Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 242305
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
405 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2016

Updated Fire and Aviation sections

.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry conditions will continue into the
weekend. As the thermal trough shifts inland, temperatures are
expected to warm to a peak on Thursday and Friday of roughly 10 to
15 degrees above seasonal normals before gradually cooling through
the weekend. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will keep the area dry, with
no mentionable chances of precipitation anywhere within the
forecast area. In other words, quiet but warm weather is expected
through the weekend. Fire weather conditions will remain the
primary concern under this pattern.

A significant change may appear early next week. Models are showing
an upper level trough sliding south into the region from Canada
and/or Alaska, but there has been little consistency run-to-run
regarding the strength or potential path of the associated front.
What does remain consistent are cooling temperatures, breezy winds,
increasing clouds. As for precipitation, it appears only a slight
chance of rain is possible west of the Cascades. Much of the
uncertain track and strength regarding this system stems from a very
strong low over the Aleutians, and a somewhat blocky pattern
upstream, either or both of which are resulting in varying model
solutions.

The overall trend has been towards a cooler forecast, closer to or
even slightly below average for late August. Although confidence
remains low with so many variables and uncertainties upstream, have
trended the forecast for early next week to near to slightly below
normal temperatures, and have kept a slight chance of rain, mainly
west of the Cascades. However, the forecast could easily change over
the next several cycles. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z TAF cycle...The thermal trough will strengthen
tonight through Thursday. Have moderate to high confidence that
offshore flow will be strong enough to keep low clouds off of the
coast, especially at KOTH. VFR is expected elsewhere. Some low level
turbulence should be expected from the Cascades westward tonight
through Thursday due to gusty north through east winds. BTL

&&

.MARINE...Updated 245 PM PDT, Wednesday 24 August 2016...North winds
will continue through Thursday evening as a thermal trough remains
along the coast. Moderate winds and steep, wind driven seas are
expected in the expansion fan south of Cape Blanco. While winds
won`t be as strong elsewhere, they will generate a steep mix of wind
waves and fresh swell over much of the area during the afternoons
and evenings with fresh swell remaining steep at night. Low pressure
moves out over the waters Friday through the weekend with winds and
seas lowering. There are really no significant winds or seas on the
horizon from the weekend through at least early next week. -Wright

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 400 PM PDT, Wednesday 24 August 2016...
Very low relative humidities this afternoon and evening will rise
less tonight than last night. Low pressure moving southeastward in
the mid-upper level east of the Cascades will cause an upward surge
in subsiding northeast through east winds across the upper slopes
and ridges tonight, with poor to moderate RH recoveries. Gusty
northerly winds are expected over northwestern portions of the area
thursday afternoon and evening east winds will diminish Thursday
night into Friday, along with very low relative humidities. East
winds will diminish Thursday night into Friday, but dry conditions
will continue. This weekend into early next week a cooling trend
will begin. This is likely to result in gusty southwest winds east
of the Cascades Saturday through Monday. Cooler than normal
conditions with some precipitation is expected in the the 6-14 days
period, especially NW sections of the area. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Thursday
     for ORZ616>620-623.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...
- Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM PDT Friday for
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/BTL/TRW



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