Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 290530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN TO BETTER
MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND A JET STREAK
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT
AND OVER THE OCEAN WATERS S OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
2-3 AM AND THEN THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE GOING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE LIFTING MECHANISM ALOFT AS
DIAGNOSED WITH THE FRONT LEFT QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING GOING INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN
SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN
HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY.

UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.

DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE FROM W TO E.

E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUED QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD BUILD OCEAN
SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA FRI. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS AS
FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN
SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND
NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY
UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW


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