Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 242057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
257 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Synopsis...Late this morning, satellite water vapor imagery along
with the 12Z upper air analysis showed the main upper low situated
over central WY with 30-70 meter 500 mb height falls ahead of it.
Surface plot had a low pressure in southwest KS with a warm front
extending ENE. Temperatures have remained below freezing over most
parts of the CWA with the exception of our south and southeast. From
mid-morning to early afternoon the heaviest band of snow has fallen
from our western CWA and this has slowly moved northeast. Mainly
getting snow with this band although cc values from the WSR-88D did
show possible sleet for a time and that was confirmed in the Axtell
area earlier.

Short term...tonight and tomorrow.  Main question will be what to do
with headlines. Seems like we may be seeing the heaviest precip
starting late morning and this should continue into the afternoon,
mainly in the warning and advisory areas. Neither the operational
models or hi res models did a very good job with the band of snow
that began in the southwest part of the CWA. Watching the evolution
so far. my gut feeling is that we may need to knock amounts down in
the southern part of the area. Will decide at the last minute on
what to do with the advisory. If 700 mb low track matches the
progged position, snow amounts will be light south of I-80.

Given the slow speed of the upper low, plan to keep light snow going
in the north overnight and perhaps for a little while Wed morning.
All in all, previous shifts did a good job on this system.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Long term... With active weather in the short term, will keep this
section fairly short. Overall expecting quiet weather in the Wed
night through next Tuesday time frame. By Wed evening the upper low
currently affecting us should have moved east and is expected to
near southern IL. At that time the big picture over the CONUS will
have a large trough over the middle of the country with a ridge
building into the Pacific NW. As the week rolls along everything
should slowly move eastward, and by Friday evening, am expecting the
trough to be set up over the eastern half of the U.S. with a high
amplitude ridge in the western half. We should remain dry for the
most part under this pattern unless a clipper system moves down from
Canada. Temperature-wise, highs should be in the mid 30s to lower
40s which is close to seasonable for this time of year. Models do
show a wave knocking the ridge down a bit for the start of the work
week next Mon-Tue, which could bring us a small chance for precip,
but that is still a long ways off.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Anticipate IFR or below for the first part of the forecast period
as the upper low to the west gradually lifts east. Snow is
possible the rest of the day and overnight although the heavier
snow should remain north of both terminals. Deep surface low will
track west to east across KS and this should switch winds from
northeast to north to northwest by Wed morning. Tight pressure
gradient so winds should also increase to 20 kt with higher gusts


NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ039>041-



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