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000
FXUS61 KCLE 302042
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT MAKING
WAY FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TO ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS THOUGH RADAR SHOWS THEM WEAKENING. THE BLUSTERY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH GUSTS ARE SUPPORTING SOME BLOWING SNOW AS WELL IN
THE SNOWBELT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY BENIGN WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER MN
THAT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO OVERNIGHT.
THERE ISN`T ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS TO PRODUCE ANYMORE THAN JUST
AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS COULD BE A FACTOR IN THE
LOWS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SO LOOKING AT LOWS
OVERNIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET WEATHER WISE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY AFTER A FRIGID
START...REACHING THE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAIN
STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE INCONSISTENCIES IN STORM TRACKS FROM MODEL RUN TO
MODEL RUN...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE STREAMING INTO
OHIO FROM THE GULF WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW. ONCE
THE STORM SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MORE DEFINED TRACK THIS WILL HELP
NARROW THE LOCATIONS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL LIES...BUT
FOR NOW LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 8-10" WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN NW PA OF
6-8".

SNOW WILL BE ARRIVING IN OUR SW COUNTIES BETWEEN 1 AND 4 AM
SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN RAPIDLY SPREADING EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LATEST SURFACE TRACK TO OUR SOUTH THE WARM NOSE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...KEEPING ALL PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. THE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE COMBINED WITH THE
AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT CURRENTLY SHOWS THE BEST
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP ACROSS U.S. ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR...SO CURRENTLY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OF SNOW OR MORE IN THIS AREA. THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP COLD AIR INTO THIS REGION
BUT WILL STILL LIKELY SEE LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS WITH HEAVIER
SNOW IN THIS CORRIDOR. THE TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW RATIOS COULD
RESULT IN ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED. THE LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
IS SHOWING 20 TO 30 KT WINDS. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL START IN THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO DRIFTING OF SNOW AND WIND CHILLS -10F SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST MONDAY WE WILL SEE FALLING OR STEADY
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NW FLOW AND H850 TEMPS
AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.


&&

.LONG TERM /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY /...
NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT IT WILL BE COLD
TO START WITH A BRIEF WARM UP AND THEN COLD AGAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN IT WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF A MIX
COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH A RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ON
THE EDGE ABOUT HOW MUCH FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FEELING PRETTY DRY EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE
COLD AIR ALOFT AT 850 MB. KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL
THE TRENDS ARE CLEAR. NONE THE LESS IT WON`T BE THAT MUCH SNOW.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA THAT WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SOME LOW CLOUDS NEAR 3000 FEET WILL HANG
AROUND UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO GALE FORCE FOR A
TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST
AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION...NOT
EXPECTING THOSE TO MIX DOWN. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE
GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA