Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 230455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1055 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Satellite and observations show that the cirrus continues to move
through the forecast area, but the thicker cirrus has moved to the
east of the area. South to southwest winds are helping to warm the
temperatures up.

Warm advection will continue across the area tonight. A weak cold
front will move through the area tonight. This front will only make
winds light and variable and not even change temperatures very much.
On Thanksgiving, the temperatures will warm up to near record high
temperatures. In addition, the winds will be light. Overall, it
should be a nice day.

Record high temperatures November 23rd:
Grand Island:  66 degrees set in 2011, 2005
Hastings:  70 degrees set in 1923

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Thursday night will continue to be mild but there will be a cold
front that moves through the area on Friday. The models have some
fairly significant differences during this period. The NAM has very
strong winds behind the front and temperatures could be falling
during the afternoon. The GFS has lighter winds and continues to
have warm temperatures. Have went with a blend and still have
warmish temperatures with breezy conditions, but not windy. The
differences in the models do not lead to much confidence at this

Saturday and Sunday will have some warm advection. Saturday will be
the cooler of the days, but even then, temperatures will be quite a
bit warmer than normal.

The next cold front moves into the area on Monday. The temperatures
will continue to be on the warm side since the colder air does not
come in during the day. For Tuesday and Wednesday have continued to
have a dry forecast at this time. There is an upper level system
moving into the plains, but the models have different timing and
strength of the system. There is some precipitation with the
Canadian and the ECMWF during this time, but the Canadian is much
faster. Will keep the forecast dry for now and will have to watch to
see how the models handle this system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.


Issued at 557 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Record-to-near-record highs likely Thursday:

..Grand Island (records date to 1895)..
- Current Nov. 23 record is 66 degrees in 2011, 2005
- Current official forecast is 66 degrees
- Even though the Nov. 23 record is expected to be at least tied,
  the actual Thanksgiving holiday record of 71 on Nov. 26, 1998
  is probably "safe".

..Hastings (records date to 1907)..
- Current Nov. 23 record is 70 degrees in 1923
- Current official forecast is 66 degrees




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