Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 222348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
648 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated to widely scattered storms have developed along several
preexisting outflow/differential heating boundaries in portions of
southwest Nebraska and much of Kansas, and will drift and develop to
the northeast over the next several hours. Earlier convection that
tried to develop into the KC metro immediately flattened, possibly
indicating subsidence under the upper high and/or some inversion
where cloud cover has been persistent this morning through the early
afternoon. These two factors may prevent much southeastward
development of storms` current location, although partial heating
over the next few hours and outflow boundary interaction could allow
storms to sneak as far south as I-70 later this evening.

Additional storms may develop along the northern edge of the low-
level jet tonight, lifting northeast across the northern half of the
CWA from late evening through the early morning hours. Strong to
severe storms are not anticipated due to very weak upper level flow,
but some briefly gusty winds are possible with stronger storms. The
LLJ should push any residual boundaries north of the CWA by tomorrow
morning, ending precipitation chances shortly after sunrise.

Storm chances will be low for Saturday with the CWA remaining well
into the warm sector, and the lack of cloud cover as well as a small
increase in 850 temperatures and slightly deeper mixing should get
temperatures well into the mid to even upper 90s for Saturday. Have
kept the heat advisory extended into Saturday with air temperatures
close to 100 and heat indices in the lower 100s. A cold front will
start to sweep into the central U.S. on Sunday as an upper trough
lifts into the northern Plains, further enhancing mixing across the
CWA and dropping dewpoints during the afternoon. 850 hPa temps
should be comparable if not a degree or two cooler on Sunday, and
will combine with lower afternoon dewpoints to keep heat indices in
the 98-102 range, so have opted not to extend the heat advisory into
Sunday at this time.

Precipitation chances will start to increase by the end of the
weekend as the upper trough edges closer to the CWA, possibly
allowing for some nocturnal thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday
morning and again Monday night into Tuesday morning. High temps for
Monday and Tuesday will remain in the 90s south of the surface
front; then, storm chances will become more widespread Tuesday
through Wednesday as the cold front pushes through the region, and
temperatures will decrease into the 80s by Wednesday and Thursday
behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated storms south of the metro readily apparent on radar at time
of fcst issuance. Current thinking is bulk of activity should remain
south of Metro terminals as storms track east along an outflow
boundary. For now...have elected to hold onto a VCTS mention for both
MKC and MCI through 2z just in case unexpected northward movement
occurs. Overnight...warm front expected to lift north through the
area with fcst models suggesting developing convection north of the
Metro. Have elected to offer a VCTS mention at STJ after 4z to
account for possible activity near the terminal overnight. After
12z...any nocturnal convection should begin to fade as main front
continues lifting north. Southwest winds between 5-10 kts expected
through the daylight hrs.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...32






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