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000
FXUS63 KICT 232024
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

TONIGHT - FRIDAY:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NEAR/AHEAD OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITH YET ANOTHER
WEAK ANOMALY MOVING IN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BEYOND THIS EVENING...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST AND TRACT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE AREA.  MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.  HAVE
EXPANDED POPS IN THIS MANNER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE ACTIVITY
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
FOR FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY...BUT THINK WHERE
PRECIPITATION ENDS...AND IN THE WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

SATURDAY - MEMORIAL DAY:
THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE LONG PERIODS OF
RAIN...OR FOR IT TO RAIN ALL WEEKEND. THE WARM FRONT WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ALLOWING FOR PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...THROUGHOUT THE PERIODS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS DIFFICULT WITH THE LACKING SHEAR.  BUT WITH COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
KANSAS AND IMPACT THE AREA.  DIFFICULT TO PIN ONE DAY DOWN OVER
ANOTHER FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH MULTIPLE RIPPLES
MOVING IN BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO STAY TUNED...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  SOME SMALL HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY...AND LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 80S AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD.

BILLINGS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

TUESDAY - THURSDAY:
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MAGNIFY DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE LATEST 12Z/23RD GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE
TROUGH THAT IS SITTING OUT WEST...EASTWARD.  THIS COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...BUT AS MUCH AS THE
GFS GIVES THIS SOLUTION...THE LATEST 12Z/23RD ECMWF IS DIFFERENT.
IT DIGS THE TROUGH SOUTH OVER BAJA AND IS MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE. THIS PUSHES ANY STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. REGARDLESS THIS IS A
PERIOD TO WATCH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER IS LOW...SO STAY TUNED.

BILLINGS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FESTER A COUPLE HOURS LONGER UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH MAY FUEL CONVECTION THAT
COULD IMPACT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA COULD ALSO BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
FRIDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  74  64  85 /  30  40  30  20
HUTCHINSON      56  75  65  85 /  30  40  30  20
NEWTON          55  72  63  84 /  30  40  30  20
ELDORADO        55  74  62  83 /  20  40  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  75  63  83 /  50  30  30  20
RUSSELL         54  75  64  89 /  40  40  30  20
GREAT BEND      56  76  65  87 /  50  40  30  20
SALINA          52  73  64  88 /  30  40  30  30
MCPHERSON       54  74  64  86 /  30  40  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     56  75  60  83 /  20  20  20  20
CHANUTE         53  73  59  82 /  20  20  20  20
IOLA            53  72  59  82 /  20  20  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    55  74  60  82 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$