Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 280524
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST DISCUSSION...SEE
BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO W OK
TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NW OK A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT...AND SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES.
THERE ARE SLIGHT HINTS OF BR TOWARD SUNRISE...AS HIGHER-DEWPOINT
AIR MOVES N AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS
FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON TODAY...WITH CURRENT TEMPS EXCEEDING 80 F
A FEW PLACES ACROSS NW OK. A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER I44
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVG TEMPS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW OK LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND THEN NORTHERN TX BY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S THU AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. VERY LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 1-3.

THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS FAIRLY WET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TEXAS SATURDAY...AS WIDESPREAD DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BASED ON MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...BUT THE ECMWF IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AM. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE
COLDER AIR MASS ARRIVING EARLIER...AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. BY THAT
TIME...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER OUR
SE/E ZONES. SNOW AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE (LESS THAN AN
INCH) FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  78  45  54 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  77  43  57 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  44  80  47  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           41  74  38  53 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  76  41  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         46  76  50  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/23/23



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