Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 030848
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND HEADS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. ALOFT WEAK RIDGING BUILDS WITH MAINLY WEAK ZONAL
FLOW. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE REGION CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES OF
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WEAK ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MEANDER...DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH AN
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THE HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OR
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY UP THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH NOSING DOWN
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL GO...WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S....A CUT OFF LOW WILL
MEANDER OVER THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE A
WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
NOSE INTO OUR AREA...REMINISCENT OF A DAMMING SITUATION IN THE
WINTER. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DID NOTE THAT THE 00Z ECMWF
DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS...WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. AS SUCH....WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DECREASING POPS SOMEWHAT. ONLY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY...AND PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER COULD AFFECT THE REGION INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY...BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY...IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE N TODAY.

CONDS RANGE FROM LOW MVFR IN THE NY METRO TO IFR AT KGON/KSWF
WITH VFR AT KISP/KBDR. DIFFICULT ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING
OF IMPROVING CONDS. CONDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN STATUS QUO
THROUGH 12Z...PERHAPS KISP/KBDR DROP BACK TO MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK
AND THEN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. VFR THEN
PREVAILS THROUGH THE EVENING.

NE WINDS BLW 10KT EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WIND FORECAST...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING TO E THEN SE
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY REMAIN BELOW 2K FT BETWEEN 13Z-15Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY REMAIN BELOW 2K FT BETWEEN 13Z-15Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY REMAIN BELOW 2K FT BETWEEN 13Z-15Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY REMAIN BELOW 2K FT BETWEEN 13Z-15Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS MAY REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS MAY REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF NYC.
.THU-THU NIGHT...VFR POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING AT SRN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI.
.FRI-FRI NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
MORNING. CHANCE OF TSTMS AFTN INTO EVE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.SAT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. A WEAK LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THURSDAY TRACKS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH DURING THURSDAY. WIND REMAINS FROM THE EAST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING THURSDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE HIGH. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
DURING THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW.

WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES
BUILD ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY TO ABOVE 5 FT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET



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