Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 272053
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
253 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES HAVE GOTTEN RATHER WARM THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE READINGS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG MOST OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTH WINDS TO DROP OFF. DECENT RADITIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SEEM TOO COOL TOMORROW SO HAVE RAISED THEM CLOSER TO
TODAY`S READINGS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH
COULD KNOCK A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGHS BUT OTHER FACTORS SUGGEST A
WARMER DAY THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THERE WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
/SW/


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL CAUSE A
COLD FRONT TO SHIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. AFTER HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY...HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER AS THEY GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND BE IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT RESIDING OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER MID/UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NATION`S
MID-SECTION...CUTTING OFF A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS DIGGING TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IN TURN WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW RACES NORTHEAST.  THOUGH THIS IS STILL SOME 5-6 DAYS
OUT...THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME.  THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE DURING THIS
TIME WITH HOW TO RESOLVE THE BEFORE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS WANTS TO MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW UP INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...BRINGING MORE
RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WHILE THE ECMWF...WEAKENS THE
LOW TO MERELY AN OPEN WAVE AND KEEPS ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON TO EASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       37  63  44  69 /   0   0   3   8
MERIDIAN      32  60  37  67 /   0   0   3  10
VICKSBURG     37  66  48  69 /   0   0   3   9
HATTIESBURG   37  64  40  73 /   0   0   3   5
NATCHEZ       39  66  48  71 /   0   0   3   7
GREENVILLE    36  62  47  62 /   0   0   8  12
GREENWOOD     33  61  45  62 /   0   0   8  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





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