Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010420
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1120 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Big changes to forecast package for this afternoon and tonight.
Last night`s MCS forced the frontal zone further south than
previously expected. This convectively reinforced weak frontal
zone may be the focus for a few hit-or-miss thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over far southern and southeast Kansas, but
weak forcing in the low and upper levels will preclude widespread
activity. If a few storms can form, modest instability with around
30-35 kts of deep layer shear will support dime size hail, 50 mph
winds and brief heavy rain. Held onto PoPs overnight over
southern/southeast Kansas, but suspect the evening shift will be
able to remove those once activity dies off.

Held onto low pops for hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms through
week`s end over far southern/southeast Kansas in the vicinity of a
lingering weak 850-700mb baroclinic zone amidst weak forcing
aloft. Thinking highest chances will remain over Oklahoma though.
A cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest
Friday evening/night, as a shortwave dives southeast over the
western Great Lakes, which may slightly increase storm chances
Friday evening-Saturday morning.

Fairly quiet, dry and sunny weather anticipated this weekend into
next week, as northwest flow aloft sets in. Seasonable
temperatures are expected, with dewpoints lowering into the 50s
for most areas. Temperatures should start to warm into the mid-
upper 80s by Tue-Wed of next week, along with dewpoints climbing
back into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Fairly quiet, dry and sunny weather anticipated this weekend into
next week, as northwest flow aloft sets in. Seasonable
temperatures are expected, with dewpoints lowering into the 50s
for most areas. Temperatures should start to warm into the mid-
upper 80s by Tue-Wed of next week, along with dewpoints climbing
back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue linger over
southeast Kansas through the overnight hours. Meanwhile the rest
of the region should wittness dry weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  77  59  78 /  10  20  10  10
Hutchinson      58  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          59  76  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        60  76  58  76 /  10  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   62  76  59  77 /  20  30  20  20
Russell         54  77  53  80 /  10  10  10   0
Great Bend      55  77  54  79 /  10  10  10  10
Salina          58  79  55  80 /  10  10  10   0
McPherson       58  77  55  79 /  10  10  10  10
Coffeyville     63  77  60  76 /  40  40  30  30
Chanute         63  78  60  77 /  20  30  20  10
Iola            62  78  59  77 /  10  20  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    62  78  60  76 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ



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