Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 271035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630AM UPDATE...
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORECAST TOWARDS ST JOHN VALLEY FOR
ENTIRE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO
THE SAME NARROW CORRIDOR FROM BANGOR EASTWARD INTO WASHINGTON
COUNTY FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB





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