Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181754
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1154 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Forecast Headlines/Highlights:
1) Red Flag Warning is being issued for all of central KS as well
as for Reno, Harvey, Greenwood & Woodson counties from noon until
6 PM CST today.

2) Wind Advisory is being issued for all of central & south-
central KS from 9 AM to 6 PM CST.

Today:
No doubt the greatest concerns are an extreme grassland fire
danger that`ll equally, no doubt, be exacerbated by strong S-SW
winds. A pronounced surface trough that has been situated along
the Front Range during the night will continue to strengthen in
response to a nearly stationary mid-level shortwave situated over
the Central & Southern Rockies. This would produce strong S-SW
winds that`ll easily reach a sustained 30-40 mph from mid-morning
until late this afternoon across central & south-central KS.
Although the strengthening surface trough will advect increasing
moisture into KS as the day progresses, the strong S-SW winds will
strongly elevate the grassland fire danger. For further details,
please refer to the ."Fire Weather..." section that appears at the
end of this discussion. The strong S-SW winds have also prompted a
Wind Advisory for all of central and south-central KS as well as
part of southeast KS (Greenwood County) from from mid-morning
until early this evening.

Tonight-Tue Night:
Precipitation is continuing to draw the greatest attention. An
upper-deck trough that is forecast to cross the Pacific Coast late
tonight will intensify greatly as it moves SLOWLY east across the
Southern Rockies from late Mon night thru Tue night. This would
prolong warm, moist advection, especially across southeast KS, Mon
and Mon night. A cold front is scheduled to arrive central KS Mon
afternoon but with the upper-deck wave stalling over the Rockies,
the front would likely stall in a NE-SW manner close to the KS
Turnpike Mon night. Showers & thunderstorms would therefore
increase considerably, especially across southeast KS. The mid-
upper wave will begin to lift E/NE across KS Tue afternoon & Tue
evening, thereby pushing the cold front across the remainder of
the forecast area on Tue. As the front crosses the KS/MO border
Tue evening all precipitation occurring across southeast KS should
end around mid- night Tue. The onsetting cold advection should
induce a changeover from light rain to wintry mix late Tue night,
however the duration of the wintry mix would be short-lived.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Precipitation (light snow), may return to southeast KS Wed
afternoon but with a fairly progressive pattern would be short-
lived. A series of weak mid-level shortwaves that`ll scoot E/NE
across the Great Plains should bring more chances for light
precipitation Thu night. The chances really ramp up late Thu
night & this time would extend across central & south-central KS.
Precipitation type becomes an increasing challenge late Thu night
but at this time the greatest potential for a wintry mix, with a
changeover to light snow, would occur across central & south-
central KS. Precipitation type would quickly change back to light
rain on Fri. Some light rain remains possible Sat & Sat night but
the chances are low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Main aviation concerns will be wind shear tonight and low clouds.

South winds have quickly increased across the entire area with
gusts to 40 mph now common for areas along and west of I-135. Low
clouds have moved into extreme south central KS as strong south
winds continue to increase low level moisture. KICT should be on
the western extent of MVFR ceilings today as they eventually move
into southeast KS(KCNU). Should see another round of wind shear
area wide this evening as low level jet remains cranked up. Low
clouds will also become more expansive tonight as low level
moisture continues to funnel into the region. Currently have high
confidence that IFR ceilings will impact areas along and se of the
KS Turnpike tonight into Mon morning. Cold front is still expected
to move into central KS Mon morning, reaching KICT around 18z.
This will flip winds around to the north and diminish IFR
ceilings.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

An extreme grassland fire danger will exist across all of central,
most of south-central KS, and part of southeast KS today. South-
southwest winds that will greatly increase to 25-35 mph, with
40-45 mph gusts, are the primary determinant for issuing a Red
Flag Warning that`ll be in effect from noon until 6 PM CST. All
burning is to be avoided!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  53  67  40 /   0  10  30  70
Hutchinson      67  50  59  31 /   0  10  10  50
Newton          64  51  61  34 /   0  10  30  70
ElDorado        63  52  66  41 /   0  20  40  80
Winfield-KWLD   64  55  70  46 /  10  20  30  80
Russell         72  37  42  20 /   0  10  10  10
Great Bend      72  42  47  22 /   0  10  10  20
Salina          68  46  49  26 /   0  20  20  40
McPherson       67  49  55  29 /   0  10  10  50
Coffeyville     62  54  68  57 /  10  40  60  90
Chanute         62  53  66  51 /   0  50  50  90
Iola            62  52  65  50 /   0  40  50  80
Parsons-KPPF    62  54  67  54 /   0  50  60  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...EPS



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