Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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418
FXUS64 KHGX 230452
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Dry conditions are expected near the terminals overnight with
TSRA/SHRA developing near Galveston around sunrise and spreading
inland with daytime heating during the morning and early afternoon
hours. Regional radars show convection along a frontal boundary
draped across North and Central Texas with associated outflow
nudging this activity farther south. Expect this boundary to
remain well north of the terminals through most of the TAF period,
but a weak wind shift may approach College Station or Huntsville
late in the TAF period and result in a few isolated SHRA.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period with winds less than 10 knots and variable.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Short term...Storms have dissipated and skies clearing out so
should be quiet warm night across the area. Showers redeveloping
after midnight offshore and eventually spreading inland around
sunrise or shortly after. Minor tweaks to the current forecast
with this update.

Longer term with the tropics...Remnant low level circulation of
Harvey sitting right on the shoreline on the NW corner of Yucatan
peninsula and should drift off overnight. NAM (notoriously bad in
the extended periods) showing the very favorable development
environment which the other models from earlier today also point
to so hard to argue with that. Overall we are still in a dust off
the hurricane plan-flip to your checklist and make sure it is
ready to implement given the current track forecasts which bring
the impacts (very heavy rainfall 7+/surge/winds) from the system
to TX. Very concerning is the slow movement and possible
meanderings in or around SETX over the weekend into Tuesday which
could lead to a couple of core rain events. There could be some
extreme rain amounts if it does in fact reach into the area and
meander around for days and nights.

45

College Station (CLL) 76  98  76  95  76 / 10  30  30  40  40
Houston (IAH)         77  95  77  94  77 / 10  30  20  40  40
Galveston (GLS)       82  91  83  91  82 / 20  30  20  40  50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      76  98  76  95  76 /  10  30  30  40  40
Houston (IAH)              76  95  77  94  77 /  10  30  20  40  40
Galveston (GLS)            82  91  83  91  82 /  20  30  20  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14



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