Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250122
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICT A 75 TO
100 KNOT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MIGRATING FROM ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
EASTWARD TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BEFORE DECELERATING AND SPLITTING OFF OF
THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE NORTHERN ARM MOVING NORTHWARDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH WEAKENING...WITH THE AXIS OF A REGIONAL SCALE MID AND
UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS
AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A STRONG NEAR 1030 MB RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE OUTER BANKS
EASTWARD TO 35 NORTH 60 WEST. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A MODERATELY
MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FROM
OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB...AND COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER)
WAS AT 1.46 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...KEY WEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF
ARE RECORDING MAINLY EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS...AS WELL AS AT SMITH
SHOAL LIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY.

.FORECAST...THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL RIDGING...NEAR 590 DM AT
500 MB WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR 1030 MB RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE FRESH EAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
MOISTURE REMAINING CONSTANT AROUND 1.50 INCHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ENABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FORECAST
FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS.
THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE MONDAY.
THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 24TH. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES
IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ052>055-072>075 & GMZ031>035-042>044

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER

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