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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281900
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
300 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Cumulus cloud lines were present over the upper, middle and lower
Keys simultaneously early this afternoon with a few northeast-to-
southwest-oriented cloud lines offshore the upper Keys. A sprinkle
periodically was noted with the offshore lines. Winds were south
to southwest across Florida Bay and variable elsewhere, with just
a hint of the northerly flow around the eastern Gulf high pressure
just starting to take shape outside the Northwest Channel.

The lower troposphere will be marked by gradually increasing
strength to high pressure, with strengthening east to southeast
breezes as opposed to diurnal mesoscale wind regimes. Gradual
increasing moisture depth will increase pops gradually from slight
chance on Monday to low chance by Thursday. While cooling takes
place to -9C at 500 mb by Wednesday, moisture remains meager in
the 700-500 mb layer.

Later this week and next weekend, troughing returns to the
eastern United States with a broadening ridge in the western
Atlantic. Deep southerly flow...albeit generally less than 15
knots...will help to focus moisture in the central and eastern
Gulf. This in combination with mid level warming back to near -6C
at 500 mb and mid-level dry air poised just to the southwest by
Sunday precludes raising rain chances much higher at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
No current watches, warnings, or advisories. This evening another
south to southwest seabreeze should diminish over Florida Bay,
with light winds over the Gulf waters turning light northerly.
High pressure across the Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic
will strengthen slightly Monday, allowing for steadier east to
southeast winds to develop. This pattern becomes established
Tuesday through Thursday with winds peaking in the small craft
caution range of 15 to 20 knots over the open Straits each night,
and lulling to around 15 knots or less each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will be light and variable this evening and tonight at the
KEYW and KMTH terminals. Expect predominantly VFR conditions at both
locations.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in 2013, 2.40 inches of rain was measured in Key West.
This set the daily rainfall record for May 28th in the city.
Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  89  81  89 / -  10 10 20
Marathon  81  92  82  92 / -  10 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JR
Aviation/Nowcasts....04
Data Collection......Chesser

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