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000
FXUS62 KTBW 082011
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR IMAGERY VOID OF ANY
METEOROLOGICAL RETURNS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT
REVOLVE AROUND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME INCREASE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RH LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...SO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS TO
MOVE IN HERE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY
AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORID PENINSULA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
AND WITH A STRONG WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER JET RUNNING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...WOULD EXPECTED SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUD TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO BE THE RULE. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...AND IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT FIVE DAYS OUT THAT IS NOT A BIG
DIFFERENCE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MOS
NUMBERS HAVE ALSO COME MORE IN LINE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH THE ECMWF SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS NUMBERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL TO END
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARED UP NICELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A BAY/SEA BREEZE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...GIVING WAY
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE INLAND FROM
THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE COAST
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  54  75  59  76 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  55  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  53  79  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  53  75  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  43  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  56  76  60  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM...CLOSE
AVIATION...WYNN