Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 110027
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
827 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
THEN SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA AND MOVES TO OUR EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE NYC
METRO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS OVER THIS AREA TO CAPTURE THIS WITH ONLY A NEED FOR
MINOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

A WEAK LOW RIDES THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH MINIMAL FORCING ALOFT
FROM A PASSING VORT MAX...SO MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS FOR MOSTLY
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER COULD MAKE IT TO
LONG ISLAND...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEANS MORE TO A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE AREA
WOULD LEND TO OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT AT NORMAL...JUST A TAD COOLER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. REGION REMAINS ANOTHER DAY UNDER TROUGHING
ALOFT. OVERALL...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME INDICATIONS THAT A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE AFTN COULD
TRIGGER AN ISO DIURNAL SHOWER OR TSTM OVER MAINLY INTERIOR REGIONS
WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER HEATING/INSTABILITY SO WILL KEEP THE
INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHC POPS. WILL ADMIT THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THIS COULD EXCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE ANY
FORCING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANY PCPN THREAT DIMINISHES QUICKLY TOMORROW EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY BUILDING IN ALOFT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE RETURNS...COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING. TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SATURDAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH
STABILIZING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. FOR HIGHS SATURDAY
USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM950-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE - WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS A RESULT...FOR NOW THINK ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF ACROSS FAR NW/ZONES UNTIL AFTER 10Z...SO
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL.

COMBINATION OF 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH TO THE
NE AND PASSING OF RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH
SUNDAY...WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS - EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
PORTIONS OF FAR SE ZONES - MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND LACK OF JET FORCING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEATHER
WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING THEN PASSING COLD FRONT.
FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH END CHANCE...AS TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS PROBLEMATIC THIS TIME OUT...PLUS MODELS
HANDLING OF CLOSED LOWS CAN BE SUSPECT AT TIMES THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY NOTING THIS IS AN ACLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN GENERALLY IN WARM SECTOR - HAVE GONE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY (REFLECTING UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL TIMING). IT
APPEARS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN THAT TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR INITIAL
THOUGHTS ON POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND ANY IMPACTS.

FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CLOSED LOW ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE NE INTO THURSDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW...THERE
COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY SHRA/TSTMS THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ITS
COLD POOL. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE THIS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN TREND TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
QUITE OF BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND TUESDAY ON
AS IT DEPENDS ON EXACT TRACK/EVOLUTION OF CLOSED UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AND WILL LIKELY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT.

NEXT 24H WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A REPLAY OF WHAT WE HAD TODAY WITH A
N/NE FLOW FRI MORNING GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE SE IN THE
AFT. WINDS SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.

VFR WITH A FEW-SCT CU AT 5-6 KFT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING...LOW STRATUS/FOG WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOCAL MVFR OR
LOWER CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...COUPLED WITH A POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD PRODUCE WAVES
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER MAINLY EASTERN COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL - WIDESPREAD 1/2
INCH OR MORE - FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATERS COULD REACH AROUND 2 INCHES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME -
FAVORING AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC
THREATS...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





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