Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 050244
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
744 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING...THEREFORE
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE CLOUDS SUPPRESSED
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS RESULTED IN LESS
INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 327 PM /

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY
AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...MOIST AND UNSETTLED. A VORT
LOBE IS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WHICH IS PROVIDING THE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION OVER PARTS OF THE LKN CWA. THE PWS ARE RUNNING 3
TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...PINGING INTO A RETURN INTERVAL OF 30 YEARS. THE
OBSERVED DEWPOINT ARE WELL OVER 50F IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS...WITH
THE CORFIDI VECTORS RUNNING ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. TOMORROW
THE EMPHASIS FOR TSRA WILL BE OVER NE NV...FOLLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD UNTIL SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EXPECT WITH TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 577DM 500MB LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
AND A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER NV. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWNS COMPLETELY BY WED AS THE 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500MB LOW (ABOUT 573-575DM)
FINALLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA LATE THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NV ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW
FILLS AS ITS EXITS THE STATE ON SUNDAY..GIVING WAY TO LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. THE LOW PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE
IS A SLIGHT DELAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ECWMWF
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN MOVING THIS UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH THROUGH. IN FACT..THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A TROUGH OFF
THE COAST ON SATURDAY...THUS THE RIDGE ONLY BENDS A LITTLE BEFORE
QUICKLY REBOUNDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCE...THEY AGREE WITH FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS AND A DRYING
TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE HIGHEST OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY...BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...AFTER WED...MOST OF CENTRAL NV DRIES
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE CWA. AS FOR
TEMPS...FALLING HEIGHTS MEANS FALLING TEMPS...AND THEY SHOULD BE
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. EXPECT THE
SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD INHIBIT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

AVIATION...SHOWERS..THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
ALL IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WORST CIGS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL DROP
BUT WORST CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS STATED COULD OCCUR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TPH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
22-01Z TIME FRAME WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF AFTER 06Z...HOWEVER
SHOWERS OR PERIODS LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THEREAFTER. DUE TO CLOUD COVER...KEPT ONLY VCTS AT TPH
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCE BELOW 6SM
AT TIMES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TAFS BUT
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY.

FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DISTURBANCE TAPS INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
DRIVING THE CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECT ENHANCED LALS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A JUICY AIR MASS ON TAP...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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