Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 280742
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
342 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.Near Term (through Friday night)...
A deep layer ridge will continue to be anchored just southeast of
the area through the period producing a light south to southwest
flow and hot/humid conditions. Convection will be limited due to
subsidence aloft and confined mainly to inland areas of northeast
Florida where where seabreezes and outflows merge. Any storms that
manage to get going will fade in the eve after the loss of
heating. Hot afternoon temps in the mid/upper 90s inland when
combined with the humidity will produce heat indices around 105
degrees. Coastal areas will be slightly cooler due to the
afternoon seabreeze.

.Short Term (Saturday through Sunday night)...
Ridging aloft over our region will gradually flatten this weekend
as an upper level low (TUTT) progresses westward across the
Bahamas and south FL and a low amplitude trough digs southeastward
from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic states. Mid-level dry air
and relatively warm temperatures aloft (-5 to -6 Celsius at 500
millibars) will limit coverage of mesoscale-driven convection to
widely scattered during the afternoon and early evening hours,
mainly at inland locations. Hot temperatures will continue, with
inland highs soaring to the mid/upper 90s and highs at the beaches
reaching the low/mid 90s before the afternoon sea breeze pushes
inland. Max heat index values will continue to approach 105 in
most locations. Lows will only drop into the mid and upper 70s at
most locations.

.Long Term (Monday through Thursday)...
Ridging aloft will retrograde westward to the lower Mississippi
Valley, allowing troughing to gradually dig into the
southeastern U.S. early next week. Mid-level temperatures will
slowly cool off, with a more unstable profile allowing for a more
typical summertime convective pattern to take shape over our
region. A loose pressure gradient over our area will likely
translate to slow moving convection that will be focused initially
along sea breeze boundaries, with mesoscale outflows then
resulting in variable storm motion. Expect scattered convection on
Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon and evening hours, with
higher coverage possible over inland southeast GA where forcing
will be greater as troughing digs southeastward towards our
region. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will remain above early August
averages, with mid/upper 90s continuing at inland locations and
lower 90s expected at the beaches. Lows will generally remain in
the mid/upper 70s.

The 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a surge
of tropical moisture will advect northwestward from the Bahamas
and across the FL peninsula into our region towards midweek. This
should result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours across north central and portions of
northeast FL, with high-end scattered coverage elsewhere. Rain
chances may be raised if this weather pattern takes shape later
next week. Model blends still suggest highs reaching the low/mid
90s inland and near 90 at the coast, but temperatures could be
somewhat cooler if convective coverage increases. Lows will remain
in the 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
Isolated showers and storms expected late afternoon into the
early eve mainly across inland areas of northeast Florida. Have
VCSH at GNV aft 21Z and may also include VCSH at VQQ and JAX.
Otherwise...prevailing VFR expected.

&&

.Marine...
Surface ridge south of the waters will provide a south to
southwest flow the next few days with daily shifts to the
southeast near the coast as the sea breeze moves inland. Nocturnal
wind surges offshore are expected each night with south winds
increasing to around 15 knots. Seas generally 2 to 4 feet.

Rip Currents: Low risk into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  99  75  97  73 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  96  80  96  80 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  96  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  94  77  95  77 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  96  72  96  73 /  20  10  20  10
OCF  96  73  95  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Peterson/Nelson



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