Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 251724
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.  SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SEEING SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR. MUCH OF THIS IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH TRACE AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS IT
PASSES OVERHEAD. STILL LOOKS AS IF THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE ITS MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER. IF IT
DOES OCCUR IT SHOULD NOT GET VERY STRONG WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
UNDER 500 JOULES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS NW OHIO THIS MORNING BUT HAVE NOT
RESULTED IN ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN A PASSING SPRINKLE/VERY BRIEF SHOWER.

OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH SKIES
GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL LIMIT OUR HEATING
A BIT BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RIDING NORTHWARD ON A 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. AS THIS JET SHIFTS
EASTWARD IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO NW PA. STILL
NOT SEEING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ANY OF THIS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BUT IMAGINE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE HILLS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO COULD OCCUR.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING 80 DEGREES.
HAVE EVEN NUDGED THE LAKESHORE AREAS UP TO NEAR 80 WITH THE
SOUTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON
TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.  ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE HEAD
OF AN 850MB JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
WFO CLE AREA HIGHLIGHTED AS MARGINAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AMPLE SUN SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING THE FRONT WITH THE
00Z/25 GFS RUNNING NEARLY 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS FOR NOW AND KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...RAMPING UP AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ADJUST FRONTAL TIMING
AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN SETTING UP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND WEST BUT MUCH IS NOT. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF FORCING EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE AREA WITH WESTERN TERMINALS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR CIGS AS
THEY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT MODELS INDICATE SOME DRIER
AIR MOVES IN AT FIRST FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH
AFTER 06-09Z. WILL BEGIN THE EVENING VFR WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
TO MVFR IN FOG/MIST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST HALF. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SSW THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS
AT TIMES.  THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
IN SCT SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY WITH WINDS WEST OF VERMILION
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE WAVE RESPONSE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON WINDS THIS MORNING AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON IF
WINDS CREEP UP HIGH ENOUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/TK






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