Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 281319
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HRRR...NMM/ARW
WRF...NSSL 4KM WRF...ALL POINT TO SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY...AND
ADJUSTED HOURLY POP/WEATHER GRIDS TO FOLLOW THIS. ANTICIPATE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES...RADAR ALREADY SHOWING
A FEW ALONG SE GA COAST AND ERN PUTNAM CO. DURING THE LATE
MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES/DEVELOPS
WESTWARD WITH SEA BREEZE...WHILE ACTIVITY INCREASES IN COVERAGE
OVER OUR SRN ZONES IN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE. MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WELL INLAND OVER
SE GA AND NE FL...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
ALACHUA/MARION COUNTIES IN N-CTRL FL...AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS
THERE. CONFINED CHANCE POPS TO AREAS S OF I-10 CORRIDOR AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS N OF I-10.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MID 90S
INTERIOR SE GA...AROUND 90 ELSEWHERE INLAND...UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GREATER SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES KSGJ/KGNV...WHILE GENERALLY VFR AT OTHER TAF SITES WITH
JUST VCSH/VCTS INCLUDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE. LIGHT WINDS
5-10KTS AND 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK MAY
EXIST COASTLINE OF ST. JOHNS/FLAGLER COUNTIES DUE TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SURF AND MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN EASTERLY SWELL AT 10
SECONDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  74  94  75 /  20  20  30  30
SSI  88  77  87  78 /  20  10  30  20
JAX  91  75  90  75 /  30  10  40  30
SGJ  87  75  87  76 /  40  20  50  30
GNV  90  74  92  74 /  60  60  60  30
OCF  89  74  91  74 /  60  60  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/WALKER


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