Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 231229
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Today...We expect a short 1 day break today between yesterday`s
wintry weather and our next storm system that will hit primarily
on Saturday. Temperatures will be more mild today with more
sunshine, but still below normal for this time of year. Most areas
south of I-80 should warm to around or just above freezing for
the first time in several days.

Tonight...An open fast moving trough will swing into the high
plains. Precipitation will begin to develop across our forecast
area after midnight, but become more widespread and heavier as we
near dawn. Most precipitation amounts prior to dawn should be
rather light.

Saturday...Most of the wintry precipitation is expected to fall
Saturday morning, but the 06Z GFS is slower and would linger
noteworthy precipitation into Saturday afternoon. Regardless, the
winter weather advisory headline goes through 6 PM Saturday to be
safe, but it may be done before that in many areas. Unless things
slow down this will be a rather quick hitting Saturday morning
event.

Precipitation Type:
Initially Friday night into Saturday morning based on model
profile soundings we will be below freezing for most areas, but
the coldest temperature in the saturated layer will not be cold
enough for ice crystal/snow formation across the southeastern half
of our forecast area. The model profile soundings then indicate a
warm nose around 850 mb will work into our Kansas counties and up
to around Hebron and Geneva so that we may continue to see
primarily freezing rain across southeastern zones even after
saturating and getting ice crystals aloft. However, further
northwest the temperature profile northwest of a Central City,
Kearney, Cambridge line currently appears to support primarily
snow.

Precipitation amounts:
Forecast models have been indicating lower precipitation amounts
the last several runs and this is not surprising given that this
will be a rather quick moving open wave. Our bigger winter storms
tend to be the slow moving cut off upper lows, which this is not.
In addition, the temperature profile is not very favorable for
good dendritic growth even where it is cold enough to snow. There
will likely still be some twists and turns in the this forecast so
keep up to date with forecast updates. For instance, the 06Z GFS
is an outlier at trying to now create a second area of heavier
precipitation across our eastern zones. Our current forecast will
continue to follow the model consensus with the heaviest
precipitation expected across our northwestern zones with snowfall
amounts of 2-5 inches. Our Kansas counties up to around Geneva
Nebraska will generally see less than 1 inch of snow, but could
see up to one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. Somewhere in
the middle around Hastings we could see 2-3 inches of snow along
with some freezing rain.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Saturday night...The precipitation will have come to and end with
the upper system moving out of the area.

Sunday...We expect to moderate rather quickly with temperatures
back to above freezing allowing for some snow melt. However, am
concerned that we might be too optimistic with warm temperatures
over areas that see 2 inches or more of fresh snow and these
temperatures may need to be lowered some with future updates
depending on how much snow we see.

Monday through Thursday...
The best day may be Monday with dry conditions and the warmest
weather. However, most of next week should be at least close to
normal, which is still below freezing at night, but highs into the
lower 40s, which we should be fairly close to. There are no
obviously big weather systems to impact us during this period, but
there is at least a slight chance of a mixed bag type of small
system by around Wednesday or Thursday depending on storm track.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday)
Issued at 618 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

As of 6 AM...the clouds had cleared out, but an area of low clouds
can be seen tracking to the south out of north central Nebraska.
These clouds may result in a period of MVFR or even IFR ceilings
this morning if they reach as far south as KGRI and KEAR. It is
not yet known if these clouds will make it that far. Overall, we
expect at least some sun this afternoon between MVFR ceilings.
Conditions will worsen late tonight with what should primarily be
snow moving into our TAF sites after midnight, but more likely
as we near dawn. A few inches of snow will be possible primarily
early Saturday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Saturday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Saturday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely



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