Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281126
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST
TO EAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING AND WRAPPING UP BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS LI AND NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY MORNING WITH A
GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH THE
NORTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY
PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PCPN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH COLDER
AND DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HI PRES OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. DECREASING NW FLOW TODAY...BACKING TO THE
WNW IN THE AFTN. WINDS NEARLY CALM TNGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN MRNG...VFR WITH LGT S FLOW.
.SUN AFTN-EARLY MON MRNG...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX COAST AND -SN INLAND SUN NIGHT. SE SFC WND G15-20KT
POSSIBLE SUN AFTN.
.MON-TUE MRNG...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT MON AFTN/EVE.
.TUE AFTN-WED...IFR POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUE
NGT. RA LATE TUE NGT/WED MRNG. BECOMING VFR LATE WED. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM LINGERING SWELL AROUND 4.5FT ON THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
MRNG...HI PRES WILL KEEP COND BLW SCA LVLS TIL MON...WHEN A FRONTAL
SYS WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NGT
AND WED TO SCA LVLS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL COMPLEX APPROACHES. THE FRONT
MAY STALL INVOF THE WATERS THU...KEEPING SCA COND LOCKED IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT
ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC






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