Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 262042
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
142 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Hot and dry conditions with light winds are expected under strong
high pressure this week. Some increase in moisture will lead to a
few afternoon and evening thunderstorms from Thursday through the
weekend, with temperatures easing down for the weekend as high
pressure weakens and clouds increase.
The main story continues to be the heat through Friday. High
pressure will remain over the silver state into Thursday and
Friday with temperatures peaking on those days. High will break
the century mark in several locations later this afternoon, with
more to follow the next three days. Highs are likely to be 105+ in
the lower valley near the highway 95 corridor. Will continue the
heat advisory there with the very hot temps. Other areas along the
Sierra Front and the deserts of Eastern CA will also be 100-105,
but not quite to criteria. Temps will cool off at night though
with lows 55-65 the next couple nights before warming for Friday
and Saturday mornings.
The other concern will be thunderstorms beginning Thursday
afternoon. Models hint at some cumulus development tomorrow, but
the first day with the potential for thunderstorms looks to be
Thursday. Moisture is slowly seeping into the area with dewpoints
up over the past 48 hours. However, it will take a couple more
days combined with the increased heating to finally pop something.
Have left Thursday`s chance over the crest south of Tahoe with
storms Friday as far north as Susanville through the Sierra Front.
These storms will be slow moving so some rain will fall. However,
the cores are likely to be small with very dry low levels. Dry
lightning and gusty outflow winds are possible with any storm, but
fortunately the storms look to be quite isolated right now.
Over the weekend, the models show southwest flow slowly
increasing. Saturday the models are on the fence as to how quickly
the moisture get pushed east with a better push Sunday. Left the
mention of storms for both days where they are at, although did
trip a little bit north of Reno/Tahoe.
Early next week it looks like more dry southwest flow and
temperatures cooling back closer to average. At this point we are
not expecting any thunderstorms although the EC is not as strong
with the SW flow and does keep moisture lingering over southern
NV. If this becomes a trend, we may need to keep thunderstorms
over Mono-Mineral counties where the southwest flow will be light
and moisture may not get scoured.
Hot and dry conditions continue, with some smoke and haze from
the Soberanes Fire near Monterey CA. So far visibility restrictions
have been minimal as the flow aloft is less favorable for pushing
smoke into the region.
On Wednesday a few more towering cumulus builds ups are possible
along the Sierra Crest south of KTVL with the threat for
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The biggest coverage day appears
to be Friday, where storms may develop around the Reno-Tahoe-Carson
terminals. With the heat, most storms will be high based (>10,000
feet msl) and produce very limited rainfall, leaving strong outflow
winds as the main threat. Brong
NV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 PM PDT Friday
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