Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 271449
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS
MAKING A PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ARE
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE
A DECENT WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING UNDER ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OVER LEVY
COUNTY AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH DURATIONS
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER LEVY DO NOT LOOK LONG ENOUGH FOR A
FREEZE WARNING...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
NATURE COAST...AND WIND CHILLS COULD BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN OF NOTE WILL BE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY FOR PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES UNDER BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS STARTED EARLY FOR
THE GULF WATERS AS OFFSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY TOPPING 20 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK OVERALL...AND ONLY MINOR GRID
EDITS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE STARTED
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WAS INITIALLY FORECAST...SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS WAS STARTED EARLY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE
FORCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUAL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  43  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  35  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  63  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




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