Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 111808
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
108 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper system will track across the lower lakes tonight dragging
an arctic front across the forecast area.   Lake effect snow will
develop Tuesday and continue through Wednesday afternoon.   A
second clipper will track across the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Snow to the east has exited with maybe just a flurry possible
through midday. To the west across MI light snow has begun to
fall. Some of this will make it into Toledo during the late
morning/early afternoon, but not last very long as this area of
precip is expected to lift northeast. Highs may be a few degrees
warmer than yesterday and will stick with the lower 30s. Will be
looking closely at the upcoming system for decisions on headline
changes/additions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Continued the winter snow watch for the inland snowbelt through
Wednesday afternoon. Models continue in good agreement tracking
low pressure system, currently located ND/MN border, across the
lower lakes tonight forcing an arctic front across the area.
Widespread light snow will spread across the entire forecast
area tonight, with up to 2 to 4 inches possible higher
elevations of the snowbelt. Could see a lull late Tuesday
morning, but expect snow to intensify Tuesday afternoon as a
strong upper level short wave sweeps across the lake.

By Tuesday night, models are in good agreement showing low
pressure in northern NY and arctic air plunging into the region
in northwest flow behind the system. There will be ongoing lake
effect snow across northeast Ohio and northwest PA and it should
continue heavy at times through the night. Many positives
including extreme instability 850mb to the lake (BUFKIT), deep
moisture and favorable dendrite growth. Negatives include a
short fetch and a quick transit time with boundary layer flow at
40 knots. Expect a multiband event with orographic lift a
significant contributing factor. Will have accums Tuesday night
roughly 5 to 7 inches. Models pull moisture east of the area
during the morning Wednesday but overrunning moisture ahead of
next low approaching Chicago at 00Z Thursday will be increasing
from the west during the afternoon. Expect lake effect snow to
decrease through the late morning and early afternoon as
moisture moves east however lake effect may pick up again as
winds turn more westerly and moisture increases again late
afternoon. Will have roughly 2-4 inches for the day. Wednesday
night and Thursday low pressure will move east across the area.
Will have likely pops across the snowbelt and chance pops
elsewhere Wednesday night. Thursday chance to slight chance.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday through Sunday will be dominated by two system.  The first
low moves east across the central lakes Friday.  Enough moisture
gets into the region for chance pops north/northeast.  The second
system moves east across the northern lakes Saturday pulling warmer
and drier air into the region Saturday and Sunday. Expect highs
friday 28 to 32. Highs Saturday and Sunday upper 30s to lower
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Low pressure over northern Illinois will move east across Lake
Erie tonight, pulling a strong cold front across the area. Light
snow spreading east ahead of the low will briefly impact CLE/ERI
early this afternoon with another brief burst of snow possible
at all terminals later this afternoon/early evening as the low
approaches. Snow will become more widespread overnight as the
low passes to the east with widespread IFR conditions on the
backside of the low. Southerly winds will shift to the west and
northwest behind the low and increase to 15-20 knots with gusts
to 30 knots into Tuesday.

Snow will taper off at northwest and inland sites between 12-15Z
Tuesday while continuing at CLE/YNG/ERI. Snow will be heavy at
times at ERI on Tuesday and Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Lake effect snow will continue across the snowbelt,
mainly east of CLE into Wednesday evening. Another Alberta
CLipper is due Wed night into Thursday, bringing light snow
to most Ohio terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Will allow the small craft advisory to expire at 4am but will issue
a gale watch for Tuesday 10AM through Tuesday evening 10PM. Low
pressure will deepen as it moves east across the long axis of the
lake Monday night. Tuesday strong cold advection will spread in
behind the low as 925mb flow increases to 40 to 45 knots. With the
cold advection would expect an efficient momentum transfer so will
take winds to gales Tuesday morning and continue through Tuesday
evening. Expect small craft headlines will then be required through
Wednesday evening or so for slowly diminishing northwest flow.
Thursday through Thursday night expect winds 15 knots or below.
Friday southwest flow will increase to around 20 knots by the end of
the day.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through
     Wednesday afternoon for OHZ013-014.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through
     Wednesday afternoon for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     LEZ145>149-165>169.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday
     for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...DJB/TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK


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