035
FXUS61 KRNK 160017
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
817 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will remain very warm and muggy with a daily
threat of showers and thunderstorms. Greatest concentration of
storms today is expected along and east of the Blue Ridge where
opportunity for localized flooding is possible due to the storms
being very rain efficient. Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour
are possible, and this may lead to flooding if a storm lingers over
an area for even a short amount of time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

Ongoing storms across the area will continue for the next
several hours. Very heavy rainfall, resulting in areas of Flash
Flooding will be the primary threat. Should see storm intensity
an coverage subside by midnight to just a few isolated downpours
overnight. Likely to see fog again through the early morning
hours, especially across locations that received rain today.


Discussion as of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) More showers this afternoon and evening with potential for
flash flooding and severe weather again

2) A Flood Watch is in effect from 2PM-Midnight for counties mainly
east of the Blue Ridge.

With increased CAPE as diurnal heating continues to intensify,
convection has begun to kick off, especially along the
ridgelines where orographic effects aid the initial instability.
A light mean wind will cause most storms to drift almost
aimlessly with a slow speed, and new storms will largely be
outflow driven. PWATs today are abnormally high, much like
recent afternoons as well, ranging from 1.5-2" where highest
amounts are in the Piedmont. Rain showers and storms will be
efficient rain producers, and rates in excess of 2"/hr would not
be surprising. Inside of a slow moving cell, flash flooding
could begin quickly, especially in urban areas or areas which
have saturated soils (which is most of the forecast area east of
the Blue Ridge). A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the
afternoon through tonight to address these hydrologic concerns
east of the Blue Ridge.

Temperatures are generally above normal, but maximum
temperatures this afternoon will be dependent upon the
occurrence of storms and the length of time spent underneath
those storms. Blocking insolation and cool downdrafts in the
core of a cell will cause localized cooling.

Wednesday`s forecast will effectively be a persistence forecast,
as the stationary boundary to our north remains and the air mass
overhead will be high in moisture and above normal in
temperatures. Another afternoon of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with the potential for high rain rates is likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 102 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for daily chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

2) Conditions will stay warm and humid throughout the remainder of
this work week.

An upper level ridge off the southeast coast will keep warm and
humid conditions in the area through the period. High temperatures
will range in the 80s across the mountains to upper 80s to lower 90s
in the foothills and piedmont. Dew points will run in the mid 60s to
lower 70s west of the Blue Ridge and in the low to mid 70s east.
With the high humidity and light winds, temperatures will feel 3F-8F
warmer than they actual are, especially in the afternoon.

The combination of heat and moisture will also spark scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. PWATs are forecast to be in the
1.50 to 2.00 inch range. Spotty thunderstorms could produce 1-2
inches of rain in less than an hour. Some isolated slow-moving
storms may also drop 3+ inches of rain in an hour or two. With a wet
weather pattern the last several days, there will likely remain a
Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding each day along and east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 124 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for chances of showers and thunderstorms
to continue every afternoon.

2) Little change in the air mass is anticipated during the weekend
and into early next week.

The upper ridge in the west Atlantic will drift to the east but will
continue to keep its warm and humid influence on the region. The
threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also continue
into next week. A cold front is expected to approach the area early
next week but may stall to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Tuesday...

Generally VFR outside of any thunderstorm this evening through
midnight. Occasional sub-VFR from storms will be possible with
the primary threat being very heavy rainfall. Storms will
gradually decrease, giving way to fog development through the
early morning hours. A few hours of sub-VFR possible in areas
with fog through daybreak, along with low clouds less the 3kft.
Clouds will lift through the morning and all terminals should
return to VFR through tomorrow evening. Storm chances tomorrow
will be less, but any storm will be capable of brief instances
of sub-VFR.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The overall pattern remains stagnant for the remainder of this
week with a warm and humid air mass providing daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms and an overnight potential
for patchy fog. In general, conditions expected to be VFR for
most of this week with the exceptions being the aforementioned
afternoon storms and overnight fog which will result in tempo
sub-vfr conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ022>024-032>035-
     043>047-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...BMG/VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...BMG/VFJ