Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 281106
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
306 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH AND IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF SHOWERS ARE
AROUND AND SOME OF THOSE ARE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT THE RADAR
CANNOT PICK UP ON, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES BECAUSE IT`S
OVER SHOOTING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A LOOK AT THE CAMERAS AT
SISKIYOU SUMMIT SUGGEST ROADS THERE ARE SLICK WITH AN INCH OR LESS
OF SNOW. IT`S ALSO SNOWING ALONG DEAD INDIAN MEMORIAL SUMMIT WITH
ROADS SNOW COVERED THERE. SNOW HAS STOPPED FOR THE MOMENT AT
DIAMOND LAKE AND LAKE OF THE WOODS. COULD NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING, BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION.

TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST OREGON...SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
WESTERN IDAHO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD AND HAVE NOT DROPPED MUCH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES HAVE
BEEN SITTING AROUND FREEZING. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AND WITH DAYTIME WARMING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW UPSLOPE
FLOW EAST OF THE CASCADES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. ALSO THE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE
WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, THEN DECREASE AND MOVING SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES FOR THESE LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, A DRY NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL SET UP AND WE`LL SEE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SISKIYOUS DUE TO
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH WARMING
ROADS IT SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND RIDGE
WILL NUDGE INTO WESTERN OREGON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY REMAINS
DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWEST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT
SHOWING JUST ENOUGH OVER WATER TRAJECTORY FOR PRECIPITATION TO
SPREAD INTO WESTERN OREGON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE A QUICK MOVER,
SO NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF FROM THIS AND MOST OF IT WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND COULD VERY WELL LAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SIMILAR RESULTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING OVER THE PAC NW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND REMAINING
THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
VFR AT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH CLEARING BY SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOME LOWER STRATUS TO
DEVELOP WITH MVFR OR IFR CIGS, MAINLY NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN.
SKIES SHOULD ALL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
     PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$


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