Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 291145
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

THE SHORT TERM IS A BIT COMPLICATED. A COLD FRONT PASSED SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT BEHIND IT.
MODELS ARE TRENDING LATER WITH THE BEGINNING OF SNOW. THE NAM AND
WRF...ALONG WITH THE HRRR INDICATE THAT THE SNOW ENTERING FROM THE
NORTH WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW STALLS AND
DISSIPATES...A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION HEADS IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM WILL HELP GET
SNOW GOING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WE COULD
GET CLOSE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS...CONSIDERING A
GENERAL ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO MODEL QPF...ALONG WITH SNOW/LIQUID
WATER RATIOS 13 TO 1 FOR TONIGHT...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL. WENT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN OUR SOUTHWEST...CONSIDERING NOT
ONLY WE SHOULD JUST MEET SNOWFALL AMOUNT CRITERION...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL BRING IN WIND FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND
20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE TRENDING LATER WITH
ENDING TIME...AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL. MY SNOW AMOUNTS MATCH UP
FAIRLY WELL WITH THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR ONE INCH IN OUR
EAST TO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE IN OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
CONSIDERING THE GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM...NMM WRF...AND
SREF ENSEMBLES...I HAVE BUMPED UP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION/SNOW
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT ALSO DELAYING THE ARRIVAL IN OUR SOUTHEAST A BIT
LONGER...CONSIDERING THAT THE NORTHERN BATCH OF SNOW SHOULD LOSE ITS
PUNCH BEFORE LONG. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORTH
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... SINCE TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE EARLIER PREDICTED HIGH
FOR TODAY.

CONSIDERING THAT THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED...EVEN LATE
TONIGHT...I DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT LOWS WILL GET QUITE AS COOL AS
EARLIER PREDICTED...IN GENERAL...AND I HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. I AM QUITE SKEPTICAL OF THE MID-LEVEL SKY COVER
ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. MID-LEVEL SKY COVER IS FORECAST TO
HANG AROUND...DESPITE MUCH MORE DRY AND COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS MOVING
IN. I SUSPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING COULD OCCUR IN OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
ELEVATED...THIS ALONE SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN EFFECT. HAVING
SAID THIS...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS (00Z GEM...00Z ECMWF...06Z
NAM...AND A FEW WRF RUNS) ARE LINGERING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES. SNOW WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING LIKELY LESS
THAN ONE HALF INCH AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO COUNTIES CURRENTLY
UNDER THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ISSUE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE COLD AS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -30F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES. OUR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS -20 TO -30F AND THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A NORTH WIND OF AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH ALONG WITH TUESDAY MORNING LOWS OF 0 TO -7F SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH OUR WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MAKING IT HARD FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE. IN ADDITION...MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALONG WITH OUR
CURRENT SNOW COVER WILL ALSO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE. THEREFORE...WILL CALL FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 5 TO 10F RANGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK WILL
LIKELY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE SEE CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING
WINDS...WHICH WILL HELP LOWS FALL INTO THE -1 TO -10F RANGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHTER...THE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER SO THAT THE WIND CHILL
VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE RATHER
COMPARABLE TO THE WIND CHILL VALUES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MODERATION IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT WILL BEGIN DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND HELPING HIGHS TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A CUT OFF UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. MOST FORECAST MODELS KEEP THIS STORM TRACK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE SAKE OF A COUPLE OF OUTLYING MODELS WILL ALLOW THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STORM
SYSTEM WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING BACK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...IT WILL REMAIN A COLD
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...TO MAYBE
LOWER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

CONFIDENCE IF LOW FOR TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT RATHER HIGH
THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT. KEAR WILL
LAG BEHIND KGRI FOR INITIAL START OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS A BATCH
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT SHOULD HANG ON TO SNOW LONGER AS THE
SNOW EVENTUALLY IS RELEGATED FARTHER SOUTHWEST FROM INCREASINGLY
DRY AIR BEING SHOVED SOUTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     NEZ082-083.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     KSZ005-017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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