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744
FXUS61 KCLE 011100
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will lift north into
lower Michigan by Sunday then shift east of the forecast area on
Monday. A large area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes Monday and move off the New England Coast late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The precip coverage over the area has diminished as advertised by
the HRRR and other guidance. Much of the morning hours could be
dry but a few stray showers will likely persist. Will keep small
chance pops going this morning since I am not comfortable going
completely dry with a potent upper low parked over the region.
Expect the coverage to increase this afternoon as another lobe of
moisture rotates across the area. Similar to yesterday the brunt
of the precip today will likely be in the east and north ends of
the area. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder so will keep
that mentioned as well. QPF totals are again a challenge with
many areas seeing under a tenth of inch today but a few possibly
seeing an inch. Looking at yesterday temps and considering the
amount of clouds and precip expected today will undercut guidance
temps for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low will finally start to pull off on Sunday but it will
take till midday Monday before it`s impact on the local area is
finally over. More showers are expected tonight with perhaps the
greatest coverage of the entire three day event. Have bumped
precip chances up and would have liked to have gone higher but had
to match up with neighboring offices. By Sunday afternoon most of
the showers will be over the northeast half of the area and by
late Sunday night only some scattered showers are expected in the
far east. Skies will gradually clear in the subsidence behind the
upper low. Temps Sunday will continue on the cool side with
seasonable readings on Monday. Tuesday is shaping up to be a nice
day for early October with abundant sunshine and readings in the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models differ some on how fast next upper trough can push ridge off
to the east and thus how fast surface cold front can arrive with
next chance for rain. Generally sticking with superblend with
increasing pops for thu into thu night then lingering chance on fri.
Above normal temps for wed and thu should drop close to normal by
fri as cooler air starts to arrive.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Upper and surface low in srn indiana will be slowly lifting north
then northeast thru 12z sunday causing east winds of 5 to 15 knots
to turn toward the south then sw. Mix of conditions ranging from vfr
to ifr should improve to mostly vfr by early to mid afternoon as
daytime heating occurs. Sct shra with isold tsra will
continue...tending to be most numerous in the afternoon and early
evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers and low ceilings at times into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Weakening low lifting north thru indiana into michigan will allow
winds to continue to diminish some this morning while veering toward
the south then sw today into tonight. As the low moves off to the
east sunday night into monday...winds veer to west then nw while
speeds generally stay 10 knots or less. High pressure builds in from
the north monday causing winds to continue to veer to the ne late
monday into monday night then more to the east for tue and wed as
the high shifts east of the lakes.

With the upper low creating a good temp differential on sunday there
is a potential for waterspouts to occur so this may need to be added
to forecast at some point over the next 24 hours.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams