Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300224
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 13N115W with
an estimated minimum central pressure of 1009 mb, moving west-
northwest at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection was
noted within 240 nm of the broad center. There have been no
recent scatterometer passes over the low, however, winds are
likely still 20 kt or less with seas also less than 8 ft.
Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and this low has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation through the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been relocated further west and extends
from 10N125W to 15N125W and is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No
significant convection is associated with the tropical wave.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 08N100W to low
pressure near 13N115W to 11N124W. The ITCZ axis extends from
11N123W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
within 120 nm either side of the axis between 105W and 112W, and
within 60-90 nm either side of the axis between 130W and 135W.

Also, scattered moderate to strong convection has developed
within 90 nm of the coast of Costa Rica...El Salvador and
Nicaragua.

...DISCUSSION...

N of 15N E of 120W:

In the Gulf of California, surface troughing will linger along the
Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh southeasterly flow
will prevail in the central and northern Gulf on the east side of
this troughing, with light and variable winds across the southern
Gulf. Winds in the central and northern Gulf will diminish late
in the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes.

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, nocturnal northerly flow will pulse to
fresh through Sunday, then will increase to fresh to strong Monday
through Wednesday.

Elsewhere, A weak surface ridge extends into the area from the
northwest, partially disrupted by the remnant circulation of Frank
located well to the west. This ridging will support mainly gentle
west to northwest flow across the open Pacific waters,
occasionally pulsing to moderate just offshore of the Baja
California peninsula. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft.

S of 15N E of 120W:

In the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal drainage flow will pulse to
fresh levels tonight into early Saturday, then will increase to
fresh to strong late Saturday night into early Sunday. Weaker
winds are expected through the middle of next week as the monsoon
trough drifts slightly northward. Otherwise, light to moderate
flow is anticipated on either side of the monsoon trough.

Long-period cross-equatorial southwesterly swell with seas of 6
to 9 ft, will gradually decay through the weekend. Low pressure
is expected to develop near 09N101W late Sat with fresh winds on
the southeast side, combined with the southwesterly swell is
supporting combined seas of 8 ft. Expect these seas to linger on
the southeast side of the low as it moves to the west around 10
to 15 kt Sat into Sun.

W of 120W:

Ridging extending from northwest of the area is disrupted by the
remnant circulation of Frank. The remnant low of Frank is near
24N127W with a minimum central pressure of 1011 mb with
associated winds now 20 kt or less. Combined seas have
subsided less than 8 ft. The remnant of Georgette is has
degenerated into an open trough along 140W.

Meanwhile, northwest swells of 8 to 9 ft in the far northwest
corner of the area will subside overnight with a new set of
northerly swell seeping south of 30N late Sunday night through
the early part of next week.

$$
COBB


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