Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 241002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
302 AM PDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Breezy conditions and some showers are expected today as low
pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest. More rain is expected
into Northeast California Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.
More widespread rain with high elevation snow is likely late in
the week, with forecast confidence increasing for arrival Friday
and moderate amounts of precipitation.


Made a bunch of adjustments to today, but otherwise changed little
from tonight through Wednesday. Current satellite/radar trends
show numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms developing in the
Sierra foothills west of the crest. These have increased in the
last several hours with some spillover east of the crest and into
Western NV. As a result, have increased precip chances
significantly for today, especially in the Sierra. Occasional
showers will occur there with a few flashes of lightning as well.
Amounts will be up to 1/4" with locally higher amounts. Above 8500
feet or so it will fall as snow with a couple inches of snow

Aside from the precip, winds will also be a concern. 40-50 kts at
700 mb from the SSW will be present near and just east of the
Sierra. Some of these winds will mix down with gusts of 40-45 mph
likely across much of the area. The wind advisory for the north
will continue, and peak gusts to 50 mph are possible there as well
as localized areas along the Sierra Front.

After today, a weakening frontal band will move into Northeast CA
with some light to moderate rain late tonight into Tuesday.
Amounts around 1/4" are likely in Western Lassen County with
lighter amounts to the east and south. Winds will also gradually
diminish overnight except over the Sierra Crest and Lake Tahoe so
extended the lake wind advisory there through tonight.

Tuesday will see lighter winds overall with most of the precip
confined to areas north of Susanville and Gerlach. Temperatures
will remain mild and a few degrees above seasonable averages. the
precip will move north of the Oregon border by Wednesday morning
as heights rise and the flow becomes more south. This is due to
the next trough deepening off the coast. More on that trough

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Only minor changes made to the long term forecast, as models
continue to come into better agreement with the incoming weather
systems for the end of the week and into the weekend. Forecaster
confidence continues to rise, with medium-high confidence for this
incoming system. Thursday`s weather still looks to be pretty mild
as shortwave ridging remains over the Great Basin ahead of the
incoming low pressure.

Another low pressure disturbance will move into CA Thursday night
into Friday, picking up subtropical moisture ahead of it and
bringing it into the Sierra and western NV by early Friday. The
latest ECMWF continues to be about 6-12 hours faster than the GFS,
bringing moisture into the Sierra by Thursday night. We have
continued to increase chances of precipitation Thursday night and
Friday across most of the area as this looks to be the consensus for
the best timing. Storm total precipitation could be significant for
the Sierra, with some models showing over one inch of QPF from the
Tahoe Basin down into Mono County. Snow levels look to remain above
9500 feet for this storm, with only the highest elevation of the
Sierra seeing snow. Spillover also looks very favorable for this
system, due to unstable conditions, bringing up to 0.25-0.50" of
rainfall into the valleys of western NV. A few showers will linger
in the Sierra into Saturday as shortwave ridging moves overhead.

Another low pressure is set to move into CA/NV by Sunday, bringing
another chance for valley rains and mountain snow. Snow levels look
to be a bit lower with this storm, around 7500-8500 feet. Hoon


Low pressure moving into the region will bring gusty winds today
and showers. There could be some periods of MVFR ceilings for
TVL/TRK through Tuesday. Expect mountain obscurations and some
icing/turbulence into and out of Sierra terminals. Low level wind
shear may also be possible especially this morning over the Sierra
and far western NV before the winds mix down later today.

Wind gusts around 30-35 kts are expected this afternoon Sierra and
far western Nevada terminals, highest in north- south valleys
(including KRNO/KTVL). A few higher gusts to 40 kts are possible in
and near the Sierra foothills. Out in west- central NV, gusts are
expected to top out in the 25-30 kts range. Hoon


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening

     Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Lake Tahoe in

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ004.

CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening

     Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Lake Tahoe in



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