Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 260229
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
929 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low over the ArkLaMiss helped to trigger scattered
showers and an isolated storm or two this afternoon mainly east of
the I-55 corridor. This activity has since dissipated with the
loss of daytime heating. For the rest of tonight, no major changes
were needed to the ongoing forecast. Temps will drop into the
upper 60s beneath partly cloudy skies. The only change was to
update the hourly temps and add mention of patchy fog from the
Golden Triangle southwest through the Jackson metro to
Brookhaven where rain fell today and patchy fog formation is most
likely. /TW/


Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Tuesday: Continued warmer than normal and with the
exception of our northeast, low chances of mainly afternoon and
early evening convection is expected through the period. Mid
afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP showed a weak mid level low
spinning over the Mississippi coast. This feature combined with
afternoon heating was helping lead to the development of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms over east Mississippi. This
activity will spread west across central Mississippi and the western
portions of our CWA before dissipating this evening. Under mostly
clear skies and a near calm wind tonight, patchy light early morning
fog will be hard to rule out just about anywhere but, our southeast
will see the greatest chance for fog development.

The mid level low to our south this afternoon is progged to move
east through Tuesday and be over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
afternoon. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge nosing into
our CWA from the northeast. This will change little through Tuesday
and maintain a northeast to east low level flow across our CWA.
Model consensus suggests drier air associated with this flow will
limit convection over our northeast Tuesday but isolated to
scattered mainly afternoon convection will initiate during prime
daytime heating elsewhere. Normal lows run around 60F and morning
lows Tuesday will be in the upper 60s again at most locations.
Normal afternoon highs run in the mid 80s. Afternoon highs Tuesday
will be around 90F again. /22/

Tuesday night into early next week...

A mid level ridge will begin to build into the region on Tuesday
night as the weak upper low that has been partly responsible for
the increased moisture values over our region continues to weaken
and eject to the SE. This will lead to less chances of diurnal
thunderstorms on Wednesday. Any thunderstorm activity on Wednesday
will be isolated and relegated to our southern most counties.

A front associated with an upper low moving through southern
Canada will begin to approach the region late Wednesday into
Thursday. Another upper disturbance will swing through the Great
Lakes on Friday and help push the front through the region. No
precip is currently expected along the front as it makes its way
through the ArkLaMiss. A drier and cooler continental airmass
will begin to filter into the region behind the front resulting in
the return to more seasonable weather by Friday and into the
weekend. Expect highs in the low to mid 80`s on Friday and the
low 80`s throughout the region on Saturday. Lows will fall into
the upper 50s in some areas Saturday and Sunday mornings. A
slight warming trend will commence on Sunday as upper heights
begin to rise and a surface high starts to shift east of the area.
Models begin to fall out of agreement during early next week with
the Euro centering an upper high over the ArkLaMiss while the GFS
builds a steep ridge over the eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Isolated/Scattered SHRA/TSRA will dissipate early this evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions and light easterly winds will prevail
through the forecast period. Patchy areas of fog could bring
MVFR/IFR restrictions to mainly the HBG area early Tuesday
morning. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  90  69  91 /  21  26   4   3
Meridian      66  90  67  91 /  13  12   4   3
Vicksburg     67  90  69  91 /   9  22   5   9
Hattiesburg   68  89  69  91 /  37  35   9  12
Natchez       68  87  70  89 /  13  27   8  16
Greenville    68  91  69  91 /   8  15   4   6
Greenwood     68  90  68  91 /  20  10   3   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

TW/JPM3/22/EC


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