moving n. More precip moving toward the coast from the ocean to
fill back in after 7 pm. So, more mess on the way tonight.

Adjusted the hrly temps to fit the current conditions w/a slow
trend in the warming. Headlines remain in place for now.

Previous Discussion...
Sfc low sitting south of Nantucket and continues to head north
thru the ovrngt. Temps along the coast hv risen abv freezing with
temps slowly climbing further inland. BGR is now reporting sleet
and a temp of 32F. Evng shift wl need to watch sfc temps vry
closely this evng. Thinking that BGR may be stuck at frzg for
another few hrs and allow pcpn to accrue, but with temps being so
fickle tda cannot rule out that they wl be abv frzg in the next
hr.

Frzg rain has made it as far north as Caribou with pcpn flipping
back and forth now btwn sleet and frzg rain about every 15-30 min.
Expect that this trend wl continue this evng bfr eventually
settle in at frzg rain aft midnight. Rain wl slowly progress
north thru 3am to a line fm Bangor to Princeton. Mixed pcpn wl
continue to the north thru daybreak bfr tapering off as inverted
trof lifts thru effectively ending pcpn.

Will continue with current headlines thru 18z tomorrow with
addn`l ice accums of arnd 0.25 inches in the Upper Penobscot Vly
with around 0.1 inches elsewhere except for the immediate coast.
Addn`l snow and sleet accums wl range fm about 3-6 inches thru
the day Mon acrs the North Woods with locales to the south and
east ranging fm1-3 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Wednesday night, an upper trough will cross and precipitation
will exit northeastern Aroostook County. Weak ridging will build
later in the evening through the night. Relatively mild air will
remain in place with lows in the mid to upper 20s for most of the
region...except the coast where lower 30s are forecast. On
Thursday, a shortwave will propagate eastward from the Great Lakes
region with a clipper system at the surface. This low seems likely
to redevelop near the coast later Thursday as some southern stream
moisture merges. This will cause a mix of rain and snow in the
forecast area...with rain more likely towards the coast. An inch
or so of snow could fall in the northern 2/3 of the forecast area.
The 12Z GEFS and ECMWF seemed to match well with our expectations.
This system will move out quickly in the evening. Progressively
colder air will advect into the region Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures will not rise a lot from Thursday night`s lows on
Friday. Expect a breezy day with wind gusts over 25 mph at times
and a few flurries.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended models are in good agreement through most of the
long term period. A filling low over eastern Quebec with a trough
that extends southwest across the eastern Great Lakes, and a high
pressure ridge built into southern Maine will be the primary
weather features affecting the weather for Maine through most of
the extended period. From the start of the period through Sunday
afternoon scattered snow showers across northern and central Maine
as the trough pushes up against the ridge. Sunday afternoon
through Monday evening the low will move into the maritimes and
the trough will begin to fill. Scattered snow showers across
northern Maine. The trough will fill and the high pressure ridge
will dominate the weather Monday evening through Tuesday
afternoon. Tuesday evening the GFS and ECMWF differ on the
movement of the next low that will affect the area. The GFS shows
the low centered over the northern Great Lakes region, with a
front extending east into southern Quebec/western Maine, then
south through New Hampshire. The ECMWF has the low in southern
Quebec along the Maine border. The end of period the GFS has the
cold front through the area with the parent low in central Quebec.
The ECMWF has the cold front through Maine with the low over Gaspe
Peninsula.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models.
Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by
factor tool.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:VFR at FVE first couple of hours before dropping to IFR
in -SNPL . IFR remainder of terminals via vsby or cigs through
most of the nighttime hours in mixed pcpn. BGR likely to go over
to -RA around 10Z in the morning with BHB -RA or -DZ through end
of TAF valid time.

SHORT TERM: Terminals north of HUL could see some IFR cigs
Wednesday evening. Otherwise, the prevailing condition across the
area will be MVFR cigs. IFR vis in snow is a threat for terminals
GNR-MLT-HUL and northward on Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gales have dropped down to SCA levels on intracoastal
zone with storm warning dropping down to gales. Gale warning in
effect thru 03z for outer waters and wl lkly need to be
transitioned to SCA.

SHORT TERM: An SCA will likely be in effect Wednesday evening and
should end later in the night. Another SCA should get underway
Thursday night and continue through Friday. A few gusts to 35 kts
are possible by later Thursday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-031-032.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ052.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Hewitt
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Farrar/Hewitt/MCW
Marine...Farrar/Hewitt/MCW



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