Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 090352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1052 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...A 1044 mb polar dome of high pressure is centered just
east of the Canadian Rockies. Most of this mass has spilled south
through the Plains and now bulges southeast across the Gulf of
Mexico. Northerly winds have increased to near 20 knots at Pulaski
Shoal, and up to 15 to 20 knots at Sand Key and Smith Shoal.
Dewpoints have fallen to near 70 at Key West International Airport, a
noticeable change compared to the mid 70s this afternoon. As the
high builds southeast overnight, the trend of increasing winds and
lower dewpoints will spread southeast through the Florida Keys.
Scattered showers have developed within the Straits of Florida east
of the Upper Keys and South Florida. Movement is to the southwest and
the bulk of the activity appears to be within a zone of convergence
induced by the building high and the residual tropical fuel. The
forecast is on track and calls for 30% chance of showers, which
should handle the Upper Keys which appear to be in the crosshairs. By
the morning, dewpoints will be falling through the 60s and breezes
will have the palm fronds swaying, finally some relief. No changes


.MARINE...Small Craft Advisories in effect for all Coastal Waters of
the Florida Keys (except Florida Bay) due to increasing north to
northeast winds near 20 knots. From synopsis, a cold front will
reach the Florida keys overnight. High pressure will flourish across
the southeastern United States Friday through Sunday resulting in
strong northeast to east breezes. Winds and seas will begin to
diminish Sunday night and Monday.


.AVIATION...Expect occasional MVFR ceilings to affect EYW & MTH
overnight due to a frontal boundary drifting southward toward the
island chain, producing a layer of stratus. An occasional shower is
possible. Prevailing VFR will return after 09/18z. Gentle northerly
winds will increase to moderate breezes Friday, gradually shifting to
the northeast with gusts near 20 kts.


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for GMZ032>035-




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