Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 231514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1014 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Early visible satellite photographs show changeable skies with
strong west winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts near 35 mph along the
island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting a broken band
of low top showers on the outer waters of Mainland Monroe into the
waters in and around Dry Tortugas, migrating east southeast near
30 knots. Surface wise, an intensifying area of low pressure
(990 mb)is located over western North Carolina with an associated
trough draped across south Florida and into the extreme southeast
Gulf of Mexico waters. On our marine district, winds are mostly
west ranging between 25 and 30 knots with occasional gusts of 35
to 40 knots. Otherwise, our morning sounding reveals limited
moisture (pwat .90 inches) below 850 mb along with a 2 degree C
inversion based at 7300 feet. Strong west winds reach well into
the troposphere.

Despite an abundance of dry air above 850 mb, a subtle low level
undulation within enough moisture will rotate southeastward and
cross the entire island chain by noon. In wake of this undulation,
changeable skies, slightly cooler and drier air within a west to
northwest trajectory will prevail. In addition, 20 to 30 percent
pops seem on target. Temperatures will hold generally in the
middle 70s with west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with
occasional gusts of 35 to 40 mph.


West to northwest winds of 25 to 30 knots with occasional gusts of
35 to 40 knots will provide for hazardous marine conditions into
this evening.


Light showers may impact EYW & MTH after 15Z, bringing very brief
windows of MVFR visibilities. Outside of these minor showers, VFR
will prevail. Fresh to strong breezes out of the west will continue,
with gusts near 30 to 35 knots during the day, dropping to 20 to 25
knots after 00Z.


In 1983, the daily record rainfall of 5.69 inches was recorded in
Key West. Precipitation records have been kept since 1871.


GM...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for GMZ031>035-



Data Collection......Vickery

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