Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080251
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E CENTERED NEAR
15.4N 140.2W AT 08/0300 UTC OR 891 NM ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE E AND 120 NM IN THE W
SEMICIRCLES OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ALSO BETWEEN 150 NM AND
480 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WED MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE AWAY AND TO THE W OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH E OF 140W BY THU MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W-109W FROM 08N TO 16N IS MOVING W
AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A WIND SHIFT
AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION
SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N94W TO 08N100W TO
09N105W TO 05N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N
TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND
97W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 113W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N128W
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SE TO NEAR 18N112W. OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS
ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ALONG
WITH SEAS THAT ARE LESS THAN 8 FT.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS
CONTINUING TO SWEEP TO THE N-NE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS W
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD COVERING THE  MAJORITY OF THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH
THU...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF AREA IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN BY EARLY THU MORNING AS AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF THU. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8-9 FT
BY SUNRISE THU AS A RESULT OF THESE WINDS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
TO FRESH TO STRONG MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCEMENT.
RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE GULF
TOWARD THE SW-W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DEEPENS. WINDS
WILL THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THU AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASING BACK TO 20-25 KT THU EVENING AS THE TROUGHING ONCE
AGAIN DEEPENS.

$$
LEWITSKY



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