Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 191417
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
917 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.DISCUSSION (Today)...
Main item of interest is the cold front...currently across northern
Fl...sliding southward. Energy with the associated upper level
trough will remain north of the state line and the front is
accompanied by a narrow swath of somewhat deeper moisture...model
PWAT values peak out in the 1.4 to 1.7 inch range. Currently
showers are across Levy County and moving into Citrus County...
these will progress southward during the rest of the day and
becomes diffuse from Tampa Bay south. Highs this afternoon will
end up near normal in the north but slightly above in the south.
Forecasts are on track overall but have made minor timing and
location adjustments mainly for the Nature Coast. But these will
have little effect in any text forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/12Z. Limited early morning BR/FG has lifted. SKC to FEW will
give way to increasing clouds...but staying in the VFR range.
Approaching front expected to reach northern terminals mid-
morning and southern ones in the afternoon with SHRA...SCT in the
north and ISOLD south. Modest southern winds shift to northerly
and become gusty with the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front is pushing into the northern waters with showers and
strong northerly winds in it/s wake. These winds will be at
caution speeds today for some of the northern zones then increase
to advisory speeds tonight for most zones. High pressure tracks
through the Gulf coast early in the week...allowing winds to
diminish Mon night or Tue.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  51  75  63 /  40   0  10  20
FMY  80  59  78  65 /  10  10  10  20
GIF  78  50  74  61 /  40   0  10  10
SRQ  77  54  76  64 /  40   0  10  30
BKV  76  45  74  58 /  50   0  10  20
SPG  76  53  74  64 /  40   0  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close


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