Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032103 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07.5N108W TO
06.5N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N112W TO 06N131W TO BEYOND
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 91W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 97W AND101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE OF 1013 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N131W
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N131W AND EXTENDING SW
TO NEAR 25N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT
WITH A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 9 FT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. THE NW SWELL WILL SPREAD S AND E OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE
AREA N OF 22N AND W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL FRESHEN TRADES BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS
PREVAILING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BE INDUCED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO
THE AREA THU MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EXPECT BUILDING
SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...
THE FINAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF IN LATE MARCH
OR EARLY APRIL. SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT IN 1999...ONLY THREE
GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF MAY.

$$
AL



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