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000
FXUS61 KCLE 070425
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1125 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN IT WILL MOVE
EAST ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN
CLOSELY TIED TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AND WINDS. THE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT IN NW PA WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 12
KNOTS AT YNG LAST HOUR. WINDS ARE LIGHT IN NW OHIO AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 20 DEGREES WITH A LIGHT
WIND OFF THE LAKE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT IN OUR
EASTERN AREAS...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AT ERI SHOULD LOCALLY
INCREASE. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY RAISING OUR
SE COUNTIES...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS THEY CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO CLIMB AT ERI AS WINDS INCREASE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE INVERTED TROF THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TAKES OVER. ALOFT SOME CIRRUS WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...IT SHOULD BE THIN...SO IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE MINOR...EXCEPT IT WILL BE A LITTLE DENSE
THIS EVENING EAST OF I77. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. USED LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE LOWS.
SOME LIGHT FOG COULD FORM IN FAVORED AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE DENSE...SO NO MENTION IN GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT. KEEPING FRIDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE...AS THE REAL THREAT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND DAYBREAK. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN...GOING
WITH LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE GUIDANCE
POPS ARE LOW. KEPT THE POPS NEAR 50 PERCENT. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. SOME LINGER PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRY SUNDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME KEPT THE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND LIMITED IT TO THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH. WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM ADVECTION.

AT THIS TIME WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED AND THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING MAINLY DURING THE DAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM FLOODING.
HOWEVER...SOME MOVEMENT OF THE ICE MAY START TO OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPT FOR NW OH AND THE SNOWBELT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
PACK IS GONE...SO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT
EXCEPT OVER NW OH AND THE SNOW BELT...BUT THAT RUNOFF WILL BE
SLOW TO GET INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE ICE IS THICK AND THAT MEANS YOU
NEED A FAIR AMOUNT OF RISE IN THE RIVERS/STREAMS TO GET THE ICE MOVING.
THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE CANNOT SEEM TO SHAKE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OTHER THAN TO OCCASIONALLY INTERJECT A BIT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES SINKS SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY...REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS
OKLAHOMA. THE INTERACTION OF THE SHORTWAVES WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK
OF THE LOW. THIS FAR OUT AND WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE SIDED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH TAKES LOW PRESSURE ACROSS KY AND
VIRGINIA. QUESTIONS REMAIN...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR GETS BACK INTO THE REGION...THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND
PRECIP TYPE. FOR NOW HAVE A MAX IN PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALSO USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MIGHT BE
SOME PATCHY 5SM BR TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW EVEN
ON THAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING AND TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE LAKE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. AGAIN...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AS THEY MOVE AROUND THE DIAL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN