Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 011103
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

For today, main concern will be temperatures under an advancing but
still somewhat patchy stratus deck. Have kept the trend of minor < 15
degree diurnal temperature rises across our east; however, if the
southwestern edge of the deck continues to struggle filling in, may
need to raise temperatures back to the middle or even upper 70s
across east central and far west central MO this afternoon. A few
light rain showers are possible a bit closer to the upper low across
our far eastern zones, but do not anticipate much coverage or more
than a few hundredths of an inch of accumulation.

Warmer temperatures are expected Sunday as stratus gradually erodes
and drifts back to the east, then the expected shift in the large-
scale pattern will bring above normal temperatures back into the
region for Monday and Tuesday. Slightly enhanced fire danger may be
an issue both Mon-Tue afternoons as a tightening pressure gradient
promotes breezy south southeast winds and effective boundary layer
mixing; otherwise, the weather will remain quiet through this period.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night through
Wednesday, and the chance of precipitation now lingers into the
early morning hours Thursday. Convection itself will not be long-
lived in any one location, but a slight delay in the ejection of the
system has broadened the range of temporal possibilities for
precipitation, and could continue to slow due to the amplified nature
of the system. Severe potential will depend on timing and the path of
the surface low, but based on current trends, may stay west and then
north of the forecast area. Quieter conditions and more seasonable
temperatures are expected in its wake, near the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

Stratus will continue to build westward this morning, impacting all
TAF sites through at least late afternoon, and possibly extending
through the evening. Ceilings are not expected to drop below 3 kft
except perhaps for a short period of time at KSTJ, keeping most sites
VFR through the period. Light fog may continue in patches at KIXD for
the next 1-3 hours before stratus moves in, then should dissipate.
Winds will be generally out of the northwest to north northeast, but
at speeds less than 5 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin



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