Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 281151
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
651 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

BANDED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING SUPPORTED BY EARLIER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
STRONG NW FLOW WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER PER EVENING RNK SOUNDING. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING SHOULD SEE THE
85H COLD ADVECTION AND NW TRAJECTORY MAX OUT AROUND 12Z FOLLOWED
BY A WEAKER WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER WARMING ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBO WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM ALOFT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AN END BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NW WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LAST FAINT AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
ESPCLY IN BANDS FROM AROUND BLF TO WESTERN GREENBRIER CTY BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH A SPS RATHER THAN HOIST A SHORT
ADVISORY GIVEN MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO COVERAGE WITH TIME TOWARD
DAWN. NW FLOW ALSO REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES OUT TO
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL SO INCLUDED MENTION
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS EARLY ON.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD BRING MORE CLEARING TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES EAST OUTSIDE OF SOME LATE DAY CI/AC. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WHILE ARCTIC AIR
AND MORE CLOUDS EARLY SUPPORTS LOWERING HIGHS TO ONLY AROUND 30
SE WVA AND LOW/MID 30S BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH/EAST
WILL TOP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S GIVEN MORE INSOLATION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VARYING CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR AT
KBLF/KLWB TO MAINLY VFR BASES AT KBCB/KROA AND CLEAR OUT EAST. A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER AS
WELL MAINLY IN THE KBLF-KLWB-KBCB CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY. OTRW EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN SE WEST VA
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH CLEARING ESLW OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS
WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
BKN CIGS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS



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