Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 201354
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
854 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...STRATUS HAS QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE 12Z KCAR SOUNDING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
34F AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 820 MILLIBARS. SOME FLURRIES
FALLING AT WFO CARIBOU WITH NOTHING SHOWING UP ON THE KCBW 88-D.
WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES IN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MAINE TODAY...OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAUSED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AS CANADIAN MARITIME MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN AN EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
CENTERED IN QUEBEC. ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN OF MOISTURE IS VERY LOW
AND THIN...A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD COVER.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST TONIGHT
WHERE THE COLUMN OF MOISTURE WILL NEARLY REACH H850 AND MEASURABLE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP A LITTLE
MORE THAN 5 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. VERY WEAK LOW
TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A STRATUS LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE REGION. A SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
COAST ON SUNDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW
TOWARD OUR COAST MAY SUPPORT A BIT OF COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK NORLUN TYPE EVENT NEAR THE COAST SO HAVE INCLUDED
LOW CHC POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW ALONG COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY OVER THE MARITIMES.
THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
STRATUS LAYER OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. OUR ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A VERY
LARGE STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL
INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A BIT OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
OVER NORTHERN AREAS HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. A
WINDSWEPT RAIN IS THEN LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET OF
WINDS CLOSE TO 85 MPH MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH DOWNEAST
AND 40 MPH OVER THE NORTH AS THE OCCLUSION APPROACHES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY
MELTING SNOW WILL BRING A RISK OF FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE OCCLUSION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
PUSHING THE RAIN EAST INTO THE MARITIMES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. COOLER AIR WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAILING THE
LOW MAY THEN BRING SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR OR VERY LOW END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FLURRIES/PATCHY FOG MAY DEGRADE VIS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN LOW CLOUDS. WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN
LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO
A GALE OR POSSIBLY A STORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG STORM LIFTS TO OUR NORTHWEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/MCW/BLOOMER



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