Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190735
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
335 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push across the forecast area this afternoon.
High pressure will quickly build back over the area and linger
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak cold front across SERN WI will move across the forecast area
this afternoon.  Very dry system so do not expect any precip with
the front, just an increase in the clouds.  With the late timing of
the system do not expect temps to be much colder than ydy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure quickly builds back over the forecast area tonight and
will remain anchored over the area into weekend.

The short term begins with high pressure centered in southwest PA
and extending over the Ohio Valley. The airmass will be dry and
there will be an upper ridge in place across the region. Through
Saturday the surface high will drift east to the New England coast
while an upper trough moves into the central plains. By Sunday
morning the associated surface low will be in central Canada. A cold
front will stretch from the western Great Lakes to the lower
Mississippi Valley. This front will move through Sunday night (GFS)
or Monday(ECMWF) accompanied by Gulf moisture brought in on southerly
flow ahead of the system.  Will bring in chance pops Sunday night
and likely Monday.  Saturday and Sunday will be mild with highs in
the mid 70s.  Monday also looks mild with similar highs although
have less confidence given uncertain frontal timing. In fact models
are now holding off the colder air until Tuesday into Wednesday as a
wave develops on the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weather will continue unsettled into mid week. Monday night into
Tuesday, models are developing a surface wave over Ohio as the upper
trough digs into the Great Lakes region. This will stall the front
in the region and likely prolong the precip associated with the
system into mid week. As the colder air finally arrived Tuesday
night and wednesday would expect lake effect clouds and showers to
also develop.  Will have likely to categorical pops Monday night and
chance to likely Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday expect best
chance of precip will be northeast OH and nwrn PA with cold flow off
the lake. Highs Tuesday mostly near 60. Highs in the 50s
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR will continue through the entire forecast period. Continued
LLWS in the TAFS as the 2k foot winds from the SW at 40-45 kt.
Weak cold front will go through early this afternoon. No weather
associated with the front but the 2k ft winds diminish to 25
knots behind the front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in shra late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will pass across the lake this afternoon largely
unnoticed except for the wind shift from southwest to northwest this
evening and tonight.  The gradient ahead of the front however will
be sufficient to bring winds to 15 to 25 knots today.  Will continue
with the small craft advisory as is for now.  Winds will turn
northwest and diminish tonight.  Winds will remain light Friday with
high pressure over the lake.  Winds will increase from the
south/southwest Saturday at 10 to 15 knots and continue southwest
Sunday and Monday as the high moves east and a cold front approaches
from the west. The front will be in the vicinity of the lake
Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK


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