Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 240136
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
935 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES AT 1031 MB...WITH WEAK TROUGHING NOTED FROM BAHAMAS NWD TO
ABOUT 30N76W. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
SERN AND ERN ZONES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AREA DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW THAT IS BREEZY AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO
PALATKA... MIDDLEBURG TO JAX INTL AIRPORT TO BRUNSWICK. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
FADE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND S OF ST AUGUSTINE WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN. SKIES WILL TEND TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WELL INLAND TO
PARTLY TO OCCASIONAL MOSTLY CLOUDY CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. MINS FCST IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND
TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THIS EARLY
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO UPPER END OF THE MVFR RANGE THIS
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREAKS EXPECTED BUT WE WILL
SETTLE ON CEILINGS AROUND 3K FEET FOR NOW. WITH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
DURING THE MID MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL INCREASE TO LOW
END VFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEADY AND AT TIMES BREEZY
EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED AFTER 15Z WITH SOME ISOLD PASSING HIT AND
MISS SHWRS AND TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PUT IN TAFS...DUE TO ISOLD AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT
NEARSHORE AND NEAR 20 KT OFFSHORE. WAVES UP TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE AND 3-
5 FT NEARSHORE. BASED ON GUIDANCE AND SHIP REPORT HAVE RAISED AN SCA
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUN AM. ALSO TWEAKED WINDS AND
SEAS UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  87  68  89 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  72  83  74  84 /  20  10  10  20
JAX  70  85  70  87 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  74  84  74  85 /  20  20  10  20
GNV  69  89  68  91 /  10  20  10  20
OCF  71  91  70  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
     COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/CORDERO/GUILLET


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