Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 312048
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
348 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 348 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

The big picture on the water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the
Nation is currently dominated by a high amplitude pattern, with a
eastern Canadian trough juxtaposed against our Rocky Mountain ridge,
thus leaving the Central Plains under the influence of a northwest
flow. Of additional note, a cutoff circulation, that was spinning
over the Four Corners region recently, is seen shearing apart across
Kansas and Missouri this afternoon as the circulation continues to
get absorbed into the mean westerlies that are diving under the
Canadian trough. A little closer to home, the northwest flow is
helping move a bit of dry Canadian air south, which will spread
across Kansas and Missouri tonight into Thursday; taking the edge off
the humidity and ultimately giving the region a break from the on-
again-off-again rain chances that have prevailed of late. Otherwise,
the next few days will see the Rocky Mountain ridge continued to
progress east as a large trough makes landfall across the West Coast.

We will see the shearing circulation across the Central Plains
settle to our south tonight, with a dry Canadian high just to our
north sweeping in for a few days. This will knock temperatures down
into the 70s to around 80 for Thursday and into the weekend, with
widespread temperatures back into the 80s by Sunday or Monday.
Showers will linger under the shear axis into the early evening hours
as this activity slowly settles south, with clear to partly clear
skies are expected to move in overnight. This might lead to a bit of
patchy fog, so have thrown a mention of it in for Thursday morning.

Otherwise...it looks like dry weather will prevail through the
weekend with a glancing potential for storms returning Sunday to
areas of extreme northeast Kansas and far northwest Missouri. The
returning rain chances will be a result of a trough moving into the
West Coast, which will help transition the prevailing flow to more of
a southwest one for the Central Plains. Currently, the advertised
shortwave troughs, expected to eject from the base of the larger mean
western trough early next week, are expected to be far enough west to
limit the local potential for rain. However, that will likely change
by the middle of next work week as the western trough starts to lift
out, likely resulting in our next widespread chance of storms.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

IFR and MVFR conditions continue to linger across western Missouri
early this afternoon, though views to the north do show clearing
skies working south. As the drier air moves in this afternoon the
lingering rain and low clouds will clear out leaving the remainder
of this TAF cycle with mostly VFR conditions. Only issue might be a
bit of fog in the morning under clear skies and light winds.
Currently, think the fog will be worst in KSTJ, but will have to
monitor for the KC sites farther south.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter


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