Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 136.4W AT 21/0300
UTC AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM IN THE E AND 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 14N137W TO
11N140W. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AN EASTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300
UTC MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE...240 NM IN THE SE AND 300 NM
IN THE SW QUADRANTS. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION
WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE
CENTER. LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THU THROUGH FRI. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES IS NEAR 09.5N94.5W AT 1007 MB MOVING W AT AROUND 5-10
KT WITH A TROUGH AXIS...FORMERLY A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. AN
EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG E-SE WINDS NE OF THE LOW AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS
ENERGY WILL FEED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AROUND
THE LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A
WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 09.5N94.5W TO 06N103W TO 10N115W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E
OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 93W...WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 99W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N143W
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N128W TO NEAR THE
MEXICO/CALIFORNIA BORDER NEAR 32N117W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF LOWELL. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI AS LOWELL MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS DEVELOPING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN THE NW
PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD
REMAIN SUPPRESSED JUST S OF THE EQUATOR.

$$
LEWITSKY


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