Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030946
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Dec 03 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: A weak cold front is analyzed
across the central Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force
northwesterly flow currently n of 29N will further increase to
minimal gale force, with 8 to 12 ft seas, by sunrise this
morning, and continue through mid afternoon today when the
pressure gradient will begin to relax. Expect the southern
extent of strong to near gale force winds to reach along 26.5N
this afternoon. Fresh nw flow expected to the n of 27N at
sunrise on Sun, with winds then quickly diminishing on Sun and
Sun night with gentle flow forecast across the entire Gulf of
California on Mon.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends nw off the Pacific coast of Colombia
at 06N78W to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N86W, then
turns sw to 08N91W, then nw to 11N100W, then w to 11N123W, then
sw to 09N134W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms
and extends w to beyond 09N140W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted s of the
eastern segment of the monsoon trough within 60 nm of 03.5N77.5W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the
monsoon trough within 150 nm either side of a line from 13N121W
to 09N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special features section for the Gulf of California.

Moderate to fresh n winds, with combined seas of 7 to 11 ft, are
currently observed across the Pacific waters w of the Baja
Peninsula, while moderate to w to nw flow is noted elsewhere w
of 105W. The pressure gradient will gradually relax over the
next few days, with a gentle to moderate n breeze expected by
Mon, as seas subside to 5 to 8 ft in nw swell.

A surface trough extends from 21N106W to 12N106W. Isolated
moderate to strong convection is flaring within 120 nm either
side of the surface trough.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong n surge is expected to
begin late Wed night, with guidance suggesting minimal gale
conditions developing late Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal ene winds
are expected to begin again late Tue night.

Light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft,
are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough, while light to
moderate sw flow is observed to the s of the monsoon trough,
except moderate to fresh southerly breeze is forecast beyond 200
nm. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in the long-period sw swell are
through the middle of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge will meander from 32N136W to near 15N110W
through Mon, then reorientate around a surface high shifting se
into the n-central waters near 32N126W on Wed night. Fresh n to
ne flow is expected ne of the ridge through early Sun, then
moderate flow is forecast briefly on Sun night before the
gradient tightens again on Mon. Fresh to locally strong ne
trades are expected sw of the ridge through Sun, then moderate
to locally fresh flow is expected early next week. Seas of 8 ft
or greater in mixing sw and nw swell are expected elsewhere n of
the ITCZ west of 110W through the weekend, followed by a
subsiding trend during the the early to mid part of next week.

$$
Nelson


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