Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 282109
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
209 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW CUMULUS IS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF LASSEN AND FAR
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LIMITED ACROSS THIS
AREA BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

BY FRIDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND
WILL ACT TO INCREASE AFTERNOON WINDS BUT WILL NOT OFFER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. MAIN CORE OF THE JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OVER
OREGON WHICH WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS. ENHANCED SURFACE
PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL PROVIDE SUSTAINED WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF I-80 WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AND THE COMBINATION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED AREAS OF SHORT LIVED PERIODS OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS LAKES BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AND
JET LEVEL WINDS DIP FURTHER SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A FEW DEGREES
SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...

PRETTY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON SUNDAY A
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LEAVES A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA, YIELDING THE COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SUBTLE
RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. NEGLIGIBLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY
WEAK AFTERNOON/EVENING WESTERLIES POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THINGS MAY GET MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE PAC NW COASTLINE AFTER WEDNESDAY. THIS
COULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV BUT
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROF AND JET STREAM
WILL GET THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW IN TERMS OF WINDS LATE
WEEK. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY SIGNALS FOR PRECIP EITHER AS MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION IN AZ. CS


.AVIATION...

MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TAFS IS HIGH. WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUE. LIGHT AFTERNOON/EVENING WESTERLIES TODAY. WINDS INCREASE
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR
RNO/CXP. SOME POCKETS OF BLDU POSSIBLE NEAR CARSON SINK (LOL/NFL) AND
BURNING MAN AIR FIELD. SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 6Z/FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND - GUSTY
WINDS AGAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION. CS


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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