Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 282031

331 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Showers/storms are occurring ahead of a shortwave/mesovort now
moving into the western cwfa and nw AR. Most isolated-scattered
deeper convection is confined to outflow dominate storms in our
cwfa and over north central AR. Still some some ocnl small hail
risk with stronger updrafts along with brief downpours. Fairly
ordinary looking convection over NW AR underneath the the upper
vort has produced some wind damage so will continue to monitor

Flood advisory/flash flood warning for a couple of se KS counties
is ongoing, and may be okay to let go at 5 pm. Flash flood watch
for out western counties is valid through tonight, but the most
the near term concerns are waning for now.

Once current convection decreases by early this evening in the
wake of the shortwave, there will likely be a fairly quiet wx
period for much of the nighttime period. Another shortwave is
progged to move into eastern OK/southeast Kansas toward 12z/7am
along with a moderately increasing sw low level jet. Rain chances
are expected to increase again west to east, but overall
instability looks limited Fri but a limited severe risk will occur
where/when/if pockets of instability can develop.

Progged rainfall amounts are a bit of the roll of the dice right
now. With weak synoptic scale features in terms of both the
approaching shortwave and sfc front, the chances for excessive
rainfall will largely be driven by mesoscale features and
convective efficiency. Reluctant to add to the current flash flood
watch either geographically or temporally. QPF wise the best
average rainfall amounts in the grids is around an inch from
tonight through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

The best overall chances for rain will be early in this period
from Friday night through midday Saturday as the front and shortwave
move through. A part of the shortwave cuts off over the lower MS
Vly on Monday while an upper level ridge builds into the Plains.
Rain chances will linger Sunday, mainly over south central MO, but
overall expect generally dry weather early next week.

Another approaching longwave trough is progged to move east into
the western CONUS by Thu with west-southwest upper flow and lead
impulses again bringing rain chances by Thu/Day 7.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms were moving across much of the Ozarks
affecting aerodromes across the area. MVFR to IFR conditions will
affect terminals as storms move over the airfield. Otherwise VFR
with ceilings around 4kft to occasional MVFR will occur.
Conditions overnight will improve with high VFR ceilings across
the region. Fog will again be possible for some areas just before
and through sunrise however, before improving to VFR for the
remainder of the morning hours.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.



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