Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 281646
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1246 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR CAPTURED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING. AS OF 1030 AM...THESE
WERE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...MOVING GENERALLY NORTH. THE 12Z RAOBS KKEY SOUNDING SHOWED A
WIND PROFILE OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH 150 MB WITH PWAT
VALUES OF OVER 2 INCHES. WINDS ARE BACKING FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY THROUGH 500 MB AND FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. FROM THIS POINT...THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST.

.FORECAST...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL GO BACK TO
NORMAL WEATHER OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE MAGNITUDE OF CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. OUR LOCAL FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED...EXCEPT FOR WINDS...AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
HEALTH OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTERS AND HURRICANE RECCONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
HAD A HARD TIME DETERMINING ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOST OF ERIKA`S CONVECTION ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE FUTURE OF ERIKA IS DEPENDING ON
SEVERAL SCENARIOS. IT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SOUTH OF TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT ITS TROPICAL STRUCTURE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WHICH KEEPS ERIKA
AS A TROPICAL WAVE TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SEE
HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH LAND AND REACHES THE ATLANTIC. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OUR FORECASTS AND LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND A HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WEST...BRINGING LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THE WIND AND WAVES FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. AS MENTIONED...THE CONFIDENCE ON RETAINING ITS TROPICAL
STATUS IS VERY LOW AT THIS MOMENT. THEREFORE...MARINERS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND FORECAST
FROM THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY GROW INTO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY 17-21Z.
HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRESENCE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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