Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280244
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A ROBUST COLD FRONT IS MARCHING THROUGH THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED SWATH OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY SWEPT SOUTHEASTWARD OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A BLAST OF 40 TO
50 MPH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS. PULASKI SHOAL REPORTED A 49
KNOT GUST...AND SMITH SHOAL...46 KNOTS. ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARE NOW LOCATED FROM THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE FLORIDA STRAITS
OFF OF THE UPPER KEYS...TO THE DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF THE
MARQUESAS KEYS. ONLY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED A COUPLE DEGREES...DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN
THE UPPER 60S...DOWN FROM THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS
WILL HOLD OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AND BECOME WINDY. THE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE KEYS HAS ENDED...AND ONLY A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. WILL
SHAVE POPS DOWN INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS THE SWATH OF RAIN
ACROSS OUR GULF SIDE WATERS...AND WESTERN MOST FLORIDA STRAITS IS
DIMINISHING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
WITH DEW POINTS SETTLING DOWN TO NEAR 60.

&&

.MARINE...
BROKEN LINES OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE UPPER KEYS...TO THE
DISTANT STRAITS SOUTH OF REBECCA SHOAL. THIS ACTIVITY IS RACING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS. THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...LIKELY UNTIL IT CLEARS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD OF ALL ATLANTIC ZONES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN RUSH
THROUGH ALL KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 22 AND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 05 AND 07Z.
THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CROSS WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075..

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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