Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
109 FXUS62 KKEY 101850 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 250 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 GOES Visible satellite is depicting mostly clear skies across the island chain this afternoon. A cold front is sliding southward across the Florida Panhandle, which is in turn nudging the area of high pressure that has had us in its grasp for the past week further offshore. The gradient has weakened since this morning, and winds have dropped a few knots. Temperatures have jumped into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in some locations. Dew points are in the mid 70s and when combined with lighter winds, has made for a very warm, humid afternoon for early May across the Florida Keys. The aforementioned cold front will slide down the Florida Peninsula then will stall over South Florida. Unfortunately, we will feel minimal, if any, changes to our airmass. Winds will briefly shift to the north, allowing for a few degrees drop in dew points on Sunday, but even this will likely not be noticeable since dew points will still be in the lower 70s. Drier conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend. Atmospheric moisture will start to creep up through next week, but a low-level inversion will remain in place. Have kept rain chances out of the forecast through the start of the work week. Rain chances will gradually return back to the forecast as pockets of moisture push through the Keys beginning on Monday. MOS guidance highlights the chance for periods of higher rain chances book-ended by lower rain chances. Have decided to do a broad- brushed approach, as the exact timing of the slugs of moisture is difficult to determine at this time. Have kept in 20% rain chances with a slight chance for thunder Tuesday through Friday. Another front will move across the Southeast on Tuesday, then stall across northern Florida on Wednesday before lifting back north. A deep layer ridge centered across the northern Caribbean will block it from advancing any further. This same ridge will help maintain very warm temperatures across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are forecast to approach 90 degrees in most island communities next week, with dew points in the upper 70s. This will lead to the humidity becoming oppressive at times, especially when winds are lighter. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle south to southwest breezes will shift to the west to northwest as high pressure over the western Atlantic moves further offshore. Winds will continue to veer around the compass during the weekend as a weak frontal boundary moves down the Florida peninsula. The front will dissipate near the Keys waters on Sunday, then gentle to moderate southeast breezes will resume early next week as another high pressure area moves over the western Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH island terminals through the TAF period, with nil rain and thunder chances. Surface winds out of the south to southwest at 7 to 10 knots will become light and variable late this evening, before returning to the southwest late overnight through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1963, the daily record low temperature of 61F was recorded in Marathon. This is the coldest temperature ever recorded in May in the Marathon area. Temperature records date back to 1951 for May. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 88 80 87 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 80 89 80 87 / 10 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest