Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211726
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

A few more days of triple digit heat is expected, before a modest
"cool down" into the 80s- 90s Sunday thru Tuesday. Thinking
readings today will be about a degree higher for many areas due to
compressional warming and slightly drier low- levels ahead of a
front approaching from the northwest. That said, Salina will
probably flirt with their July 21st daily record of 108 degrees
set in 1934. Despite continued triple digit heat, Saturday`s
record highs probably won`t be touched. Will continue the
excessive heat warnings for all areas through Saturday, with late
morning through early evening heat indices from around 103-105
degrees to 107-109 degrees both days.

As has been advertised for several days, a cool front is expected
to ooze south into the Kansas region by Saturday afternoon, in
response to a potent shortwave moving over the northern CONUS.
This front should then stall across the region, before retreating
back north and/or washing out early to mid next week. Despite
relatively weak forcing aloft, the front should serve as a focus
for periodic thunderstorm chances, starting Saturday late
afternoon across central/northern Kansas, with chances gradually
spreading south to include the entire area by Sunday afternoon-
evening. These chances should linger through Tuesday. Not
expecting widespread or organized severe weather or widespread
beneficial rains, although isolated occurrences of severe weather
and very heavy rainfall are possible during mainly the afternoon
and evening hours from Saturday through Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Medium range consensus and associated ensembles suggests the
stout mid/upper ridge should attempt to build back in over the
region by Wednesday of next week, which would support a return to
hot and dry weather. However, overall large-scale pattern may
support another cool front moving back into the area by Thursday-
Friday, possibly spelling some relief in the form of thunderstorm
chances and somewhat cooler weather by late week into next
weekend. Still quite a bit of uncertainty, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Could see some
late afternoon diurnally driven Cu around 5-6k FT AGL.  The only
other concern will be an increasing elevated mixed layer for the
nighttime hours, which will lead to some low level wind shear around
2000 ft agl, for most of the central KS tafs, with winds gusting to
35-40 kts out of the SW.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   103  78 104  75 /   0   0  10  20
Hutchinson     105  78 105  72 /   0   0  10  30
Newton         104  78 104  73 /   0   0  10  30
ElDorado       101  77 101  73 /   0   0  10  20
Winfield-KWLD  102  78 102  75 /   0   0  10  10
Russell        106  76 102  71 /   0   0  10  30
Great Bend     104  76 104  71 /   0   0  10  30
Salina         108  80 105  74 /   0   0  10  40
McPherson      104  78 104  72 /   0   0  10  30
Coffeyville     99  77  99  75 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute        100  78  99  74 /   0   0  10  20
Iola            98  77  99  74 /   0   0  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    99  77  99  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...BDK


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