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000
FXUS62 KTBW 300122
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
922 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A ROBUST UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA TROUGHED DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHED TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT FROM NORTHERN FL TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE FL STRAITS...BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA...TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF WATERS.

THE UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE WESTERN SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHOWER/STORM TIMING AND COVERAGE TO
BOTH REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE SHIFT IN THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE. FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. WESTERLY WINDS...BUT
BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST AFTER THE BOUNDARY MOVES BY...WILL CONTINUE
BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENT AND HAVE ALLOWED THE COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE TO
EXPIRE AT 800 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/00Z-31/00Z...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR WITH ISOLD
TSRA TIL 02Z IN THE SOUTH. WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH HAVE
KEPT TPA/LAL/PIE CONVECTION FREE UNTIL 18Z. TERMINALS FROM SRQ SOUTH
MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA DRIFTING ONSHORE JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH VCTS
BEGINNING LATE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR TO LCL IFR WITH GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIE DOWN A BIT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  76  92 /  20  20   0  20
FMY  77  92  77  93 /  20  60  20  30
GIF  76  94  74  95 /  30  20  10  30
SRQ  77  92  76  90 /  20  40  10  20
BKV  70  93  67  93 /  10  10  10  20
SPG  81  91  78  90 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD