Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Scattered showers and storms are spreading across portions of the
northern forecast area early this morning. Coverage in this
activity should decrease as the storms spread south early this
morning. A few showers and storms will remain possible into this
morning but most locations should remain dry. No severe weather
is expected during the morning hours.

A front will sag south through the area today with afternoon/evening
storms expected to redevelop along the front across far southern
Missouri on to the south into Arkansas. This activity will again
be scattered in nature. A few strong storms will be possible this
afternoon/evening generally south of Highway 60, with hail up to
the size of pennies and winds in excess of 50 mph possible.

Clouds have overspread much of the area from the storms to the
north. The clouds should slowly clear some this morning into this
afternoon. If clouds can hang on longer into the afternoon, this
will cause temperatures to be slightly cooler. Where the sun comes
out, highs in the low to mid 90s will occur. A drier airmass will
start to spread south into the area from the north, but not sure
how quickly that air mass will get into the area. Also with the
front over the area there is the potential for moisture pooling
along the front. Therefore, will continue to go with heat index
values generally around 100 to 107 for this afternoon and will continue
the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory as is until 7 pm
this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

The air mass will not be all that much cooler behind the front as
highs in the lower to middle 90s occur Monday and Tuesday. A
slight drier air mass will spread into the area and will result in
slightly cooler heat index values in the middle 90s to around 100

A few storms will be possible Monday and Tuesday, but will not be
an all day rain and any activity that does develop will likely be
hit and miss in nature.

An upper level ridge will then spread east across the Plains with
the eastern edge nudging across the area by Wednesday. This will
result in highs in the middle to upper 90s and moisture increasing
with heat index values back into the 100 to 105 range.

An upper level trough will then push the ridge back to the west
and put the area in northwest flow Thursday into the weekend. A
front will spread south through the area Thursday into Friday
bring better chances of showers and storms to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will move south into the area
during this taf period with winds gradually veering to the west
and northwest. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the
front, primarily after 15z. TAFs are vfr, but we may see
mvfr/brief ifr conditions with heavier showers.


MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ082-090>092-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-



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