Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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799
FXUS63 KEAX 122333
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
533 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Cold high pressure is streaming down the Plains currently with the
center of the high passing to our east. But this will still result in
a bitterly cold night for the region with parts of the northeastern
forecast area falling below zero. Locally, temperatures won`t be that
cold but will still be single digits to low teens in the KC area.

The next chance for precipitation will come Saturday night into
Sunday with the next clipper system passing through. This system
will mainly impact Iowa and points to the east and north but for
folks in the Kirksville area, another light snow of around an inch
is possible. Further southwest, precipitation type is a little more
complex as there should be a lack of ice crystals as well as
temperatures warming above freezing at some point. Forecast soundings
by 12Z Sunday show western portions of the forecast area with a
shallow dry layer beneath a saturated layer not colder than about
-8C. So anyone in eastern Kansas and western Missouri heading out
Sunday morning may have to contend with areas of freezing drizzle.
Temperatures should warm above freezing by noon in most areas that
see freezing drizzle so it really looks like the morning will be the
most impacted.

There may be another round of precipitation on Monday night into
Tuesday with another clipper moving through the region. There is a
fair amount of uncertainty with this as the GFS is much farther north
than the ECMWF. This also results in a weaker system as the ECMWF
digs further south. For now have just kept a slight chance mention,
given the disparity in location of the system.

After this round of wintry precipitation, the rest of the forecast
looks comparatively mild if not just outright balmy for mid-
February. Temperatures look above normal from Sunday onward and by
Thursday, some areas could see readings in the 70s. By Thursday,
850MB temperatures may be as warm as 12C to 14C with mixing
potentially into the base of this given strong winds and deep dry
air. But is often the case this time of year when temperatures warm
much above normal, it will be accompanied by strong winds and lower
humidity. So we`ll have to watch portions of next week, particularly
Thursday, for fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

High pressure over the Northern Plains will press south-southeast
through MO during the period. Will see clouds stream back in from
the northwest this evening and gradually but steadily increase in
coverage overnight with ceilings lowering during the day on Saturday.
VFR ceilings over northwest through west central MO but expect MVFR
ceilings and light snow to develop over north central and northeast
MO during the afternoon hours. Some snow accumulations likely over
northeast MO.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MJ



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