Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 202002
SWODY1
SPC AC 202000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PROBABLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM WASHINGTON TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY TONIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. SMALL HAIL MIGHT ACCOMPANY A SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER NRN
CA AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH NEAR CHICAGO WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
OH VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.  WEAK BUOYANCY ACCOMPANYING THE BAND OF ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING FROM NE INDIANA ACROSS
OH.  RAPID AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC TODAY AND
THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN THE ONSHORE FLOW/POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AND
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND AS FAR S AS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
OF NRN CA.  ISOLATED STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN...WHERE ASCENT COINCIDES WITH WEAK
MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY.  ELSEWHERE...WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH NEAR THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER REGION...AND ACROSS S TX/S FL
WITHIN THE N/NE FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK TROPICAL LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.




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