Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRNK 061736
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO  THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1205 PM EDT MONDAY EDT...

ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS AXIS FURTHER SOUTH WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WHICH LEANED CLOSEST TO 14Z HRRR. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE BREAKS AND ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

AS OF 933 AM MONDAY EDT...

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT WSR-88D
TRENDS AND SHAPED LATE MORNING POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK WRFARW.
IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WITH
HIGH PWATS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS. RAISED
QPF FOR TODAY. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
MADE MINOR CHANGES FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY...

AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TODAY. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT...BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF STORMS SHOULD
LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT.

POPS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODELS.
BASICALLY KEEP CHANCE/LOW LIKELY THIS MORNING FROM THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY INTO THE SW VA MTNS/FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTH AND EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WITH UPPER LOW OPENING UP TO A TROUGH AND
SHEARING OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTIVATE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE INTO NRN VA/ERN WV...AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING. ONE
AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WOULD BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF
LYNCHBURG.

OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED OVER
THE NC COUNTIES TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA. MAY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE
SOUTH TODAY THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL STAY UP. MOS BLEND USED WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECT THE PATTERN TO WARM UP THIS PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS RISING. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FADE AND END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN TUESDAY
SHOULD BE OUR DRIER DAY THOUGH HOTTER...AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE TOWARD WV/KY BY WEDNESDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING GREATEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS
WITH LITTLE TO NONE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT WILL HANG ONTO
ISOLATED THREAT IN THE PIEDMONT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND
OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS.

WED NIGHT...CONVECTION FADES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SWELL HEIGHTS AT
500 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING MORE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO NRN VA/MD/PA.

FOR TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO OUR LAST FORECAST TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST...THEN
WEDNESDAY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN THE WEST PER HIGHER POPS...BUT
STILL WARM/SEASONAL WITH 80 TO 85...BUT STILL AROUND 90 OUT EAST.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S...TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TENDENCY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY SCATTERED
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC WHERE MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE...OUTFLOW FROM WHICH MAY DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO PENNNSYLVANIA LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED EARLY BEFORE POTENTIAL FOG ROLLS IN OVERNIGHT.
LOCATIONS WHICH RECIEVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ARE
LWB...BCB AND LYH AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD
OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH
OF THE REGION PER BUILDING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND SUBJECT TO DAILY
THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/WP


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.