Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 011733
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1133 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.AVIATION...
TAFs 0118/0218...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A gusty
northerly wind will decrease through the afternoon with
a light and variable wind tonight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1034 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

UPDATE...
Gusty winds this morning will decrease some this afternoon as sfc
high builds into the region. Low RH expected across the fa today
as drier air continues to move into the area. Current dewpoints
are lower than forecasted in many locations so have lowered them
across the area for the rest of the day. With the gusty winds and
low humidities, elevated to near critical wildfire spread
conditions are still expected across the area so will continue
with the fire danger statement. All updates out soon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 542 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

AVIATION...01/12z TAF Issuance...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. North/northwest
winds will persist, increasing through the late morning through
the afternoon. Sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph at times,
gusting to 25, periodically. Winds will relax late in the
afternoon, gradually shifting to the northeast and east overnight.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast focus remains on Elevated to Near Critical fire weather
conditions today, post frontal.

This morning, the cold front continues to push south/southeast
across the region, pushing beyond the Red River into north Texas
through 330 AM CST. Gusty north winds accompany the frontal passage,
with a report of a loose trash can or two in Norman earlier, but the
northwest winds usually begin to relax within a few hours after
passage. Through 5 to 7 AM, gusts around 30 to 35 mph will remain
possible across much of southern Oklahoma. Temperatures will also be
noticeably cooler, low 30s in the north to mid 40s across Texoma.

Today, a rather stout surface ridge will continue to build down the
western high plains, southeastward across the Panhandles and much of
Oklahoma and western north Texas. In response, surface winds will
remain out of the north/northwest, increasing through the afternoon,
with sustained winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts around 25 mph, with the
strongest winds across western Oklahoma. Additionally, relative
humidities will obviously be very low across the region, due to the
dry northwesterly flow. Minimum RH values will dip into the mid
teens across the region. Under clear skies, temperatures will top
out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. RH is primarily the driver for
the Elevated to Near-Critical fire weather conditions across the
area. ERC-G values are over the 50 percentile, however, given modest
winds and cooler temperatures, will forgo a Red Flag Warning as any
fires today would likely be of the initial attack variety, and stick
with a Fire Danger Statement for most of the area.

Overall, the forecast remains relatively quiet through the end of
the week. With the spread of the surface high across the central and
southern plains, lows Thursday morning will dip at or just below
freezing for nearly all. With a broad 500mb ridge developing over
the western U.S. into Friday, the surface high will slide eastward,
opening up warm air advection through the day across Texas into the
plains states. Highs on Friday will push into the mid to upper 60s.
With moisture return increasing through Saturday, will likely see
similar highs, but increasing cloud cover, before shower and
thunderstorm chances return on Sunday across eastern Oklahoma as a
surface trough begins to increase to the northwest, from the
northern plains to southeastern Colorado.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  31  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         60  29  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  61  31  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           56  23  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     58  27  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         64  35  64  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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