Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 231709

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1209 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

...18Z AVIATION...

VFR ceilings and visibility will prevail through the TAF period.
There is the possibility of some patchy fog development as
moisture increase tonight and have introduced TEMPOs for KMCB and
KHDC. However, confidence is low in fog development given high
clouds that are streaming into western parts of Louisiana at this
time that may mitigate fog development.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 748 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/


A very strong, shallow inversion is in place with the temperature
near the surface at 46F increasing to 65F at about 650 feet.
Temperatures will rise quickly this morning as boundary layer
processes mix out this inversion. Otherwise, the atmosphere
remains quite stable and extremely dry. The precipitable water
value was calculated at 0.34 inches, which is nearly a record for
this date and time and near the 31 day minimum moving average
value. While the sounding is overall dry, there is evidence of
moistening in the upper levels between 35000 and 40000 feet
(250-200mb). This lines up well with where IR and WV satellite
imagery shows moisture/high clouds arriving from Texas. Winds are
light and variable in the boundary layer and become from the
northwest around 6500 feet through the remainder of the
troposphere. A peak wind speed of 42 knots was sampled at 37050
feet above the ground.

12z balloon info: A routine flight lasting 102 minutes reaching a
height of 20 miles above the ground bursting just south of
Pearlington, MS 19 miles downrange from the office.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/

A quiet morning across the forecast area as expected temperatures
this morning were able to get a little bit cooler thanks to
lighter winds that allowed for more radiational cooling to occur.
This morning temperatures are in the low to mid 40s this morning
across the northshore and upper 40s to lower 50s across most of
the southshore outside of the New Orleans metro area. Not much
change in the forecast as it remains basically a temperature
forecast through the period with little or no impactful weather
expected. Today you will notice the temperatures beginning to
creep back up near that 80 degree mark. Expect daytime temps
through early next week to continue to rise back into the lower
80s. Lows tonight should not be as cold as again temperatures are
moderating and they also will be slightly warmer getting back
into the 50s and 60s instead of the 40s like we have seen the last
few nights. High pressure will then move off to the east over the
first half of the week allowing for some moisture return out
ahead of what now looks like a very weak front expected to move
across the lower Mississippi Valley. As moisture is drawn
northward, clouds will increase on Wednesday with scattered
showers possible late Wednesday into early Thursday. This front
may or may not even bring any rain to the area, and more than
likely will not really affect temperatures that much. 13/MH

VFR conditions will persist over all terminals through the
forecast. /CAB/

Winds finally relaxed yesterday and as high pressure builds in
look for winds to continue to back down a little more. As high
pressure continues to slide east light easterly winds will develop
over the region and should persist through Tue. By Wed the
pressure gradient may begin to tighten up some as a sfc low moves
into the Mid MS Valley with moderate winds out of the ESE. /CAB/

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


MCB  49  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  52  82  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  60  80  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  81  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  48  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0



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