Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 281507
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1007 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD OVERCAST
SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
RESULTING FROM A JET INTERACTION ALOFT AND BROAD UPGLIDE ASCENT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER THAN
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH
RAIN HAS SO FAR BEEN CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
4 CORRIDOR...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT IN
NATURE.

OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO IMPACTING AREAS
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN
VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT.
AFTER DARK...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AGAIN WITH LOW END MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS SOUTH TOWARDS SARASOTA COUNTY AND
PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
HAVE ENDED WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE
NEAR SCEC LEVELS OFFSHORE. 10-15 KNOTS WILL BE THE NORM ELSEWHERE
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. NO
CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  62  77  64 /  60  30  30  20
FMY  78  66  83  65 /  60  20  30  10
GIF  72  63  80  64 /  60  40  30  20
SRQ  72  63  78  63 /  60  20  20  20
BKV  69  60  78  59 /  60  40  30  10
SPG  69  64  74  65 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON





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