Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 251132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A cold front over southeastern New York and southern New
England will drift south through the Tri-State Region today. An
unsettled weather pattern continues Sunday into the middle of
next week. Cold front to our south returns to the region Sunday
night into Monday and moves offshore Monday night. Another
frontal system approaches on Tuesday and moves across Tuesday
night into Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday ahead of
the next front on Friday.


Minor adjustments needed for temperature and dew point trends.
Have lowered temperatures across CT and southeastern NY more due
to rapid southward advancement of the cold front. Previous
discussion follows.

Temperatures are generally mild this morning amidst cloudy
conditions and subtle warm advection in southerly flow. High
temperatures will likely be achieved this morning or into the
early afternoon before a cold front begins to move through the
area from northeast to southwest. Initially very little
precipitation is expected to reach the ground, but gradual
saturation and increased forcing for ascent with an approaching
upper low and the cold front will lead to the development of
light rain by afternoon- evening.


Warm/moist advection will continue above the surface in broad
westerly then southwesterly flow, while cooler conditions at the
surface behind the cold front will maintain a strong inversion
over the area. Overall a favorable set up for patchy fog and
continued cloudy conditions as well as light rain or drizzle
through the weekend as an upper low slowly approaches the


Rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday as a short wave
passes through the area, allowing a warm front to return
northward. A second short wave quickly follows for Tuesday into
Wednesday, with the attendant surface trough/cold front moving
through Tuesday night. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be
above normal as southerly flow strengthens following the warm
frontal passage. By Wednesday, flow returns to a west-northwest
direction with subsidence, enhanced by downslope flow and
clearing skies again leading to another potentially above normal
temperature day. The unsettled pattern continues through the end
of the week, with a degree of uncertainty for Thursday and
Friday depending on the overall evolution of a series of upper
waves emanating from the Pacific.


A cold front moving slowly south through the terminals will move
south of the area this afternoon. High pressure builds to the
north and into the region tonight.

VFR conditions are expected to remain until early to mid
afternoon, 17Z to 19Z, as light rain and MVFR conditions
develop. As the rain ends drizzle will become likely tonight
with IFR ceilings likely, and possible brief IFR visibilities in
drizzle and fog.

There is uncertainty as to the timing of the cold front passage
and the developing lowering conditions, and how low ceilings
will become. As high pressure moves in late tonight, there may
be some improvement in ceilings.

SW to W winds 10 KT or less, to light and variable will shift to
the NE around 10 KT. The NE to E flow remains through 12Z

.Sunday-Monday...MVFR to IFR, with LIFR or lower possible.
Periods of rain, drizzle and fog.
.Monday night-Tuesday night...MVFR or lower possible.
.Wednesday...becoming VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible in the


A back door cold front was approaching from southern New England
into southeastern New York. The front is expected to move
slowly across the waters this morning into this afternoon. A
weak surface pressure gradient was keeping winds below small
craft advisory levels. However, ocean seas east of Fire Island
Inlet were running 4 to 6 feet with a component of a short
period southerly swell. With the passage of the cold front an
east to northeast flow develops and persists at least through
the weekend as the cold front remains south of the waters. The
long fetch easterly flow will allow for ocean seas to remain at
minimal small craft levels into at least Sunday and possibly
into the beginning of the week. There may be a brief period late
this afternoon into this evening when ocean seas will be below
small craft levels.

With seas being the main hazard have converted to a small craft for
hazardous seas, Sunday west of Fire Island Inlet, and today through
Sunday east of Fire Island Inlet.

From late Monday through Monday night, sub-sca conditions are
forecast with an overall weak pressure gradient. Seas may build
again to around 5 feet Tuesday as a cold front passes through the
waters. Otherwise winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into


Rain chances gradually increase through Monday, with around a
half inch to an inch accumulation overall. Unsettled conditions
will continue through the week. With rain expected over a broad
period of time, no hydrologic concerns are anticipated at this


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ350-353.


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