Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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283
FXUS64 KLIX 281328
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
828 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Sounding indicates a shallow low level inversion with southerly
flow from the surface to 25kft. Precipitable water calculated to
be 1.37in with a freezing level measured at 14,388ft.  Sounding
more supportive for afternoon showers with some daytime heating.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Mid level ridging will weaken slightly today through mid week
allowing for some convection to get started each day. This is
mostly noted by the inversion level lifting and moistening to
about 10k ft. Most of this activity should be able to reach about
20k ft today which will be in the form of showers but there could be
a few cells that punch through to 35k ft or higher causing the
formation of a few ts. As always...these will be watched
carefully.

Chances for rainfall will remain relatively stable through
Wednesday.

LONG TERM...
After Wednesday...rainfall chances should rise to see a fairly
good area wide distribution as a cold front moves eastward out of
Tx. The long wave trough providing support will move through
slowly starting Thursday and should clear the area Saturday
evening.

AVIATION...

Radar continues to show some showers around the area with most of
the activity west of all of our terminals. Lower ceilings are
possible in and around these showers, should they move into the
vicinity of one of the terminals. At this time, the expectation is
that the chances are not high for that to occur and therefore no
mention of rain are in the TAFs. Overall, mainly VFR conditions will
be the norm with MVFR conditions possible at times.

MARINE...

High pressure will continue to dominate the flow over the coastal
waters through the rest of the week with winds generally out of the
southeast at 10 to 15 knots through the weekend. Seas will be on the
order of two to three feet. With the center of the high developing
over the coastal waters Monday and Tuesday winds will decrease
and become light and variable with seas of 1 to 2 feet.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  67  90  70 /  40  20  20  10
BTR  88  70  90  71 /  40  20  20  10
ASD  87  69  89  70 /  30  10  20  10
MSY  87  71  89  72 /  30  10  20  10
GPT  86  70  88  72 /  30  10  10  10
PQL  86  68  88  69 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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