Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 232304
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
604 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Upper and satellite data showing shortwave ridging sliding east
onto the Plains this afternoon, keeping conditions dry to end
the weekend. Outside of some upper level cirrus streaming in from
the west, there has been plenty of sun. As expected, it`s been a
windy day across the region, thanks to a tightened pressure
gradient and increased mixing into stronger winds aloft. Sustained
speeds across the CWA have ranged from 20-25 MPH generally,
though a few spot have been closer to 30 MPH, and others closer to
15. Gusts have been in the 35-40 MPH range for some, mainly
across the northern half of the CWA. Hasn`t been any big surprises
temperature-wise, with mid 60s to around 70 in place at 3 pm.
What has been a struggle is dewpoints, which have ended up a bit
lower than expected, with some in the mid 20s. As a result, as of
mid afternoon most locations across the northern half of the CWA
are sitting with RH values right around 20%. Considered issuing a
headline, decided not to after collab with neighbors/questions
with area fuels. Slightly higher dewpoints across the south have
kept things in the near critical range. Will keep mention of fire
wx concerns going in the HWO this afternoon.

Dry conditions are forecast to continue this evening/overnight,
with chances of some light rain working in Monday morning.
Models continue to show the potential for preciptiation across
NNWrn portions of the CWA, as a weak upper level shortwave
disturbance crosses the region. Most locations will be dry Monday.

Little change in the sfc pattern through the overnight hours will
keep the gusty southerly winds going. As this upper level
disturbance moves through tomorrow, an accompanying sfc cold front
with push through, ushering in west-northwesterly winds. Ahead of
this front, increasing mixing into warmer air aloft is expected to
result in Monday being the warmest day of the week, with highs in
the mid/upper 70s. Will have to watch western portions of the CWA
behind the front for fire wx issues, with forecast falling
dewpoints/RH values near 25. At this point, forecast conditions
are not hitting critical levels, but there is a little uncertainty
with the timing of the front, and will keep mention going in the
HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The main forecast concern through the long term continues to lie
with precipitation chances, as models show a continued unsettled
pattern.

The next chance for precipitation comes Monday night through
Tuesday night (into Wed?). An area of low pressure is expected
to develop over eastern WY Monday night, slowly moving east, only
into western/central portions of the Dakotas by 00Z Wed.
Confidence in areal coverage of precipitation or where any heavier
band may set up isn`t the highest. Most have the better chances
across areas along/north of I-80 during the daytime hours, then
focusing further south as a second piece of shortwave energy
slides into wrn KS. Some question as well with how long
precipitation will linger on, and ended up with small PoPs even
into Wed afternoon. Not all models keep activity around that long,
and actually have the entire day Wednesday dry. Kept thunder
mention out of the forecast, models showing instability mainly to
our south. A reinforcing cold front is expected to pass through,
keeping breezy NW winds around Tues/Tues night and into at least
the first half of the day Wed. Highs both days are well below
average, Tues may end up with more of a gradient due to the
daytime front, with near 50 in the north to lower 60s south, with
Wed in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Not the nicest of days.

Expecting there to be a lull in action at some point later
Wednesday into at least a part of Thursday, but confidence in
that timing is not high due to model differences. The forecast for
Fri-Sun is messy, driven by a system digging south into the
Rockies, becoming better organized before moving out onto the
Plains. Precipitation chances Fri/Fri night look to result from a
lead shortwave disturbance, as the main upper low is still off to
the west. It isn`t until the weekend until the low starts to move
out, but not worth going into a lot of details, as the 12Z models
have some notable track/timing differences. Confidence in
thunderstorm chances is low, as recent models keep the brunt of
instability to our south. Will be interesting to see how models
trend in the coming days, the ECMWF/GFS still showing the
potential for enough colder air to work in on the backside of the
system to bring some snow. Don`t have that mention in the grids
yet, even since 24 hrs ago they have backed off some for our area,
so would like to see how things trend. Below normal highs linger
in the 50s Thurs-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Winds are the main issue for the taf period. Winds will remain
steady from the south tonight in a tight pressure gradient ahead
of a deep surface low presure system edging east of the high
plains. Wind speeds will be even stronger above the surface and
maintained low level wind shear through the night. A cold frontal
boundary will cross the terminals on Monday, bringing just a
slight chance for a rain shower (chances not high enough to
mention for the terminals) and a wind shift to the west and
northwest.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Fay



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