Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 250946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
246 AM PDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers are possible across far northern Nevada
this afternoon as another disturbance brushes the region. Dry and
mild Wednesday and Thursday then more showers will move into the
region Thursday night and Friday with a chance for significant


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.
Showers have ended over northeast Nevada early this morning as the
short wave has moved downstream. Southwest flow aloft prevails
today with another Pacific wave brushing northern Nevada. The
higher resolution models do not show any precipitation in the lee
of the Sierra and downstream across northern Nevada. There is
sufficient moisture and low level weak instability for an
isolated shower north of I80, the HRRR model may be too dry.
However if any showers do develop, it will be brief and most
likely miss any populated areas.

Rising heights continue tonight and Wednesday. Once the Pacific
wave brushes northern Nevada this afternoon, clearing skies are
expected late in the day. Mostly sunny conditions are expected on
Wednesday with warmer days. Valleys reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s will be common.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Tuesday.
With the upper level pattern continuing to be progressive,
several storms are poised to move through the Great Basin and
yield some precipitation. The strength and moisture content is
still hard to determine at this time do to variance from model to
model. There is better agreement however between the models on the
system before Monday so confidence in the long term forecast is
improving. There is still large discrepancy on the storm system
beyond Monday as different model solutions vary largely in timing
and intensity. Another source of uncertainty will be caused by the
the infusion of energy from dying tropical systems later in the
week which the models are not currently handling well.

Wednesday night through Thursday morning. High pressure centered
over Mexico and the Baja Region will provide dry weather.
Temperatures will be relatively mild as 582DM H5 heights expand
northward into Idaho and Wyoming. Lows will generally be in the

Thursday afternoon. A weak shortwave will move through the
Pacific Northwest and brush Nevada. The passage of this wave will
help pull up some Pacific moisture into Humboldt County primarily,
but could affect parts of Lander and Nye Counties as well. High
temperatures will be in the 60s.

Thursday night to Friday night. A robust shortwave will move
through California and Nevada with some remnant tropical moisture
getting infused into the flow. With a good fetch of moisture,
this system could produce a half-inch of rain for the valleys of
northern Nevada as it crosses and re- develops lee-side of the
Sierras. Low temperatures will be in the 40s. High temperatures
will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.

Saturday morning to afternoon. A fairly dry period with ample
cloud cover in between storm systems. This period will see the
previous moisture move eastward with a deepening system off the
west coast. The moisture will gradually begin to intrude across
the state. High temperature will be in the 50`s

Saturday night through Sunday. A strong short wave trough is
progged to pass over the state bringing ample moisture for another
round of showers. There is a little model discrepancy on the
exact intensity of this trough which may impact the coverage of
the moisture and showers. High temperatures will range from the
mid 50s to the lower 60s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s.

Monday through Tuesday. A fair amount of model discrepancy is
present after the passage of the strong short wave trough on
Sunday. Both the EC and GFS agree that another short wave trough
will form and move inland but they cannot agree on timing and
intensity. The EC favors a far slower and deeper system while the
GFS favors a weak rapid moving system. This produces great
uncertainty with the moisture profile of the system and the
impacts it will have on the state. High temperatures will be in
the 50s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions with generally light winds for all
terminals for the next 24 hours. There will be the chance for some
fog at KEKO this morning but the confidence is not high due to
intruding drier air which may impede formation.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers will be confined to far northern
NV. Dry all areas Wednesday and Thursday. Mild temperatures will
continue with the warmer locales reaching the lower 70s on
Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm system will bring showers
Thursday night and Friday.




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