Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 220954
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
454 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO NEAR CRS-JSO LINE BUT THE DRY AIR IS
SLOWER TO ARRIVE BUT SHOULD ACCELERATE AS THE MIXING GETS GOING
TODAY. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MARCH SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD HELP TO OVERCOME THE WEAK CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE. 87 DEGREES LOOKS LIKE THE
NEEDED TEMPERATURE AND SO HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHWEST OF THE
CORRIDOR IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
PROFILE DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY THREATENING...CAPE 500-1200...LI
-1 TO -2...BACKING WIND PROFILE...AND DRY ABOVE 850. GUSTY WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 9 PM THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OVER THE GULF AND
PRESSING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY MID LEVELS SAGS SOUTH
AND SHOULD KEEP SETX DRY FOR THE WEEK. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION STRETCHING DOWN INTO TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE
MOISTURE CREEPING BACK NORTH THU-SUN BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS HERE OR THERE FOR
THE SHRA/TSRA TO REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A GREAT TASTE OF FALL. FALL
OFFICIALLY BEGINS THIS EVENING AT 929 PM.

45

&&
.MARINE...

WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
RELAXED GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS LIGHT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE NE/ELY WINDS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER THIS PATTERN COULD PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WHICH
MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR LOW-LYING LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST. OF NOTE
COULD BE THE NEW MOON ON THE 24TH WHERE THE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICT-
ED HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 2 TO 2.5 FEET. 41

&&

.AVIATION...

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES SAVE FOR THE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING FOR SOME
OF OUR USUAL LOCATIONS (CXO/LBX/SGR). OTHERWISE VFR WITH MAINLY MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF FROPA.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  65  87  62  89 /  20   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  67  88  63  88 /  30  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  74  86  74  86 /  20  30   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...41


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