Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 230335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1035 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

A deep cyclonic circulation persists over the Florida Peninsula.
The mid-upper level portion is highly anomalous, especially this
far south, in fact, the 00Z KKEY 500 mb height (567 dm) is the
lowest height for the date based on SPC`s Sounding Climatology
Page. The surface low (1004 mb) is centered over Central Florida.
Surface dewpoints maximized near 70 today ahead of the MCS.
Behind the MCS, dewpoints fell to near 60, and have oscillated
around 60 ever since. A 24 hour rainfall analysis indicates 1 to
3 inches from Key West to Duck Key. The highest gauge and radar
totals were in a strip from Sugarloaf to northern Big Pine Key,
where 3.5 to almost 4 inches of rain fell. Since then, widely
scattered showers have maintained their presence within the deep
cyclonic flow. Mid-level shear quickly rips the head off of most
cores, leaving sheaths of wetting rains. A few of these have
glanced the islands, but only dropping a few hundreths of an inch
of rainfall.

The forecast calls for temperatures to fall into the mid 60s with
mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances will be held at 50% given the
upstream mosaic radar imagery. The forecast is on track and needs
no adjustments.


No current watches, warnings, or advisories. Moderate west to
northwest breezes will persist as a slow moving area of low
pressure drifts east across the Florida Peninsula.


VFR and gusty westerly breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH
terminals overnight. A low pressure system straddling central
Florida will retain slight rain chances at either terminal. These
isolated showers and sheaths of rain will only result in temporary
MVFR VIS...sub VFR CIGS are not expected.




Data Collection......Devanas

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