Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 011925
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTN...WITH ANCHORING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST TO THE NE...AND WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA TO THE SW.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN
BETWEEN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE TRENDING TO FILL IN
SOME CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN...AND WILL USE LOW END NUMEROUS
POPS ACROSS NE FL INTO EXTREME SE GA FOR A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD.
THE TROUGH WILL NUDGE NORTH TNGT...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP CONVECTION RATHER
LIMITED GIVEN DENSE CLOUD COVER...WILL CAP TSTM COVERAGE AT
SCATTERED. THE LIMITED CONVECTION WILL ALSO REDUCE THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT GIVEN THE RICH TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE. LOWS IN THE MID
70S WILL PREVAIL TNGT.

WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR GA BY
AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL
BEGIN...WITH DEEP MOIST W/SW FLOW AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS
PLAYING A LARGER ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVEL STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...STILL EXPECT AN ENHANCED
COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS...WITH NUMEROUS POPS CLOSER TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY INLAND. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL PREVAIL.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... BROAD SFC
LOW PRES MEANDERING ACROSS SRN AL/NRN FL AND SRN GA IN COMBINATION
WITH PWATS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THU ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR AND S OF
A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM/TROUGH OVER
NRN FL WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCT TO BRIEFLY NMRS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT POPS MAY BE RAISED IN SUBSEQUENT
FCSTS...GIVEN THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRANSLATE W TO E
OVER NERN FL THAT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER POPS. EURO AND GFS DIFFER ON
WHEN AND EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONGER VORT LOBE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MAINLY ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES/TROUGH NOTED
IN THE GFS NEAR THE NE FL/SE GA COAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WHILE WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE QSTNRY OFF THE NE FL COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NERN U.S. AND HELP FORCE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE TO NOSE DOWN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS CREATING NELY TO
E FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS INTO SE GA AND EVENTUALLY INTO NE FL AS WELL
WITH HIGHS MORESO IN THE 80S THAN THE LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCE WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ...MAINLY FOR NE FL AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF SE GA
AND NE FL. LOWER POPS IN THE MID SCT RANGE FOR INLAND SE GA. COASTAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...PUSHING INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF STORMS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
TSTMS THIS AFTN...AND WILL USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL SITES
EXCEPT SGJ 20-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE E/NE LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA FOR NOW.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  93 /  20  40  30  30
SSI  76  86  76  87 /  30  50  40  40
JAX  75  88  74  90 /  40  60  40  50
SGJ  76  88  75  88 /  30  60  40  60
GNV  73  90  72  91 /  40  50  30  60
OCF  73  91  73  92 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHASHY



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