Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 220858
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED HOT WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING THE MAIN CONCERN. EARLY
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1020MB HIGH CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA COAST. A LARGE 595DAM HIGH WAS NOTED
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION. TOGETHER RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HEAT WILL COMBINE WITH OUR MOIST AIRMASS TO
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 EACH AFTERNOON BUT MOST SITES
WILL REMAIN SHY OF 105F AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW LOCAL
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GFSMOS
GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE TOO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A LITTLE TOO
COOL ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE ECMWF MOS HAS VERIFIED BEST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WAS LEANED ON FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THERE WAS A GOOD BIT MORE CONVECTION YESTERDAY THAN THE
00Z MODELS SUGGESTED BUT THE 12Z THU HI-RES ARW HANDLED THE AFTN
CONVECTION WELL. MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER SPARSE WITH CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE HI-RES ARW PEGS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE DUE IN PART TO LATE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION TRYING TO DRIFT UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE
CARRIED ISOLATED WORDING IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES OVERALL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH SUNDAY HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE AREAWIDE...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY
RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN AREAS ON MONDAY AS MEAN RIDGING CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE CLASSIC AUGUST SUMMER MUGGY
CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30C. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MONDAY
TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...WHICH WILL CONFINE THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
AREAS. WITH LOWS IN THE 70S HEAT INDICES WILL BE A CONCERN. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 TO 107 ON SUNDAY AND 100 TO 106 ON MONDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
RATHER SCARCE THROUGH SUNDAY.

AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION A BREAK IN WARM AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THUS 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL SOME INTO THE MIDDLE 20SC.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 INCHES BEFORE
FLUCTUATING AROUND 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THE MEAN RIDGING WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE TROPICS ARE CONCERN MOST MODELS ARE KEEPING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING POSSIBLE TROPICAL
SYSTEMS OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERN MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES...
EURO...NAVY AND UK MODELS KEEP THE MEAN RIDGE DOMINANT OVER OUR
REGION. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN TRIED TO BRING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS IT WILL TRY TO PUSH A FRONT
INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND HEAT AND INCREASE
IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST FOR NEXT WEEK. THE 6 TO 10 DAY
OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RAINFALL GOING TOWARD
SEPTEMBER.

AS FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH A BLEND OF MEX
AND EURO GUIDANCE FOR THE WARM DAYS OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEX AND
GMOS LOOKED A LITTLE HIGH WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE 100. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WENT CLOSE TO MEX AND GMOS GUIDANCE. FOR DAILY
LOWS WENT CLOSE TO GMOS GUIDANCE. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE. EURO POPS LOOKED A LITTLE
HIGH FOR NEXT WEEK FOR SOME PERIODS AND TOO DRY FOR OTHER
PERIODS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...HBG HAS REPORTED VSBY RESTRICTIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT DUE
TO HZ AND NOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS TO CONTINUE AT
HBG THOUGH 13Z BEFORE IMPROVING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE BUT RAINFALL ACROSS CNTRL MS THU MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF
PERIOD BETWEEN 10Z-13Z OF MVFR CONDS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND E
MS. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE AFTER 13Z TODAY. ISOLATED AFTN
TSTMS WL BE PSBL IN VCTY OF MEI AND HBG THIS AFTN. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  72  98  71 /   7   6   5   7
MERIDIAN      96  70  98  70 /  17   6   5   8
VICKSBURG     96  71  98  70 /   5   6   5   6
HATTIESBURG   97  74  98  74 /  24   6  10   8
NATCHEZ       95  72  96  73 /  12   4  10   8
GREENVILLE    96  72  98  73 /   4   6   3   4
GREENWOOD     96  71  98  71 /   4   6   3   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/22







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