Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 232000
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
300 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.Near Term.../through Saturday/...

Moist Southeast flow will continue to produce cumulus clouds this
afternoon, along with a few showers. The clouds will dissipate this
evening, with the loss of daytime heating. With low level moisture
persisting, fog and stratus are expected to develop overnight, with
dense fog possible into Saturday morning. In addition, a few showers
will be a possibility Saturday morning, as moisture advects in from
the Atlantic. Clouds are expected to dissipate Saturday afternoon,
with a trend toward sunshine. Temperatures will continue above
normal this period.

.SHORT TERM...Saturday night through Monday...

Sat night and Sunday...Deep south to southwest flow expected ahead
of the approaching large trough centered over central CONUS.
Isolated showers possible across parts of northeast FL Saturday
night but otherwise dry conditions with substantial dry air
above a subsidence inversion around 5000-8000 ft. Shortwave
energy shifting northeast on east side of large trough will help
drive moisture and cold front eastward across the southeast states
on Sunday. Some deeper moisture ahead of the front moves into
southeast GA which may help develop a few showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm though instability looks weak with CAPE values of
about 600 J/kg or less. Warm overnight lows in the 60s Saturday
night with record highs appearing likely Sunday pushing through
the mid 80s...with a couple of upper 80s reports not out of the
question.

Both GFS and ECWMF bring cold front and wave of low pressure into
southern GA Sunday night accompanied by showers and a possible
thunderstorm. Best lift and moisture still remain just to the west
of our northwest zones 12z Monday. Warm overnight lows in the
lower to mid 60s due to southwest flow and increased clouds.
Monday...we ramp up POPs to 40-60 percent in southeast GA and
20-40 percent across northeast FL as the front pushes into
southeast GA and the central FL panhandle. Not much instability to
work with but a few storms are possible but prior dry air aloft
and weak lapse rates will likely not encourage strong updrafts.
Weak front continues to sag southeastward Monday night and at
least a few showers expected. High temps on Monday will be
tempered by increased clouds and precip with 70s anticipated in
southeast GA and upper 70s to lower 80s in northeast FL.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

Front drops southward into central FL by Tuesday aftn as sfc high
pressure builds north of the area and expect lowering chances
with just isolated showers over srn most zones first portion of
the day. Highs drop back into the 70s Tuesday so still a little
above normal for late February.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...weak cold front initially south of
the area will move back as a warm front with increasing clouds
again and low chance of showers. Some timing differences in GFS
and ECMWF with frontal positions so fairly low confidence in the
specifics of the forecast but overall warmer conditions look
likely again Wed into Thu as forecast area returns in the warm
sector ahead of the next cold front. Possible cold frontal passage
expected by Thursday Night-early Friday time frame but details
still quite uncertain at this time frame.

&&

.Aviation...

Cumulus clouds will dissipate this evening. Fog and stratus are
expected to develop Overnight, and continue early Saturday morning,
with IFR and lower conditions anticipated.

&&

.Marine...

High pressure will be Northeast of the region through Tonight, then
to the East for Saturday and Sunday. The high will sink further
South Monday, as a cold front crosses the region from the Northwest.
High pressure will build to the North Tuesday, then to the Northeast
mid week. Another cold front is expected later in the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Maximum Temps for Feb 23rd...
JAX 85/1962...GNV 87/1962...AMG 82/2012...SSI 82/2012

Record High Minimum Temps for Feb 23rd...
JAX 67/1962...GNV 66/1979...AMG 67/2012...SSI 65/2012

Record High Maximum Temps for Feb 24th...
JAX 88/1962...GNV 88/1962...AMG 85/2012...SSI 84/2012

Record High Maximum Temps for Feb 25th...
JAX 85/2001...GNV 85/1962...AMG 83/2001...SSI 80/2017

All-Time Record High Maximum Temps for the month of February...
JAX 88 on 02-26-1962
GNV 88 on 02-26-1971
AMG 87 on 02-21-2018
SSI 85 on 02-28-1962

All-Time Record High Minimum Temps for the month of February...
JAX 70 on 02-22-1961
GNV 70 on 02-28-1929
AMG 69 on 02-21-2018
SSI 66 on 02-21-2018

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  81  62  84 /  10   0   0  30
SSI  63  71  63  79 /  20  20  10  10
JAX  62  80  64  84 /  20  20  10  20
SGJ  64  77  66  82 /  20  20  10  20
GNV  62  82  64  85 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  62  83  65  85 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

23/Shashy



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