Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N130W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDING N TO 18N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 126W TO 132W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W OR WNW
AT 10 TO 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR
16N956 TO 9N95W MOVING W 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 14N
BETWEEN 96W AND 99W. WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N105W TO 9N107W MOVING W 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LOW DESCRIBED
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N119W TO 11N122W MOVING W 20 TO 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER INVERTED
TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N131W TO THE 1007 B LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES NEAR 12N130W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND IS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N84W ALONG 7N95W 9N102W 8N109W TO
10N115W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N120W THEN
RESUMES 14N123W THROUGH THE 1007 MB LOW 12N130W TO 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
45 NM OF 7N E OF 81W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 94W TO 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 89W TO 95W AND WITHIN 180 NM
S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 124W AND
BETWEEN 133W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W WITH A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW NEAR 27N134W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS OVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF
130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ITCZ. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SE ARIZONA
NEAR 33N110W WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE E
PACIFIC 22N E OF 125W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS S OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH S OF 20N ALONG 121W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS
S OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 17N103W AND GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN
101W AND 108W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS
MORNING. A 0330 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS
IN THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SEAS TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20 KT LESS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI MONRING.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N
OF 20N W OF 120W.

$$
PAW



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