Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 230923
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
223 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD THICK CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ANY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NW NEVADA THIS MORNING, WITH
THICK MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY, BUT ANY LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY, AND MAINLY NW OF WINNEMUCCA.
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AT 15-25 MPH, AND DESPITE THE CLOUDS, THESE WINDS WILL HELP CONTINUE
THE WARMING TREND WITH MOST VALLEYS SURPASSING 70 DEGREES.

FRIDAY...PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE SW U.S., WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING SE OF NEVADA, AND A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS IS A WARM PATTERN FOR NEVADA,
WITH WARM SW WINDS FLOWING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S TO BE COMMON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH THE WARMEST LOCALES CRACKING 80 DEGREES. WENT FOR A
HIGH OF 77 AT THE ELKO AIRPORT, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE RECORD HIGH
FOR OCTOBER 24TH (80 SET IN 1959) WILL BE THREATENED. FULL
SUNSHINE WILL ADD TO THE WARMTH, WITH THE PACIFIC JET AND ALL
CLOUDS FORCED WELL NORTH OF NEVADA.

SATURDAY...WINDY AND WARM. STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES ON
THE WEST COAST AROUND 5 PM, WITH SW FLOW INCREASING OVER NEVADA.
SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
MOST ZONES, WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH MOST LIKELY IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH MAX TEMPS WILL INTO THE 70S.
ENJOY THIS, A CHILLY REALITY CHECK IS COMING ON SUNDAY.  BT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. EURO IS MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE RESULT THAT
THE EURO HAS COLDER AIR IN IT THAN THE GFS. FOR LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...SUFFICIENT RH AND LOW ENOUGH THICKNESS WILL MEAN SHOW
SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS. BETWEEN ABOUT
6000 AND 7000 FEET LOOK FOR A DUSTING TO VERY MINOR ACCUMS. BELOW
6000 LIKELY JUST SHOWERS TO A DUSTING. HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING
THE 40S IN NORTHERN NEVADA AND 50S FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 50 TO
INTERSTATE 80. HUMBOLDT COUNTY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN THE NORTH
PART. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LARGELY IN THE 50S AND 60S. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS A SLOW WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE...BUT SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS MEANS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN POPS SO
JUST LOW POPS WARRANTED IN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE LONG TERM. BB


&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL KWMC...KEKO...KELY...KTPH THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. MIDDLE LAYERS CIGS WILL FORM OVER KWMC AND KEKO STARTING
LATE MORNING IN KWMC AND MID AFTERNOON KEKO. KWMC WILL SEE SOME
VCSH TOWARD SUNSET THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT ALL
SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BB


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98







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