Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 301928
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
328 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Tuesday)...
A weakening upper trough will be in place across the state
through the period. Weak high pressure will ridge across the area
from the Gulf of Mexico tonight and then build across the state
from the Atlantic for Tuesday. Light winds will be in place and
allow diurnal circulations to dominate the flow. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will again develop along the sea breeze boundary
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will again be in the upper 60s to
mid 70s for lows, and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Monday)... Mid and upper level
troughing over the southeastern U.S. and FL slides off to the
northeast as ridging moves in across the region by Thu...in
response to a trough/low forming over the southern plains. The
expected remains of bonnie exits to the northeast from the mid-
atlantic coast as high pressure resides across FL east to west.

for Fri-Sun...the pattern aloft of the trough/low over the plains
and the ridge over the southeast stays nearly in place as a robust
low drops in across (GFS) or just north (ECMWF) of the Great
Lakes...with troughing for the northeast CONUS. The surface high
pressure continues across FL although the axis shifts southward some
as a frontal zone sags in across the western/central Gulf coast and
the southeastern states.

Mon...the ECMWF and the GFS have been fairly consistent but now
begin to diverge. The ECMWF weakens and lifts the Great Lakes low to
the north...allowing the plains trough/low to linger there with
southwesterly flow aloft the gulf. The GFS maintains the Great Lakes
low in place and strengthens it some...picking up and absorbing the
plains trough/low...with more zonal flow over the Gulf. At the
surface both models shift the FL high pressure south...to near the
Keys...with the frontal zonal strung out along the west/central gulf
coast and southeast U.S. However the ECMWF forms a low on the TX
coast.

The atmosphere remains moist...model PWAT values run in the 1.5 to
1.8 inch range...as high pressure resides across the area with a
relaxed gradient allowing afternoon sea breezes. these factors along
with daytime heating will support showers and thunderstorms mainly
in the afternoons and evenings. Coverage is expected to be isolated
to scattered...with occasionally likely showers...and favor inland
locations. Mon is problematic with the GFS drying out some while the
ECMWF keeps the air mass moist. For now will keep the current trend
going. Temperatures will run near normal to a couple of degrees
above.

&&

.AVIATION...
Have some tempo MVFR to IFR conditions for the next few hours at
most terminals as scattered thunderstorms are developing along the
sea breeze boundary and will be pushing inland over the next few
hours. VFR will otherwise prevail through the rest of the
afternoon and conditions clear out for the overnight and Tuesday
morning periods.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will ridge across the waters through the weekend.
This will keep winds and seas light with afternoon sea breeze
circulations turning winds onshore near the coast each day. This
will also allow for a few showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  91  75  90 /  10  40  20  30
FMY  72  92  73  91 /  30  40  20  40
GIF  71  92  73  93 /  30  50  30  40
SRQ  72  89  73  88 /  10  30  10  20
BKV  67  91  68  92 /  20  40  20  30
SPG  75  89  76  90 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude



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