Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 042037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

...Much Colder and Potential for Light Snow Mid Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

The system that brought the wet weather this weekend will exit to
the east tonight. Clouds will gradually erode from the west
tonight. With a moist boundary layer and light wind expect areas
of fog to develop overnight into Monday morning. The fog could be
locally dense. In addition, with temperatures falling to near
freezing some freezing fog cannot be ruled out early Monday

The temporary break from the rain will persist through much of the
day Monday as surface high pressure moves off to the east. However
clouds will be on the increase by the afternoon as a well defined
mid level trough of low pressure lifts northeast from Texas. Light
rain may develop across far south central Missouri during the

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

The aforementioned system will track across the Lower Mississippi
Valley Monday night. A shield of rain will spread northward into
southern Missouri Monday night with rainfall focused across south
central Missouri and eastern Ozarks. The rain will taper off
Tuesday morning as this system tracks to the northeast across the
Ohio River Valley. Tuesday will be the last seasonably cool day
before the coldest airmass of the season arrives mid week.

An Arctic front will surge southeastward across the region
Wednesday as an upper level trough swings from the Rockies into
the central U.S. Good synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system along with adequate moisture to generate the potential for
wintry precipitation. Confidence that we will see light snow
continues to increase as models continue to converge on a

General solution is to bring the Arctic front across the Ozarks
during the day Wednesday with the development of weak surface low
pressure across Arkansas. Light precipitation in the form of rain
or rain snow mix will develop initially from the west during day.
Expect light snow to develop from west to east Wednesday afternoon
as cold air advection intensifies. Light snow will fall into
Wednesday evening before ending from the west.

Minor snow accumulations are certaintly possible but too early to
pin point exact amounts. We will have to closely monitor potential
impacts during the Wednesday afternoon and evening commute. Even
light snow amounts can impact travel here in the Ozarks. Stay
tuned to the latest weather information.

The Arctic air will settle into Ozarks Wednesday night through
Friday with lows falling into the lower teens. Wind chill values
will into the single digits to near zero Wednesday and Thursday

Some moderation in temperature is expected heading into next
weekend but temperatures will remain below normal. A passing upper
level disturbance may bring some light precipitation to the area
late next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Shortwave trough currently working its
way across the Missouri Ozarks, with surface trough delineating the
back edge of the preciptiation shield. Will see rain push east
through the far eastern Ozarks this afternoon, with improving flight
conditions at the TAF sites. Steadily rising ceilings will occur
as clearing line pushes eastward this afternoon and evening.

Surface high pressure settles over the region tonight with light
winds and clear skies. Short term models all indicating the likely
development of fog across much of the the area. Visibilities will
likely drop to IFR, with LIFR not out of the question at KSGF and
KBBG after 06z Tonight and persist through 15Z Monday.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.