Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 251400
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1000 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
12Z TBW sounding indicates drier air aloft has advected over
the region as PCPW value has dropped to 1.61 inches. An U/L
ridge persists over the Florida peninsula creating large
scale subsidence over the forecast area. Large area of
surface high pressure over the central Atlantic extends
across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico...with the
ridge axis over the central Florida peninsula. This will
lead to weak boundary layer flow/boundary interactions this
afternoon. The combination of all of these factors will
inhibit convection this afternoon with very low POPs for
late July. The decreased cloud cover/convection will create
increased solar insolation which will cause daytime
temperatures to climb several degrees above normal...so have
bumped up max temps a bit over the interior this afternoon
with highs in the mid 90s. Onshore flow developing due to
the west coast sea breeze pushing slowly inland should hold
max temps near the coast to around 90 to the lower 90s.

&&


.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
UPPER AIR...24/Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn
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