Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 021725
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DTX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR
ABOVE 850 MB. RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. WILL LOWER THE POPS
FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WILL LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED. A LAKE SHADOW
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH KERI ALREADY CLEAR AND KCLE TO FOLLOW.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
CLEAR TO SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK



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