Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 300247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1047 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
10PM UPDATE: DIDN`T HAVE TO CHANGE TEMPS MUCH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DID TWEAK POPS UP A BIT THRU 06Z IN ZONES 5, 6, AND
10 BASED ON SOME SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE QUEBEC AREA TOWARD
THOSE ZONES AND NUDGING TOWARD GYX GRIDS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LET
THE FORECAST RIDE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APCHG FROM QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SITTING BACK IN
QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PROFILE MOISTENING UP THROUGH
700MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND
1.40 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. BEST CAPES APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND LESS
THAN 200 JOULES. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
BASED ON THIS THINKING. STAYED W/30-40% POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS JUST SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS AS CLOUD BASE WILL BE 10K FT AND HIGHER. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S THINKING OF OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST W/UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR SUNDAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME CAPE OF
300-500 JOULES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BELOW 700MBS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). ATTM, DECISION WAS TO
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH AS
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AND W/A WEST WIND, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QPF THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/A SSW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW
WITH A CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MON. THE HIGH WILL CREST
OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FIRST 3 PERIOD...A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LAST 3
PERIOD. ADD 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWER ACROSS THE
REGION. BY EARLY THURS MRNG THE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SAT MRNG
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN ME FROM THE NE. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK NE ACROSS ERN
MAINE... THE ECMWF MOVES IT INTO SW MAINE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS OF 02Z. NO CHANGE
TO REASONING SHOWING LOWERING CATEGORIES AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THRU OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DROPPING
TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE IFR NORTH OF KHUL. S OF KHUL,
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT W/FOG AND STRATUS AS SSW FLOW SETS UP.

SHORT TERM:  A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WED MRNG ALL SITES...MVFR WED MRNG
ACROSS FVE AND CAR...WED AFTERNOON PQI AND HUL...AND BGR AND BHB
WED EVNG...AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A S SWELL IN PLACE ATTM W/10-11 SECOND
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT W/SW WIND PICKING UP TO 15
KTS EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO 3 FT. OVER
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES, 1-2 FT HOLDING W/10 KT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KREDENSOR
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON



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