Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 202123
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
223 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ON TAP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS A
FLAT RIDGE SITS ABOVE THE FORECAST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE PREVALENT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...WITH
WINDY...COOLER...AND WETTER CONDITIONS SET FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON
WAS HAD BY ALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE A QUIET AND TRANQUIL NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

FOR MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST...SENDING A SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE...WARMER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE...BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. MOST AREAS WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SPEEDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE TOP DOWN.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INLAND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME WIND...EXPECT WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SOME RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE 8500 FEET.

ON TUESDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY. GFS WIND ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO BE A GOOD 3-4SD ABOVE NORMAL OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH A
SWATH OF 4-5SD ABOVE NORMAL IN WHITE PINE COUNTY. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE MID 30 KNOT RANGE. 700
MB WINDS WILL BE 45-50 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY
FOR TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST ELKO COUNTY WILL BE CLOSE TO MEETING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA AND WILL ADVISE NIGHT SHIFT ON WIND POTENTIAL THERE.
OTHER LOCALES IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL NOT GET A REPRIEVE FROM
THE WIND AND MOST ZONES WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS SQUARELY IN ADVISORY
TERRITORY. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH A
TROPOPAUSE FOLD NOTED AT 400-500 MB MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE JARBIDGE AREA...COULD SEE SOME
ROBUST QPF AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 6000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AS A RESULT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS. THERE MIGHT BE A SHOT FOR AN IMPACT BASED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...WITH ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE THERE. BY WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
THINGS COOL. COULD SEE SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE WITH PATTERN WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MORE SUN TO THE
SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH LI`S NEAR
ZERO BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON FRIDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET. SATURDAY THE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SILVER STATE...HOWEVER SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. SHOWERS CHANCES STILL REMAIN HIGH WITH SNOW LEVELS
DECREASING TO 6000 TO 6500 FEET LATER ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS NEAR
6000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS
AND A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE NEAR KELY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

86/90/90




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