Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 300154
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
954 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHANGES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RAISED DEW POINTS NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE SHORE...DEW POINTS
REMAIN VERY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...PER IR IMAGERY.

AS SUCH...TEMPS MAY BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST FROM POINT TO
POINT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SW FLOW INCREASES A BIT...AND
WEAK WAA STRENGTHENS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
AND UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR NYC
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AND THEN AS THERMAL PROFILES
WARM UP DURING THE MORNING...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND ANY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE.

NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1/10 INCH QPF...AND NOT EXPECTING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.

SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...
TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NYC AND NEARBY SUBURBS...
AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL START OUT DRY AS THE AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS AND POPS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND TAPERING PRECIP BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR. MID LEVEL DECK INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS
IN SCT SHOWERS MON MORNING. PREFER TO KEEP TAFS VFR AT THIS TIME
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT A
FEW MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY...WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SUB
VFR NEAR THE COAST AS THE HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE INCREASED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS TONIGHT...AND INCREASES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD 18Z MON....WITH A
SHIFT TO THE W/NW LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS 20 TO
25 KTS DURING THE DAY EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA/SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SUB VFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SW GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EVENING.

WINDS/OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING ON ALL
WATERS...AND THEN CONDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WAVES INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HAVING NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS



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