Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 260145
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT...

...BECOMING WINDY AND COOLER ON MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
BUILDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD ACRS SE GA AND
SLIGHTLY MORE AS YOU MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISE
TOWARDS MORNING. COLD FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY WITH RAINFALL QUICKLY ENDING AND TEMPS POSSIBLY BRIEFING
DIPPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS RIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN SLOWLY PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S SE GA AND
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACRS NE FL. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH MIDNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD THE
FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OUT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT THEN BECOME WEST AT 20-30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY BECOMING NORTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LET MID SHIFT MAKE FINAL CALL
ON GALE WARNING IF NEEDED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SATILLA RIVER CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD
STATUS AT ATKINSON IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON
THE FLOOD WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  56  35  57 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  46  56  38  55 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  43  59  36  60 /  40  20   0   0
SGJ  48  60  39  60 /  40  30   0   0
GNV  44  61  37  62 /  30  20   0   0
OCF  45  62  38  63 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SANDRIK/SHULER



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