Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 051330
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

...SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE...

.UPDATE...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ALONG GULF COAST
TODAY WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG WEST COAST SEABREEZE
BY MIDDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN THE
I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDORS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOWS
WILL MERGE. STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COOL TEMPS ALOFT (-11.0C AT 500 MB AT TLH)
ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR
AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WX WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING
DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
GULF COAST BY MIDDAY AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS...MVFR...AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN
18Z-22Z AT GNV AND BETWEEN 19Z-23Z AT REST OF TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS MAINLY SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THE COAST MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK ALONG THE NE FL COAST
TODAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY GROUNDSWELL AROUND 9 SECONDS.
SIMILAR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FCST ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  70  91  71 /  60  30  50  30
SSI  88  75  88  75 /  60  40  50  30
JAX  91  72  90  72 /  60  40  60  40
SGJ  89  74  89  74 /  50  40  50  40
GNV  92  71  92  71 /  60  30  60  30
OCF  92  72  93  72 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA


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