Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 022105
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THAT USUALLY MEANS A RATHER UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES/MCS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE ANY DIFFERENT AS MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
DROP INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HI-
RES MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES SOUTH. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THEY PROGRESS
FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SHOULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS
THE REGION AND COULD REGENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING TOMORROW. THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS LOOKS TO DROP
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/PARISHES OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION AND
THESE AGAIN COULD BE ON THE STRONG/SEVERE SIDE. IF TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADDITIONAL HAZARD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ADDED TO GRAPHICS/HWO.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY COMES AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. EVENTUALLY STORMS AND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO MORE OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION AND
BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. /28/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PERSISTENT
EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING LOOKS TO PENETRATE EVEN DEEPER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY RELENTING TO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS TROUGHING WILL HAVE UNFORTUNATE
WET CONSEQUENCES ON THE WEATHER AROUND HERE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THIS INCREASED ENERGY ALOFT AND A BOUNDARY
COMING INTO NORTHERN ZONES AND STALLING SHOULD YIELD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20) WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY NOT JUST LIMITED
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS (AS IS TYPICAL AROUND HERE
IN SUMMER). ONCE AGAIN...WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SETUP LOOKS
TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO EXPECT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALTHOUGH
THE COMBINATION OF A LITTLE SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD VERY
WELL YIELD A FEW SMALLER COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY. OF COURSE SOME
STRONG AND GUSTY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SMALLER
COMPLEXES BUT...AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
VERY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SEEMS PRETTY LOW GIVEN ANTICIPATED
PARAMETER SPACE. FOR NOW THE HWO WILL BE KEPT CLEAR OF THREATS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME LIMITED RISK
MIGHT NOT ULTIMATELY BE ADVERTISED FOR SMALLER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AS THE WEEKEND ENTERS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE OF
MESOSCALE EVOLUTION INCREASES.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES...BUT EXPECT A
WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NOSES IN
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. A DECENT AMOUNT OF DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEPARTS...BUT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE LESS
ACTIVITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MORE SUN TO HEAT THINGS UP. CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS NO RADICAL STRETCH OF HEAT NEXT WEEK
CONSIDERING THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE VICINITY WILL ONLY HAVE A TENUOUS
HOLD ON THE SOUTHEAST SINCE TELECONNECTIONS MAY VERY WELL FAVOR AN
EXPANSE OF ANOTHER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AGAIN BY THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...PEAK HEAT INDICES NEXT WEEK COULD DEFINITELY
EXCEED 100 DEGREES AT TIMES AND IN SPOTS. OF COURSE THIS IS NOTHING
OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN JULY. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR GLH/GWO/GTR WHICH
MAY BRING TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 6-8KTS
OVERNIGHT./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  89  72  86 /   9  12  54  67
MERIDIAN      70  92  70  87 /  10  10  62  55
VICKSBURG     72  87  72  86 /   9  19  62  65
HATTIESBURG   72  93  74  90 /   8   8  28  44
NATCHEZ       73  89  74  87 /   8  18  35  64
GREENVILLE    73  87  72  85 /  53  44  76  66
GREENWOOD     71  87  71  83 /  54  44  75  63

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/BB/15



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