Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 082050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
250 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 250 PM CST THU DEC 8 2016

Frigid temperatures and wind chills will be the focus in the short
term as anomalously cold 850 hPa temperatures continue to stream
southeastward across the Midwest. Surface high pressure will allow
winds to diminish tonight, taking the edge off wind chills but also
allowing temperatures to fall rapidly into the single digits across
the region. Highs tomorrow will be similar to this afternoon, with
lesser boundary layer mixing but also lesser cold air advection
netting little overall change.

Gradually warming temperatures are expected this weekend as upper-
level flow transitions back to zonal and shunts the coldest 850 hPa
air off to the northeastern U.S. Southerly flow will also draw warmer
temperatures and increasing moisture ahead of the next system.
Several weak waves will swing through with the zonal jet sitting over
the northern CONUS, and while the first of these is expected to
remain north of the forecast area, the second may dive a bit further
to the south. At the same time, surface low pressure will lift out
of the Rockies, joining forces with the northern-stream disturbance
to spread light precipitation across the CWA on Sunday. Warmer air
and moisture should be in place ahead of this system and should keep
the precipitation type mainly rain; however, some very light snow is
possible across far northern MO where the primary influence for
precipitation is the northern stream wave versus WAA associated with
the northeastward-lifting surface low. Any accumulating snow will
most likely remain north of the area where surface temperatures are
colder and the northern wave is more likely to track, but have
accounted for some uncertainty and allowed for light accumulations
north of Highway 36 on Sunday and Sunday night.

Once the Sunday system moves out, the return of northwesterly flow
will bring below normal temperatures and on-and-off light snow
chances for the next work week. At this time, any one system is too
transient to pinpoint, so will better refine precipitation chances at
a later time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST THU DEC 8 2016

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Skies will remain clear, and northwest winds will remain sustained
out of the northwest at 12 to 14 kts through sunset, then will
diminish and become light and variable later this evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin


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