Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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824
FXUS62 KTBW 231838
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
238 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Sunday)...
The upper-level low spinning along the northern Gulf coast today
will slowly shift westward tonight and tomorrow, with Florida
remaining on its eastern periphery. At the surface, high pressure
will remain centered north of the region through tomorrow as
Hurricane Maria continues to move northward to the east of the
state. This will keep a low-level east to northeast flow across the
forecast area through the end of the weekend. This flow should be a
bit lighter tomorrow afternoon, with more of a west coast sea breeze
allowed to form. With precipitable water values forecast to remain
close to those for today, we can again expect to see a scattering of
showers and thunderstorms, generally moving toward the coast. High
temperatures will run in the upper 80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Saturday)...
An amplified upper level pattern continues over the CONUS with deep
troughing extending over the western half of the U.S. Closer to
home, ridging extends over the east coast. This ridge is helping to
steer Hurricane Maria and keep it off to the east of the eastern
seaboard. On the surface, high pressure will remain in control of
the weather across the Florida peninsula. In the western Atlantic,
Hurricane Maria continues to make her way northward. Models continue
to take this storm to the north and Maria is not expected to pose a
threat to the Florida peninsula. With high pressure over the region
for the next several days, rain chances will be on the low side (10-
30%) POPs with seasonal temps expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms generally moving westward toward
the terminals could lead to brief vis or cig restrictions through the
rest of the afternoon and evening, but otherwise VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Winds will remain out of the east/northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the north will keep an east to northeast flow across
the waters for the next several days with an overnight surge tonight
to near or just into exercise caution range. The flow will lighten a
bit starting Sunday, which will allow the west coast sea breeze to
develop each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, so no
fire weather concerns. No significant or widespread fog is expected
for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  90  75  90 /  10  30  20  10
FMY  74  90  75  90 /  10  40  30  20
GIF  73  90  73  92 /  10  30  10  20
SRQ  74  88  75  88 /  10  30  30  10
BKV  72  90  71  92 /  10  30  20  10
SPG  75  90  77  89 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/Carlisle
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn



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