Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 301049
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
349 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF VERY
WARM CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST, LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND, FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THIS WEEK WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 20-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

THE UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV WILL
CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE IMPROVED
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO FURTHER WARMING OVER YESTERDAY
FOR THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS. SOME LOWER ELEVATION SITES COULD REACH
80 DEGREES.

THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH HELPED PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN ALPINE AND MONO COUNTIES WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR PRODUCING CUMULUS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST, BUT THE ABSENCE OF
FORCING DUE TO THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR T-STORM FORMATION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN MOST AREAS. THESE SPEEDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KICK UP AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE USUAL
DESERT AND SINK AREAS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER, EXCEPT NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING EVEN
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS REMAINING BELOW 60
DEGREES IN MOST VALLEYS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING A SLIDER TYPE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO THE RENO
AND TAHOE AREAS. OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORED A MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK
FARTHER NORTH WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR THE REGION. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WED
AFTERNOON-WED NIGHT. WE DID EXTEND THE POTENTIAL A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH TO NEAR HIGHWAY 50, AS THE SCENARIO FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DID HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA. MJD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE SHIFTING LONGWAVE PATTERN IN THE PACIFIC LATER THIS WEEK WILL
ALLOW FOR JET ENERGY TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS TO START THE
MONTH OF APRIL.

THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE,
BUT THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THE
COLD AIR WILL HELP TO DROP SNOW LEVELS BELOW 5000 FEET IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITH PELLET SHOWERS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BASED ON
TIME OF DAY, SNOW ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY ON ROADWAYS, BUT IF
SHOWERS ARE HEAVY ENOUGH, BRIEF PERIODS OF SLICK ROADS COULD
OCCUR.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR VIEWING THE TOTAL, ALBEIT SHORT, LUNAR ECLIPSE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY JUST BE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD, BUT CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST CLOUD FORECAST.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK INTERESTING WITH A COLDER AND
WETTER SYSTEM POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS DUE TO LACK
OF RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY AND LARGER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. LAST
NIGHT THE GFS WAS THE COLDER AND WETTER MODEL, WITH IMPACTS MAINLY
AROUND THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME. TONIGHT, THE EC LOOKS LIKE THE
OLD GFS, WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS KEEPS THE STORM TRACK FARTHER
NORTH. THE BEST SIGNAL IS FOR THE COOLER PATTERN, BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SIGNAL, MOISTURE POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND BROUGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CUMULUS BUILD UPS ALONG THE SIERRA
FROM HIGHWAY 50 SOUTH. HOWEVER, NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 30 TO 35 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA AND CROSSWIND IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
FOR KRNO/KCXP/KMMH. LLWS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
SIMILAR WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 5000 FEET
AGL, BUT ROTORS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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