Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 020907
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
207 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A REMNANT
LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING BUT FOR ALL
INTENTS AND PURPOSE A RIDGE HAS SECURED A POSITION OVER THE WEST
AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING EAST AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM ASIDE FROM SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AND
THE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ABOUT 150 MILES TO RECENTER OVER UTAH.
THERE WILL BE SOME UNSTABLE AIR LEFTOVER IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA BREAKS APART OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR
SO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BE
A DRY PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ANOTHER 200 MILES TO
RECENTER EAST OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGE
HOLDS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO STALL THE ONSET OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT LOW CENTERED NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OVER FAR WESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DIP
INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE MOST PART.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COASTAL REGION NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS ELKO BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND PRE-FRONTAL WARMING WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THE
LONG TERM LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING GREATER
THAN 1 INCH OF EQUIVALENT PRECIP.

SPECIFICALLY... LARGE CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN CA
COASTLINE BY WED EVENING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST PASSING
THE NV/CA STATE LINE.  WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET ABLE TO MAKE IT
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...EXPECT THIS FRONTAL BAND
OF PRECIP TO STAY INTACT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  DUE
TO THIS WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
HUMBOLDT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THEREAFTER...ALL MODELS AGREE
WITH WEAKENING THE FRONTAL BAND AS THE 500MB LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST OF CA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS
STILL PLACES MOST OF THE CWA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...SO
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PEAK COVERAGE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  BY
FRIDAY...THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN CA...PLACING
THE CWA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY ROTATES INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN MAINLY NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY LEANED IN THIS
DIRECTION...SO SIMPLY ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MIRROR MODEL CONSENSUS.  BY
SATURDAY...THE 558DM 500MB CLOSED LOW IS OVER SW UT OR WESTERN
AZ...PLACING THE CWA IN THE NE QUADRANT.  THIS LEADS TO MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LESS OF THEM THAN ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOME.
THE CHANGES DIMINISH FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS THE 500MB LOW IS NOW
IN EASTERN UTAH OR SOUTHERN WY...MEANING EASTERN NV SHOULD SEE
THE BEST SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA...LIMITING
THE SHOWER THREAT OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY...HOWEVER NOT ENDING
IT COMPLETELY.  MODEL AGREEMENT DOES DROP OFF BY MONDAY...WITH THE
EC PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW...WHILE THE
GFS INDICATES A COL AREA OVERHEAD...AND THUS PRODUCING
AFTERNOON SHOWERS.  THEREFORE...LIKE STATE PREVIOUSLY...KEPT
POPS IN PLACE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BOTTOM
LINE...THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED OR
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON....BUT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE
IN WHERE THEY DEVELOP.  THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EPISODE...SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS.  FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD IS WHEN SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR LOWEST (@7500 TO 8000 FT).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
NEAR KTPH AND KELY WHERE AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT EXIST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL.
LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE
BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE RAPIDLY TO
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR THESE AND OTHER SMALL
STREAMS MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT COULD
MAKE THEM IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM PALISADE TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/85/85


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