Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 280150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
950 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes tracks to the northeast
tonight as another low develops over northeastern New Jersey this
evening. This lows becomes the main low tonight and tracks along
the New England coast through Friday. Meanwhile high pressure
builds to the southwest Friday and Friday night. High pressure
moves south of the area on Saturday with a cold front approaching
from the north Saturday night. The front sinks through the area on
Sunday as a weak low pressure moves along it. High pressure then
returns Monday and Tuesday followed by a weak cold front for the
middle of the week.


Temperatures continue to rise along the coasts this evening.
At 9pm, readings ranged from the 30s across the interior to 60 at
JFK at. The heaviest bands of rain have exited the region to the
east, but heights continue to fall with the upper level system
still on the doorstep. As a result, the rain will continue for the
next few hours.

A lone lightning strike has been observed along the New Jersey
coast so isolated thunderstorms have been maintained in the warm
sector forecast. Lapse rates should be steepening over the next
few hours.

A 1017 low was developing near Philadelphia at 9pm, so as the low
passes along or south of Long Island, temperatures will begin to
drop as winds shift to the northwest.


Low pressure along the eastern New England coast early Friday
tracks east through the day. A strong and gusty west to northwest
flow develops with moderate cold advection and low level winds
around 35 KTS mix to the surface.

Weak ridging builds late in the day and into Friday night. Winds
will lighten and decouple over the western zones Friday night and
with clear conditions temperatures will fall off. However, weak
warm advection does set up at that time.


Deep anticyclone across the southern United States will help to
build ridging towards the northeast on Saturday. Several shortwaves
will traverse across southeast Canada but the trend in the models
and ensembles has been for these shortwaves to stay well to the
north. Have continued with a dry forecast for Saturday. Some mid and
high level clouds are possible through the day, but sky conditions
should largely be partly cloudy. High temperatures are a bit tricky
on Saturday as there is some uncertainty with how warm it will get.
Increasing westerly flow around the middle and upper level
anticyclone to south will transport unseasonable warm air just above
the surface. However, BUFKIT soundings point to a subsidence
inversion around 925 hPa which will prevent mixing into the warmer
air. Have sided with the warmer MAV guidance, which yields high
temperatures generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s with urban NE
NJ and NYC metro in the middle 60s.

A cold front slowly sags south Saturday night with into Sunday with
increasing cloud cover. Heights fall during this time period with
another shortwave in the northern stream traversing across New
England on Sunday. This will help push the front through the region
Sunday and offshore Sunday night. Moisture is limited with this
system, so will not go higher than chance PoPs. There should be
enough lift from the front and an approaching upper jet for
scattered showers in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures
are quite uncertain on Sunday and will depend the amount of cloud
cover and placement of the front. Have gone with the warmest
temperatures across southern portions of the area with highs in
urban NE NJ and NYC in the upper 60s to possible around 70.

The rest of the long term period will be characterized by ridging
building in the middle and upper levels. High pressure moves
overhead on Monday and then situates itself offshore on Tuesday.
There could be a weak cold front that moves through on Wednesday or
Wednesday night, but the timing of this will be dependent on how
quickly the ridge breaks down. Monday will be the only day with
seasonable temperatures with above normal temperatures then expected
through Thursday.


Low pressure and a warm frontal boundary converge upon the area
this evening, followed by a cold frontal passage after midnight.

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions through 04-06z with gradual
improvement to VFR following the cold frontal passage late
tonight. Rain tapering to showers from w to e through 06z.

Appears warm front will remain stalled to the s/se of KLGA/KEWR
through remainder of evening before cold front moves through.
Winds expected to stay E/NE less than 10 kt at
KSWF/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KLGA through the remainder of the
evening. S/SE winds with gusts 20-25 kt will continue at
KJFK/KISP remainder of the evening...possible veering se at KGON.

Following the cold frontal passage after midnight...conditions
should improve to vfr vsby/mvfr cigs with a gusty W/NW wind. W/NW
winds should gradually ramp up through Friday morning with gusts
25-30 kt on Friday.

VFR with NW flow and gusts 25-30kt on Friday. Winds likely veer
to the right of 310 magnetic in the afternoon.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

KJFK TAF Comments: Conds likely vary btwn mvfr/ifr remainder of this
evening. S/SE gusts to 25 kt likely this evening. Winds likely
waver around 310 magnetic Friday...averaging to the right of 310
magnetic FRI afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Conds likely vary btwn mvfr/ifr remainder of this
evening. Winds expected to remain n/ne. Winds likely waver around
310 magnetic Friday...averaging to the right of 310 magnetic FRI

KEWR TAF Comments: Conds likely vary btwn mvfr/ifr remainder of this
evening. Winds expected to remain n/ne. Winds likely waver around
310 magnetic Friday...averaging to the right of 310 magnetic FRI

KTEB TAF Comments: Conds likely vary btwn mvfr/ifr remainder of this
evening. Winds expected to remain n/ne.

KHPN TAF Comments: Conds likely vary between IFR and VLIFR
remainder of this evening in light to moderate rain. Winds
expected to remain e/ne.

KISP TAF Comments: Conds likely vary btwn mvfr/ifr this evening.
SE gusts to 25 kt likely.

.Saturday...VFR. Gusty southwest flow possible along the coast.
.Sunday...Low chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon.
.Monday and Tuesday...VFR.


Waves have ramped up to 8 ft on the ocean this evening. The
forecast has therefore been adjusted upward by 2 ft for the rest
of the night on the ocean.

Small craft conditions remain on the ocean waters into early this
evening. Then as low pressure deepens along the coast, winds will
increase, and small craft wind gusts will be likely across the
remainder of the forecast waters through at least tonight.

As low pressure moves to the northeast of the waters by Friday
morning, winds shift to the west to northwest and with cold
advection and the strong surface pressure gradient force, winds
increase and become gusty. Wind gusts to gale force will be likely
across the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet through Friday,
with small craft gusts across the remainder of the water through
Friday evening. Once gale gusts diminish on the eastern ocean
waters a small craft will likely be needed into Friday night.

Conditions will briefly fall below SCA levels early Saturday, but
increasing SW flow during the afternoon and evening will bring
winds to SCA levels on all waters. Ocean seas will also build to
between 5 and 6 ft. Winds will weaken on the near shore waters
Saturday night, but may remain around 25 kt on the ocean with seas
around 5 ft. Sub- sca conditions are then forecast on Sunday as a
cold front slowly moves across the waters. Winds could gust close
to SCA levels on the ocean Sunday night as high pressure builds
behind the front. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected Monday into


Rainfall will range from around a half inch across the western
zones with near one inch across southeastern Connecticut and the
twin forks of Long Island tonight. Dry Friday and Friday night.

Widespread significant precipitation is not expected from this
weekend into early next week.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.


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