Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 230829
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
429 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS STILL GUSTING AT OR CLOSE TO ADVSY CRITERIA IN SUFFOLK AND
COASTAL CT FROM NEW HAVEN E SO WILL KEEP ADVSY GOING THROUGH 10Z.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA ACROSS
EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
WON`T BE AS STRONG AS LAST EVENING. GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS 30-40 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO LOW AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15
TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC
TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM FOR THE SOUND...HARBOR AND
BAYS...AND THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS THEN EXPECTED ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS ONCE GALES
SUBSIDE AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SUB-
ADVSY CONDS THEN EXPECTED ON FRI.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3
INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE
AFTER THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





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