Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
FXUS63 KILX 170830
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2014
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night
00Z models are in fair agreement next few days and used a blend.
A quasizonal upper level pattern to prevail this week with a
couple of fast moving wx systems to bring chance of light rain
showers Tue night/Wed morning and again Friday/Friday night. Nice
warmups ahead of each of these systems with mildest temps on Tue
and again Friday with breezy ssw winds. Colder temperatures ahead
this weekend into early next week and the 8-14 day outlook Mar
24-30 has a 70% chance of below normal temperatures over central
IL with 40-50% chance of above normal precipitation. So winter may
not be over with just yet.
Low clouds of 2-2.5k ft have backed up into southeast IL toward
I-70 past few hours. These clouds trapped in a low level inversion
with ne flow over central/se IL with weak surface high pressure
ridge from the great lakes sw into northern MO and se KS. 1004 mb
surface low pressure was in nw GA and keeping its precipitation se
of Ohio River. Weak high pressure ridge to drift se over central
IL by 18Z today and helping to decrease low clouds over se IL this
morning. A fair amount of sunshine expected today and lighter winds.
Highs 40-45F over most of area with coolest around 40F from I-74 ne.
1000 mb low pressure near the MT/Canadian border to move into
eastern IA by sunset Tue and increase clouds and southerly winds
ahead of it over IL with warmer highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Even some mid 60s possible sw of Jacksonville. Models bring strong
low pressure into northern lower MI by 18Z Wed and swings a cold
front east through IL during Tue night. This to bring a chance of
light rain showers with heavier pcpn staying north of central IL.
Some light rain showers could linger Wed morning and if they do,
could be cold enough for light snow showers too north of Peoria.
Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s Wed with breezy west winds
behind cold front. Airmass is more of Pacific than Canadian origin.
Highs in the 50s Thu with developing southerly flow by Thu
afternoon as high pressure drifts east of IL. Even milder upper
50s to mid 60s on Friday with breezy sw winds.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Monday
Another surface low pressure takes further south track into
central IL by sunset Friday and brings cold front thru IL late
Friday into Friday night and brings another chance of rain showers.
Cooler temperatures this weekend and dry weather prevails as
Canadian high pressure settles into the Midwest.
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 25hrs. Skies are
clear and will remain that way through most of the period. Could
be some cirrus arriving late in the period, but not worth
mentioning at this time. Winds will be northeast to start, but
then become lighter, from northwest to southeast as a high
pressure ridge moves over the area. During the passage of the
ridge, winds will become variable. Once the ridge passes to the
east, winds will become southeast, with speeds less than 10kts.