Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 291731
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

The biggest challenge will be determining any precipitation
chances and timing.

First off, we may have some patchy fog this morning as wind
has become light and we did have some rain yesterday in spots.
But the wind will have a north component and should stay just
strong enough to prevent visibility from dropping below 3 miles
for most locations.

Northwest flow will prevail as a stationary boundary will be
well south and west of the CWA. Small perturbations could kick
of precipitation at pretty much any time today and tonight.
Severe chances will be lower today as the main focus for anything
strong to severe should be mainly near the aforementioned
boundary. However,the risk of a rogue strong thunderstorm is non-
zero, as there is at least moderated bulk shear along with up to
moderate instability. Sky cover could really stick around today,
and keep conditions cooler, which will lead to reduced chance of
thunderstorms from developing. Only minor changes were made to
the forecast with small chances of rain pretty much anytime in
the short term with highs today near 80 to the lower 80s and lows
tonight in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Northwest flow continues across the plains early in the period, then
a broad ridge pushes through the region early in the week. Later in
the week there will be southwest flow. There will be several upper
level waves that move through the region, all through the period.
Timing the individual waves is a challenge and there will be chances
for precipitation almost every period.

The models are a little different on Saturday whether the wave is
during the day or during the evening. Have kept some small POPs
daytime, but have better chances during the evening when the ECMWF
and GFS bring the precipitation to the area. Sunday and Sunday night
the area seems to be in a lull and have kept them dry. Temperatures
over the weekend will continue to be in the 80s to lower 90s.

By Monday the ridge starts to move into the area. This is a broad
ridge and is almost more zonal flow. Monday remains dry, but by
Monday night there is another upper level wave that moves into the
area. Through Wednesday, there will continue to be several upper
level waves that move through the area. Have kept fairly small POPs
for portions of the forecast area during the period. With the ridge
across the area, temperatures will be in the 90s.

On Thursday there will be a cold front that moves into the forecast
area and stalls near the Kansas/Nebraska border. The chances for
thunderstorms continue, but the temperatures will be a little cooler
again, especially in the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Confidence is reasonably high in VFR ceiling/visibility through
the period, along with rain/storm-free conditions the vast
majority of the time. Unless convective outflow disrupts the mean
surface flow for a time, winds should average under 10kt through
the period with direction generally from some variation of
easterly. Now for a few possible exceptions/caveats worth
mentioning...

Ceiling/visibility:
Right away this afternoon, a brief MVFR ceiling is certainly
possible for a few hours, but will maintain a low-end VFR ceiling
for now. Visibility-wise, cannot rule out some light fog during
the overnight/early morning hours but will only "hint" at this
with a low-end VFR "6SM BR" mention.

Showers/storms:
While a rogue shower/non-severe storm is almost impossible to rule
out any point during the period, latest radar trends clearly show
these first few hours stand a decent chance of some off-and-on
activity. As a result, will carry a generic "vicinity" (VCTS)
mention for this afternoon and maybe even a brief TEMPO group,
but will leave out any shower/storm mention beyond that due to
lack of confidence in occurrence.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Pfannkuch



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