Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 250926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
226 AM PDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A bit cooler over the region with isolated showers
and a few thunderstorms from mainly eastern to northeastern Nevada
through Friday. Drier and a little warmer on the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. Frontal system and
upper trough trudging across the northern part of the state will
finally exit Friday, and the first northerly flow of the coming
ridge will begin to set up late Friday. Several strong
thunderstorms persisted into the night Wednesday and then
subsided. This is possible again today and this evening, albeit in
a more limited area with best support in the east. Cold advection
will keep max temps cooler by about ten degrees and lows the 30s in valleys to 40s in warmer valleys.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. Upper ridge
redevelops along the West Coast early this weekend with ridge
axis shifting eastward over the interior West, including the Great
Basin through early next week. This will provide several days of
sunny and dry weather with above normal temperatures across
Nevada. Daytime highs will generally be in the 70s on Saturday,
upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday, and in the 80s Tuesday
through Thursday. A few locations could hit 90 degrees by midweek
particularly in the vicinity of Winnemucca, Gabbs, and Denio.
Lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Models are in good agreement now as ECMWF has come around to GFS
solution of developing a weak cut- off low off the southern
California coast while moving it east into the northern Baja
region on Tuesday into Wednesday. Ridging breakdowns over Nevada
and shunts east on Thursday in response to stronger Pacific
low approaching Oregon and Washington. Southern extent of this
system will provide an influx of some moisture and shortwave
energy that could produce the chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms mainly across portions of Humboldt and northwest
Elko counties later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.


.AVIATION...Predawn showers along and behind cold frontal boundary will
impact the vicinities of KWMC and KEKO until around 12Z. Front
will continue to slowly sag south across central Nevada before
stalling and weakening. Cannot rule out the possibility of an
isolated shower or thunderstorm redeveloping between 18Z and 21Z
in the vicinity of KELY so will include in 12Z TAF. Otherwise, not
as windy today as yesterday, though gusts around 25 kts are
likely this afternoon and early evening at KELY and KTPH. Strong
upper level disturbance drops south out of eastern Oregon tonight.
Best chance of a few more showers and storms will be across
northern and eastern Elko County, just north and east of KEKO.


.HYDROLOGY...The lower Humboldt River from Comus downstream
through Winnemucca to the Humboldt/Pershing County border will
experience minor to moderate flooding through the weekend. A Flood
Warning is in effect.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain has dropped just below flood
stage, but water levels are expected to fluctuate around minor
flood stage over the weekend so a flood warning remains in

The Jarbidge River is expected to experience fluctuating water levels
around minor flood stage over the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is still above the spillway. There is no
threat for flooding at this time downstream along the Owyhee

Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler today and Friday
which will serve to slow snowmelt, but much warmer temperatures
will return next week with daytime highs rising back up into the
80s. As a result, many small rivers and creeks that flow out of
mountainous areas will see rising and/or fluctuating water levels
in the days ahead.




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