Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 240049
SWODY1
SPC AC 240048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
SC...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN GA TO EXTREME SOUTHERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may still impact parts of Georgia and the
Carolinas tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
weather.  This includes a possibility for a couple of tornadoes near
a frontal zone across the piedmont and coastal plain of South
Carolina.

...Southeast...

Early evening water vapor imagery depicts the center of a pronounced
upper low over the northwestern tip of AL in line with latest
short-range model guidance.  This feature will dig into GA late
tonight as strongest flow aloft has yet to round the base of the
trough.  00z soundings from JAX and CHS depict modest mid-level
lapse rates/deep-layer shear and ongoing convection supports this
being somewhat disorganized and not particularly strong.  As the
trough approaches GA/SC late tonight, shear profiles should increase
such that organized sustained updrafts will be more likely,
especially within stronger low-level warm advection where LLJ is
focused.  Will maintain SLGT risk for severe storms centered over SC
where a few tornadoes may develop if sustained supercells evolve.

..Darrow.. 04/24/2017

$$


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