Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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063
FXUS63 KGID 300000
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
700 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Aloft: The Westerlies were displaced far to the N over Srn
Canada. A small upr low was over CO/NM within a break between
subtropical highs over the Ern USA and E Pac off CA. There are
some indications this low might weaken tonight into tomorrow but a
narrow trof will remain from the Neb Panhandle down to NM.

Surface: Expansive high pres was over the Ern USA. A Canadian
cool front was sagging thru the Nrn Plains with high pres behind
along the US-Canada border. This front will dissipate tonight
before it ever gets here. The high will remain well to the N. The
fcst area is in a weak pres pattern and will remain so thru
tomorrow.

Main concern is heavy rain and tstm potential. There is very
little threat of svr tstms. The environment is very moist as
evidence by observed morning soundings at LBF/DDC/LMN/OAX. PW`s
will be 1.5 to 1.75" from W-E thru tomorrow...2 standard
deviations above normal. Tstms will be efficient rain producers.

The environment has not changed from last night. So there is no
reason what happened over Srn Adams/Nrn Webster won`t happen
again.

Heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible in and near the
watch area. Just because your location is not in the watch does
not need there is no risk of flash flooding. The most susceptible
areas are in the watch. This was mostly weighted on SREF 24 hr QPF
probabilities.

Hit or miss tstms are possible thru tomorrow. There is no CIN. So
knowing when and where is nearly impossible. Tstms could occur
anywhere and any time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Aloft: Amplification and shortening of the wavelengths will occur as
heights fall over the NW and NE USA...with a sharpening ridge
developing over the Nrn Rockies. This ridge will drift E and into
the Midwest/GtLakes by Sat. SW flow will develop here on Fri with a
Wrn trof/Ern ridge developing by Sun. In the meantime...it remains
highly uncertain what will happen to the trof just to the W of the
fcst area. The flow is weak and benign and model convectively
generated vorticity only increases the uncertainty.

Surface: As is typical of when tropical systems get going...the
Canadian high will creep E thru Ern Canada Wed-Sun...extending deep
into the Cntrl/Ern USA. E flow here should become S Fri as a low
pres system will be advancing thru the NW USA. The 00Z/12Z EC
suggests the cool front associated with this system will sag into
Nrn/Wrn Neb Sat and then lift back to the N Sun as lee cyclogenesis
occurs over WY. This has strong support from the 00Z EC ensemble
mean suggesting above average confidence.

While the front will loose its thermal characteristics...a surge
of lower dwpt air will advect in here Wed and this will
temporarily decrease the threat of tstms for most of the area
Wed-Fri. Late week return flow will advect rich moisture back into
the area and increase the risk for tstms again Sat-Sun.

Temps will be cooler than normal thru Fri and then return to near
normal this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

We could get some torrential downpours with some of the storms
that may pass through. Ceilings will gradually lower for tomorrow
to MVFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Please see the LSR`s and our social media feeds for info on last
night`s flooding in Srn Adams/Nrn Webster Counties where 4-7" of
rain fell. It will not take nearly as much additional heavy rain
to worsen conditions in these areas. That is one of the reasons
for the Flash Flood Watch. N-Cntrl KS also has moist soil
conditions with 5-10" over the last 30 days. These region is also
vulnerable to excessive rainfall. It will be hit-or-miss and
there`s no guarantees of it...but this watch is just that...be
aware the potential exists.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NEZ074>077-
     083>087.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Heinlein
HYDROLOGY...Kelley



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