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000
FXUS61 KCLE 310602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTION STILL OCCURRING NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING DESPITE RATHER MODEST CAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. A SERIES OF
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND WITH LAKE ERIE NOW WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING LAND,
IT BECOMES A SOURCE OF SUSTAINED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAKE AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT INTO THE SNOW BELT COUNTIES FROM CALE TO ERIE.
THE DEEP WIND SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS MAY INCREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS
THE IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO WI SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE INCREASED SHEAR MAY HELP ORGANIZE THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE LAKE. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS AGAIN.

WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES IN THE SNOWBELT. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT YNG THROUGH 07Z THEN EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE PRIOR TO 12Z...AND INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR -SHRA FROM 09-13Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT ERI DURING THIS TIME BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. AS MID CLOUDS DEPART TO THE EAST...AN AREA OF
STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE OHIO...ALREADY IN THE VICINITY OF
CAK BUT WILL LIKELY FILL IN AT YNG TOO. IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR LIKELY
AT CAK/YNG THROUGH 13Z AND MAY EXPAND WESTWARD TO MFD. SCT-BKN VFR
CU FIELD WILL FILL IN 18-20Z. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KOSARIK