Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 060547
SWODY1
SPC AC 060545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST.

...UPPER TX GULF COAST...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU
SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS THE SABINE VALLEY AND NW GULF BY AROUND MIDDAY.
A POCKET OF -25 TO -30 DEG C 500-MB TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING A
LIMITED MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY 0.50-0.75 INCH PW VALUES MAY
SUPPORT HIGHLY ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN ARCING ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS BAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE IN THE LATE
MORNING...WITH TSTM POTENTIAL BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE THEREAFTER.

...S FL AND S ATLANTIC COAST...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
TODAY AND REACH GA/FL TONIGHT. AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND
ROBUST HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY EARLY SUN...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE GULF STREAM. WITH A PERVASIVE
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS OVER THE GULF BASIN AT
PRESENT...BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED INLAND EXCEPT OVER
PARTS OF S/E FL. BUT INITIALLY WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS UNTIL DEEPENING
OFFSHORE. FARTHER N...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE INVOF
COASTAL SC. BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY APPEAR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
A 10 PERCENT TSTM PROBABILITY ON LAND.

..GRAMS/COHEN.. 02/06/2016

$$


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