Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
613
FXUS63 KICT 241137
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Forecast highlights: One more day of above normal temperatures
today, with periodic thunderstorm chances today through the
upcoming week.

A cold frontal zone shifting slowly south in conjunction with
weak/subtle upper disturbances approaching from the west will be
the focus for hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms today-tonight
across the region. Activity will be primarily northwest of the KS
Turnpike today, with these chances expanding/propagating southeast
a bit more tonight. While a few strong/severe storms cannot be
ruled out this afternoon/evening given strong heating and modest
instability, weak flow aloft should preclude widespread severe
weather. Main threats will be locally strong wind gusts and heavy
downpours. Frontal zone washes out/dissipates Monday, although the
possible presence of various outflow boundaries and/or
convectively-induced upper disturbances may allow for continued
hit-or-miss showers/storms Monday through Tuesday.

Otherwise, another day of 105+ heat indices today over mainly
southern/southeast KS. Will continue the excessive heat warning.
Decreasing atmospheric thickness and the potential for
precipitation and more clouds than sun will allow for a return to
seasonable temperatures in the low 90s by Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Medium range model consensus suggests the unsettled weather
pattern will continue mid to late week and possibly into the
weekend, as the upper ridge continues to retrograde over the
western CONUS, allowing stronger NW flow aloft and an associated
wobbly baroclinic zone to settle over Mid-America. Actually
thinking the mid-late week period will be more conducive for
storms than the period from today-Tuesday night. The stronger flow
aloft along with modest to strong instability should allow for a
handful of strong/severe storms, along with locally heavy rain,
mainly during the afternoon, evening and nighttime periods.
Seasonable temperatures should continue this period given the
decreased atmospheric thickness and potential for precipitation
and more clouds than sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Very low confidence convective forecast, but do expect VFR
to be the prevailing condition except in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. The problem is the atmosphere is both weakly
capped and weakly forced. The main forcing appears to be 300MB
diffluence. This will be aided later this morning with approaching
vorticity maximum moving out of southeast colorado. Suspect showers/
thunderstorm will fester into early afternoon at KRSL/KSLN/KGBD,
but remains to be seen whether storms can develop late afternoon
in the vicinity of forecast so soon after vorticity maximum moves
through. Limited late afternoon thunderstorms to KHUT/KGBD for now
which should be closest to surface boundary. Chances increase at
KICT/KCNU late tonight as boundary sags south. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   101  74  92  73 /  30  40  30  30
Hutchinson     100  73  90  72 /  40  40  20  30
Newton          99  73  90  72 /  30  40  30  30
ElDorado        99  74  90  72 /  30  40  30  30
Winfield-KWLD  101  75  92  74 /  20  30  30  30
Russell         95  70  90  70 /  30  30  20  20
Great Bend      97  71  91  71 /  30  30  20  20
Salina          99  73  92  72 /  30  30  20  20
McPherson       99  72  90  71 /  40  40  20  20
Coffeyville     99  75  92  74 /  20  30  30  30
Chanute         98  74  90  73 /  20  30  30  30
Iola            98  74  90  72 /  20  30  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    99  75  91  73 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-
051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.