Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 300425
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1125 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.
Tonight - Tuesday:
This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.
Tuesday night - Wednesday:
While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.
Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.
Thursday - Sunday:
An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. An upper-
level layer of smoke is currently over the terminal sites and will
likely remain in place through much of the period. Cloud cover will
begin to develop over the afternoon hours Tuesday with convection
becoming a factor toward the end of the period. This activity will
develop from the northwest and continue through the overnight hours
Tuesday and through Wednesday morning.