Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 061939
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
239 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM OHIO TO FLORIDA.
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THE
CLOSEST PRECIPITATION OVER LAND APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EVEN THE CUMULUS FORMATION SEEMS TO BE RATHER SHALLOW.
DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...REMAINING IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS HAS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 98 TO 103
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE LAKE AND SEA
BREEZES INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE HIGH. EXPECT
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

EXPECT RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NOT
MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARISE BEYOND SUNDAY. THE GFS
DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS IT FURTHER EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. ECMWF WOULD BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. IN EITHER
CASE...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MANY AREAS COULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AGAIN...LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

PRETTY QUIET ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE VCTS IN TAFS BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT IS TOO AGGRESSIVE AS
STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED SO FAR. EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT SOME TAF LOCATIONS AND HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THAT IN THE TAFS. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR TOMORROW AS VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...

TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE AS A BERMUDA RIDGE TO MAINTAINS LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS EVENING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER END ~10KT 2FT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  92  74  92 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  75  92  75  92 /   0  20  10  20
ASD  77  92  77  92 /   0  10   0  20
MSY  78  92  78  91 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  78  90  78  90 /   0  10   0  20
PQL  76  90  75  91 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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