


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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146 FXUS64 KOUN 160558 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Rain chances this afternoon/evening. - Rain chances return to northern and central Oklahoma tonight into Thursday. A few strong to severe storms possible. - Hot and humid towards end of the week into early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Models show the potential for a disturbance to move into the area later today. This feature combined with heating of the moist airmass will bring another chance (15-30%) for isolated/scattered showers/storms to develop in parts of southern OK and western north TX this afternoon with chances ending early this evening due to the loss of heating. Some of these storms may become strong with small hail and gusty winds. Heavy rain/localized flooding will also be a concern. The higher chance for showers/storms will be later this evening into tonight (Wed. night). Models show a shortwave moving across the northern and central Plains. This shortwave will cause a front to approach and begin to move into the area tonight. Showers/storms will be possible with the front across northern and central OK. Some of the storms could be strong to low end severe with strong winds the primary concern. Heavy rain will also be possible. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low/mid 90s again today with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Models show the previously mentioned front or at least the effective front pushing south across portions of the fa Thursday. Showers/storms will remain possible along and north of the front. There is some uncertainty on how far the front will push but right now looks like it could make it around the I-40 corridor so rain chances are currently along and north of I-40 with the highest chances (30-50%) in northern OK. Rain chances are expected to end Thu night. The front is expected to eventually stall and either wash out or lift back north. Cooler temperatures are expected north of the front with highs in the 80s and low 90s whereas south of the front temperatures are expected to climb into the mid/upper 90s. On Friday, models show the upper high beginning to build into the region. This will lead to warmer temperatures Fri. afternoon with some locations in southwest OK and western north TX potentially hitting the century mark. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Models show the upper high continuing to build into and influence the region over the weekend into next week which will overall lead to a dry forecast. The exception could be in northern parts of the fa where shortwaves moving through the flow in the northern/central Plains may bring a chance for showers/storms although currently don`t have any PoPs in the forecast just something to keep an eye on. The upper high will bring hotter temperatures to the fa with a number of locations probably seeing triple digit highs. The hot temperatures will combine with humid conditions to lead to triple digit heat index values, especially over the weekend into early next week. Heat index values could climb as high as 105 to 110 which will likely lead to multiple days of heat advisories and maybe warnings for some locations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Transient gustiness resulting from outflow from this evening`s storms may continue a few more hours before winds subside across most of the area for the night. Breezy south winds expected tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 93 74 94 73 / 10 10 20 10 Hobart OK 97 73 98 72 / 0 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 95 74 99 73 / 20 20 0 0 Gage OK 96 68 88 67 / 0 40 30 20 Ponca City OK 94 74 91 71 / 0 30 50 20 Durant OK 94 75 97 73 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...14