Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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836
FXUS65 KREV 102217
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE WEAK INTO FRIDAY, BUT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
STRONGER OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MIXING IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENS AS A COUPLE SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND WINDS INCREASING ALOFT, MIXING IS
EXPECTED TO BE BETTER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING SO WHILE MOUNTAINS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY, VALLEY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THE NEXT TWO DAYS, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR.

THE MOST PROMINENT OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE
AS TIME GOES BY SO REMOVED THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY.
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL A
LITTLE MORE AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RIDGING ALOFT STAYS IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS THE TAIL END OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE CLOUDS AND A SWITCH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MORE STRONGLY OVERHEAD. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S (SIERRA BELOW 8000
FT) TO THE 60S (LOWER VALLEYS) BY TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS SW-W
FOR INCREASED MIXING. THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS 69 FOR TUESDAY AT THE
RENO AIRPORT, WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF SIERRA RIDGE WINDS
CAN INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH FOR GOOD MIXING.

MANY MODELS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SHOWING A TROUGH
REACHING CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE
REMAINS THE QUESTION OF WHETHER A NORTHERN TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH
A REMNANT CLOSE LOW AROUND 20N/130W AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, LEAVING
CONFIDENCE LOW REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, EVEN IF
THE ENERGIES DO NOT MERGE IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY SO I HAVE BUMPED UP POP TO A WIDESPREAD
CHANCE. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RIDGE WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 30 KTS.

HIGH CLOUDS AND A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN MINIMIZE THE
CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) FOR FZFG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN THE
KTRK/MARTIS VALLEY AREA. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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