Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 070135
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS REMAINED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NORTH OF IT HELPING TO DRIVE THE CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THE FLOW WAS MORE FROM THE EAST...ALBEIT RATHER
LIGHT...WHICH ALLOWED THE STORMS DEVELOP AND REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
COAST LONGER BEFORE MOVING INLAND. AT THIS TIME THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A FEW POP
UP SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF POLK COUNTY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE
LEFTOVER MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THIN AND
DISSIPATE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EXCEPT
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST WHERE THEY COULD HOLD AROUND 80. ON
TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY INTO
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DOWN INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA
AND MOVE QUICKLY INLAND. APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST TO AROUND THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD. OVERALL THE GRIDS/FORECAST ARE ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE REST OF TONIGHT IN ZONE FORECAST IN
A LITTLE BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY DURING THE LATE MORNING TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DURING
MIDWEEK A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SETUP. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THEN MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE INLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE WEST OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  77  92 /  10  50  20  50
FMY  75  93  75  93 /  10  50  20  50
GIF  75  93  74  93 /  10  50  20  50
SRQ  75  91  76  91 /  10  40  20  40
BKV  71  93  72  93 /  10  50  20  50
SPG  80  91  79  91 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE


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