Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 301016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ENTER NORTHERN UTAH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS
UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPS EXCEEDING LATE MAY NORMS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.50 AND
0.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AND GOOD DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING SHOULD INITIATE TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS
MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING
A FAIRLY QUICKLY END TO CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING.

THE AXIS OF THE NOW STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN
UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO
FURTHER BOOST TEMPS AREAWIDE. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STRONG
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS IS UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION
UNDER THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST UTAH EARLY
MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VERY
WARM TEMPS WILL PERSIST...WITH WINDS DECREASING AND TEMPS FALLING
BACK TO NEAR EARLY JUNE NORMS BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONVECTION FORMING BACK IN THE COOLER
AIR NEAR THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. FOCUSING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SUPPORTED BY DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITH THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE CYCLONIC WEST-SOUTHWEST REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DYNAMIC LIFT AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
UTAH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT VERY MUCH
ALIGNED EVEN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS LONG RANGE. THE EC HAS A
SOMEWHAT DEEPER OF A TROUGH BRUSHING BY NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY WITH
H7 TEMPS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS. THE EC GETS EXCITED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLER AIR BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. DO NOT SEE THIS HAPPENING AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS EVEN
WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE OPERATION GFS RUN SO HAVE BASICALLY
IGNORED EC AT THIS TIME.

THE EC DEEPENS A TROUGH OVER WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS JUST SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS LESS ENERGETIC WITH THIS TROUGH
...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...THAN ITS OPERATIONAL RUN BUT THERE IS 30-45
METERS OF DISPARITY WITHIN THE GFS MODEL RUNS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE THROUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MEANS
THAT...IF ANYTHING...THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOWER AND PROBABLY DEEPER
LATE IN THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS UP THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
THEN STARTED TO LEAN A LITTLE TOWARDS THE EC FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER WEEKS OF COOL AND WET WEATHER EARLY SUMMER
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL SET IN SUNDAY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY OVER
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. NORMALLY THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WOULD
BE OF CONCERN BUT NOT WITH THE NON-CRITICAL FUEL CONDITIONS
PRESENTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.

THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY BY A TROUGH SWINGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME COOLING WILL
KNOCK US BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE DISTRICT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN THE LONG
PROCESS OF MATURING AND DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECT TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...NO METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE SLC TERMINAL TODAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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