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000
FXUS61 KCLE 112345
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
645 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ARCTIC AIR WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE NON
SNOW BELT AREAS. PLENTY OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A CHANCE FOR ONE LAST BURST OF SNOW WITH
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. IT PROBABLY WILL NOT ACCUMULATE
MUCH BUT GIVEN THE TIMING....ARRIVING NEAR SUNSET AND EVENING
RUSH...I CANNOT RULE OUT JUST ENOUGH OF A COATING TO MAKE SOME
ROADS SLIPPERY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA...AND THERE WILL BE A GOOD SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW
IN THE SNOWBELT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH FROM THE LAKESHORE ACROSS
THE INLAND HILLS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS SINCE THE BEST SNOW WILL COME ONSHORE JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST IN ERIE COUNTY PA. THE
TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE WARNING/ADVISORIES MAY BE MARGINAL IN SOME
AREAS BUT GIVEN THE TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD COME DURING
THE EVENING COMMUTE AND WITH THE SUN SETTING...UNTREATED ROADS
COULD GET SNOW COVERED OR ICY.

LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON THURSDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT WE WILL GET. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD
LIKELY BE ERIE COUNTY PA BUT SOME SNOW COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LAKESHORE GIVEN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE. WILL NOT INCLUDE MUCH
ACCUMULATION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A FEW INCHES IN ERIE COUNTY PA.

A FEW LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.
AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE FROM ABOUT ERIE COUNTY PA
ON NORTHEAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY ELSEWHERE. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR THE COLDER
GUIDANCE...MOSTLY MID 20S. DO NOT WANT TO RUSH THE WARM UP GIVEN
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS.

THE GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO THE EAST COAST. WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH...PROBABLY NOT MUCH CHANCE OF A WARM SURGE OR A DRY SLOT.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TOUCH OF MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES BUT NO REASON TO THINK THERE WILL BE AN ICE STORM. SHOULD
BE SNOW. PROBABLY WILL NEED AN ADVISORY AND THERE COULD BE LOW END
WARNING AMOUNTS OF SNOW GIVEN SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OR BANDING BUT
WE HAVE TIME TO TRY AND GET THE DETAILS WORKED OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE EAST COAST LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SUNDAY MORNING.   GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
STRONGER WITH THE LOW.  EITHER WAY EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE PRIMARILY
IN THE SNOWBELT ON SUNDAY.   GRADUAL BREAK IN THE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.   BUT BOTH MODELS TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  FOR NOW LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TRACK OF LOW SO JUST WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.   BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ECMWF WAS
MUCH WARMER NEXT WEDNESDAY THAN GFS...WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO PLUS
4C.   GFS SEEMS MUCH MORE REALISTIC WITH A MINUS 8C...SO LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW COMING IN OFF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK TROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER ITS PASSAGE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA...LIKELY EAST OF CLE.
ACROSS THE WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK AGAIN TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL TAKE REMAINING LAKE
EFFECT UP THE SHORELINE TOWARD ERI AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SHSN
STILL IN THE VICINITY OF ERI IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERS WILL BE
DRY AND WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECT CEILINGS TO GO VFR...IF NOT
BECOME SCATTERED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER NEAR ERIE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. NON VFR CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY.  COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SETTING UP A
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.   HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.  BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP EAST COAST SATURDAY.  STILL SOME DOUBTS AS TO EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ014-
     089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001-
     002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB