Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 180853
SWOD48
SPC AC 180852

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MS VALLEY
AND MOVE THIS FEATURE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY/DAY 4.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS SWWD INTO
THE TN VALLEY. THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES ON MONDAY/DAY 5 WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING
THE GULF COAST STATES. THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY/DAY 6...BOTH SOLUTIONS RETURN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WHILE MOVING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO THE TX GULF
COAST. THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 7 WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS.

AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
ON SUNDAY/DAY 4 IN THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST.

..BROYLES.. 09/18/2014


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