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000
FXUS62 KTBW 290212 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
910 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES ARE OCCURRING WITH LIGHT WINDS TRENDING TOWARD A LAND BREEZE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND 50S OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING IS DRIER THAN HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS SINCE THE PRIMARY FRONT PASSED AND THIS IS EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY ALSO. THE SOUNDING WINDS REVEAL NORTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTH
AND CENTRAL FL WITHIN THE FIRST SEVERAL KFT OF THE SURFACE. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING. THE NORTH FLORIDA SOUNDING LOCATIONS
ARE STILL MORE NORTHERLY SO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW LOCATIONS ALREADY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ENSURE THAT DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES
AND SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF FLORIDA...IT WILL ACT TO
LIFT THE FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
TREKKING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND WILL DRAG A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5-2.0 INCHES. AS A RESULT...RAIN
CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL GET KNOCKED BACK DOWN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME REBOUND IN RH FIELDS ON
FRIDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT SMOKE
COULD BE A PROBLEM NEAR ROADWAYS WHERE SEVERAL FIRES ARE BURNING IN
THE AREA EVEN THOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF IMPULSES OR MINOR COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE
WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHIFT EAST
AND REMAIN NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHING WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY PICK
BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EAST
AND FALLING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY THE WIND PICKS UP AGAIN
TO THE 15 KNOT RANGE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT THE
WIND MAY BE NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA A FEW TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.



&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/TD/PC