Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FNUS75 KGJT 301344
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SEWEL MESA...CARBONDALE RFPD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
744 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0745 MDT ON JULY 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE ARRIVES TO WESTERN COLORADO TODAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. HEATING TODAY WILL ALLOW SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE TO DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE FIRE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE A
STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE MONITORED.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD HELP WITH HUMIDITY
RECOVERY BY MORNING. CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY. WETTING RAINS IN THE AREA MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE
                    AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS 3-5 MPH SHIFTING UPVALLEY OR
                    NORTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY 1200.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400 THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 15000 FT AGL AFTER 1300.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH EARLY THEN DOWNSLOPE
                    DOWNVALLEY 4 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR AFTER SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2 THROUGH SUNSET THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......14200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1900 FT AGL.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    BY 1200 AT 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11200 FT AGL AFTER 1300.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...ROB GOODWIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160730.SEWEL.01/GJT



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