Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 262346
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 255 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

Widespread cloud cover and scattered showers have persisted
through the day likely in response to a mid/upper trough which is
currently pushing through the area this hour. The axis of this
trough appears to be over central Iowa and north central  and
will continue to move east with time. Ahead of the main cloud
shield temperatures have continue to rise to around 90 degrees
with dew points in the 70 to 75 degree range. This has allowed for
ML CAPE values to rise into the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, and may
trigger some thunderstorm activity into central Missouri. This
likelihood is low mainly due to surface winds already veering
that area, but its still worth keeping an eye on that area for
later development. Behind the clouds temperatures have struggled
to make it to 80 degrees, thus the heat advisory concerns have
been minimized and the heat advisory cancelled earlier in the day.
Also behind this area of clouds have generally mitigated the
destabilization of the atmosphere in this area, and minimized the
chances for any severe weather later this evening. Despite the
minimized severe weather concerns the surface boundary that will
be the main player for activity later tonight is currently located
over SE Nebraska and will sag southward through the evening and
overnight. H85 winds out of the southwest will pick up later
tonight and be oriented roughly parallel to the surface boundary.
This will likely cause a second round of thunderstorm development
later tonight, mainly along the HWY 36 corridor, and more
generally across northern and western Missouri. PWAT values in the
2 to 2.5 inch range will make for efficient rain rates and
perhaps some training of storms. Expect widespread amounts
approaching 1 to 2 inches, with perhaps some isolated amounts or
narrow corridors having higher than 2 inch amounts. Flash flood
guidance across that region around 3 inches for 3 hours have
precluded much in the way of concern for widespread flash
flooding, but considering the conditions of the atmosphere and
potential for training storms have kept the flash flood watch in
effect through Thursday morning.

Once these storms move out of the area and the boundary sags south
cooler conditions will persist through the rest of the week and
the weekend. Next chance for rain comes early to middle part of
next week, but at this time it`s looking like low end chances
across the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

Expect an increase in SHRA and TSRA through the evening and
overnight hours. Increasing winds at around 2000 feet from the
southwest will feed the precipitation that develops and moves over
the terminals from Southeast Nebraska. Some cigs could drop to IFR
but will mainly be MVFR to VFR through the period. Vsbys to be
MVFR in areas of showers but VFR otherwise. Winds will be
southeast and light until around 16Z when they will become from
the northeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-023>025.

&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Adolphson


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