Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 221632 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1032 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Closed upper low is evident in water vapor imagery over the
western Florida panhandle this morning, with our area on the back
side with wrap around moisture and isentropic lift weakening as
the system moves to the southeast today over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico into the Florida peninsula. On the backside, shortwave
ridging is building into the area with low clouds and visibilities
lingering in the area. The dense fog advisory this morning was
extended earlier for another hour through 10am to account for
lingering low visibilities, but now all fog has lifted and only
low clouds will linger through early afternoon across western and
eastern portions of the area. Let the dense fog advisory expire at
10am.

As shortwave ridging builds in today, expect dewpoints to
gradually mix out and clouds gradually clear again this
afternoon, with highs topping out some 10 degrees or so above
average. Some of the lingering clouds could hinder some warming in
the west and east, but expect a nice afternoon in store. There is
some slight chance of some light rain in the northeast as the
upper low departs but it will be light at most. Expect a similar
evening overnight tonight due to crossover temperatures crossing a
few degrees, chances of fog will come back after midnight. That
will be addressed later today. /DC/

Prior discussion below:

Today through tonight,

Areas of fog have developed across most of the area as expected
early this morning. Dense fog is affecting locations mainly east
of the MS River and outside of the Golden Triangle region, and a
dense fog advisory has been issued accordingly. Visibility should
improve by mid morning with generally quiet weather expected
through tonight as weak high pressure builds over the area. The
exception could be a few showers redeveloping over eastern MS on the
western periphery of the upper low. It looks likely that fog will
form again late tonight into early Thursday, but there is
considerable uncertainty on whether it will become dense.

Otherwise, above normal temperatures will continue. Incredibly,
there have only been three days at Jackson, MS with highs below 60
this month, and it is possible that the month will finish that way.
/EC/

Thursday through Tuesday night:

A anomalous warm pattern will be the general rule for the remainder
of the work week. This will be followed by a cooler pattern for the
weekend as temps dip toward normal levels. A warming trend will come
back to the region for early next week. Looking at some low end
chances of rain for Friday night as well as Sunday night into early
next week.

On Thursday shortwave ridging will provide some dry weather for
Thursday through Friday. An upper trough with a closed low over the
Central Plains will track to the middle Mississippi Valley for
Friday into Friday night. The best dynamics will be well north of
the ArkLaMiss region. It will push a cold front through the region
on Friday night. Pwats will be around one inch which will be just
enough to squeeze out some isolated convective chances with limited
instability for Friday night. The airmass in the wake of the front
will push our temperatures a little closer to normal for this time
with pwats less than 0.50 inch. Cool high pressure will build across
the region on Saturday from the Southern Plains. Gulf return flow
will come back across the region by Sunday night. Pwats will
approach one inch as we develop some isolated showers in the delta
region on Sunday night. Low end rainfall chances will spread across
the region on Monday into Tuesday night as a series of shortwaves
track across the region from the southwest. Gulf inflow will bring
another anomalous warming trend to the region for early next week.

Looking ahead the southern stream flow aloft will keep an unsettled
weather pattern across the region through the remainder of the
workweek for next week. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Expect occasional IFR categories in the least, but some sites may
lock into LIFR category for a longer stretch. Ceilings/visibilities
will improve mid/late morning with VFR conditions prevailing at
most if not all sites by late afternoon. Areas of fog/stratus may
redevelop late tomorrow night. Dense fog advisory in effect until
9 am for most taf sites. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  52  82  56 /   3   2   2   3
Meridian      71  53  81  55 /  15   5   2   3
Vicksburg     72  52  82  57 /   3   1   2   3
Hattiesburg   74  53  82  56 /   5   4   2   3
Natchez       71  53  81  57 /   2   1   2   3
Greenville    71  53  78  57 /   3   1   2   3
Greenwood     73  53  81  58 /  11   2   2   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

DC


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