Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 311350
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
950 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST FROM CENTRAL FL
INTO SE GA. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW NEAR THE ST. MARYS RIVER
ENTRANCE. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
MOVING NWD THROUGH COASTAL WATERS OF S-CENTRAL FL AND MAY IMPACT
LOCAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ATLC SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND DURING THE AFTN HOURS. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THIS TREND...BUT TEND TO BE TOO BULLISH WITH THE
COVERAGE. WILL KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20%. KJAX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A
LLVL INVERSION WHICH TRAPPED SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...BUT THIS HAS
NOW BROKEN. ANOTHER STRONGER INVERSION IS NOTED NEAR 800 MB WITH A
LARGE POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO COOL
AT 500 MB (-5C AT KJAX) AND INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH
LIMITED STORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE MORE
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6-8 KFT
BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR EAST COAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM MAY IMPACT EAST COAST
TERMINALS THIS AFTN. HAVE VCTS AFTER 17Z AT SSI. STRONG INVERSION
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS LIKELY TO HINDER TS NEAR DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS AND HAVE VCSH THERE. RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT GNV TO
INCLUDE ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS BUT WITH
A LITTLE STRONGER SE FLOW AROUND 15 KTS AT GRAYS REEF DUE TO
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE OVER ALL WATERS BY AFTN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS MAY CREATE
A MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  70  92  73 /  20  20  40  40
SSI  89  78  87  78 /  20  30  40  40
JAX  92  71  91  75 /  20  20  40  40
SGJ  90  75  89  76 /  20  20  40  40
GNV  95  69  92  73 /  10  10  50  50
OCF  95  70  92  73 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT//WALKER






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