Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 020552
SWODY1
SPC AC 020551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WI...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG GUSTS PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WI...
LOW-LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY DRIVING A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM
SWRN MN TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. NSSL-WRF...WRF-HRWS...NAM-NESTS...
AND ESRL-HRRR RUNS ALL SUGGEST A REMNANT MCV WILL DRIFT TOWARDS WI
DURING THE DAY WITH A LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS. THE BACKGROUND
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AS 1) THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS RELAX
SLIGHTLY...2) MCV ENHANCEMENT TO FLOW SHOULD BE MODEST/SPATIALLY
CONFINED...3) SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD BE AMORPHOUS...AND 4)
INSTABILITY PROGS APPEAR QUESTIONABLE GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION
HAVING DELETERIOUS EFFECTS ON DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION. STILL...IT
IS PLAUSIBLE THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE RESIDUAL MESOSCALE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COULD DEVELOP SOME TRANSIENT/WEAK LOWER-LEVEL ROTATION AMID
VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE. GIVEN PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 IN...SPORADIC
STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR AND PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH
AN ESE-MOVING CLUSTER.

..GRAMS/PICCA.. 09/02/2015




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