Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 090840
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
240 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 235 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The combination of a cold start this morning and low clouds over
western Kansas spreading eastward into central/south central Kansas
could hamper daytime heating, especially if low clouds linger during
the daytime hours with below normal temperatures expected. Daytime
highs on Saturday will be closer to seasonal averages with
increasing south winds bringing warmer air into the region. The
southerly winds will continue for Saturday night into Sunday with
models showing increasing moisture advection trying to saturate
the low-levels. This could give way to a period of drizzle over
southeast Kansas for late Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front
will slide southward across Kansas during the day on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Near normal temperatures will continue for Monday however long range
models are in decent agreement with a deep upper level polar vortex
developing over southern Canada and migrating eastward towards the
Great Lakes region during the Tuesday-Thursday period. This will
dislodge more arctic air and push it southward across the central
plains. The first push of colder air will arrive on Monday night
and give way to below normal temperatures for Tuesday. A second
reinforcing shot of even colder air is projected by the models to
spread across Kansas Tuesday night. This would result in even
colder temperatures than what we witnessed this past Thursday.
Despite the dry low levels models show a upper level wave moving
across Kansas which could generate some light snow for Tuesday
night into Wednesday. At this juncture any snow would yield little
to no accumulation with much colder temperatures being the main
weather change.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Main aviation concern will be some mid level ceilings approaching
from the southwest.

Surface ridge extends from central ND down through the Arklatex
region. Mid level warm advection has developed some VFR cigs
several hours ago over the TX/OK panhandles and is very slowly
progressing east across sw KS. This area of clouds will very
slowly keep tracking east and will affect areas west of I-135
around or shortly before sunrise. Confidence is high they will
stay at VFR levels Fri. Winds will gradually shift to the
southeast as the surface high pushes into the Mississippi Valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  21  44  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      31  20  44  28 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          30  19  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        30  20  43  32 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   33  22  45  34 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         31  17  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      33  18  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          30  17  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       30  19  43  26 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     32  21  44  36 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         31  19  43  34 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            30  18  42  32 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    32  20  44  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL



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