Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 261717
SWODY1
SPC AC 261715

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN NC/MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EAST/CENTRAL PA TO NORTHERN
MD/VA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF LA/MS/AL...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AND PRECEDE A COLD FRONT OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. TODAY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST REGIONS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE - CNTR/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY
THIS PERIOD AS JET STREAK NOW OVER SK CONTINUES SSE INTO MO BY 12Z
FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL ACCELERATE
ENE ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND NE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VLYS
IN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT ON E SIDE OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.

AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING THROUGH THE OH AND LWR MS
VLYS SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY ESEWD TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE
NOW OVER NRN KY MOVING ENE TO NJ BY EVE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT TO ADVANCE E/NE THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION. FARTHER S...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N CNTRL GULF
MAY CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW-LVL LIFT AS IT DEVELOPS ENE
TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/CSTL BEND.

...ERN N CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTN/EVE...
CONFLUENCE BAND/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NWD FROM THE SRN NC CST
INTO SE VA SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING GENERALLY ENE TODAY. THIS
FEATURE...COLLOCATED AS IT IS WITH A LOW-LVL THETA-E MAX AND BENEATH
PLUME OF FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS
FOR SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
DAY. WHILE LOW-LVL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY
MODEST...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN 40+ KT 850 SSWLY FLOW TO YIELD
WEAK LOW-LVL ROTATION AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SVR GUST IN ANY MORE
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS...MAINLY OVER CSTL NC.

...ERN/CNTRL PA/N CNTRL MD/N VA...
LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED THIS AFTN AS
MODERATE SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TO THE E OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. MODEST MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.75
INCHES/ WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY. BUT HEATING SHOULD FOSTER A NARROW BAND
OF SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
VISUAL SATELLITE STARTING TO SHOW CLEARING IN CNTRL PA MAY BEGIN TO
DESTABILIZE FROM WEST TO EAST.  GIVEN 35-50 KT 700-500
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL OR A STRONG GUST OR TWO MAY OCCUR.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST THIS AFTN/EVE...
AREA OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OUT AHEAD OF A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF. WHILE THE STRONGEST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IN REGION OF GREATEST PW /AOA 1.75
INCHES/ AND LOW-LVL THETA-E...SETUP MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO MOVE
NEWD INTO CNTRL MS/AL WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS AND...GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...COULD YIELD ISOLD
INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS.

..15_OWS.. 03/26/2015



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