Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 012037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
237 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 0237 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2015

The Upper Level low that sat over the southwestern portions of the
US through the weekend is finally on its way out. A few high clouds
have been observed, however, a much better day today than we`ve seen
in a while.

This upper level low will continue to move north and east through the
short term. Before it does, one more wave will swing through the
region. Models appear dry, however, there may be some increase in
cloud cover overnight tonight. This may help keep overnight lows a
tad warmer, especially over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Clouds should quickly clear the region by Wednesday morning as the
wave continues to move out of our region. In its wake, sunny skies can
be expected though temperatures will be cool.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0237 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2015

As the upper level low continues to move eastward, a dry northwest
flow will develop and continue through late week. Over time, "trofing"
will eventually be replaced with a short wave ridge ahead of the next
trof due into the region by Sunday. Guidance is still indicating a
signal for precip late this weekend and into early next week as the
short wave closes off and slides (depending on which global you pick)
southeast/east of the region. Confidence is low at this time given
some differences among the globals. At this juncture, Kept low POPs
and QPF to compensate for the uncertainty.

The GFS has the aforementioned system as a rather progressive one
before it closes off. The ECMWF shows the close off a little sooner
and closer to our area, however, also shows a progressive system. The
speed of the system should be watched as time nears. If a slower
solution is realized, energy may swing around the northwest side of
the upper level low causing an uptick in clouds and perhaps an
introduction to additional POPs in the future. For now, current thinking
is the system will not slow too much as a mid level wave (kicker) will
help boot this feature east early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2015

Flight concerns across the Ozarks can expect gusty surface winds
from the west to southwest with VFR conditions through midnight.
As the upper level trough begins to swing east, wrap around
moisture will bring the low MVFR ceilings to the region around
09z with broken to overcast skies through mid day Wednesday.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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