Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250901
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave was analyzed to the N of 06N near
79W. Currently scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N to 09N E of 81W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N90W to 11N120W to
09N123W. The ITCZ extends from 09N123W to beyond 07N140W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm N of the
monsoon trough E of 88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 120 nm N and 90 nm S of the monsoon
trough between 110W and 116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough
between 118W and 122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 90 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ
between 131W and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

High pressure of 1029 mb centered N of the area near 46N138W
extends a ridge se to near 19N112W. The pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure across Baja
California is producing moderate to locally fresh northwest
winds across the near and offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough
and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds
generally south of 22N and west of 120W. Several weak and
transient areas of low pressure are currently present along the
monsoon trough, and are forecast to continue along the monsoon
trough through the remainder of the week. Trade winds near these
low centers may occasionally increase to locally strong across
the northern portion of the lows, especially when convection
flares up. Seas across this trade wind zone will remain in the 5-
7 ft range through the end of the week. Over the far eastern
waters, the pressure gradient is much weaker and supporting
mainly light to gentle winds. Seas will build over the area to
near 7 ft as a SW swell propagates into the area.

Gulf of California:

Weak low pressure has developed over the far northern Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail over the far
northern Gulf of california while variable light to gentle winds
are prevail across the southern Gulf of California. The weak low
pressure will dissipate this morning with winds diminishing. A
new weak low will develop late tonight and dissipate once again
Thursday morning. Southwest to south winds across the
southeastern half of the low are expected to increase to 20 kt
again tonight, with seas building 4-5 ft.

$$
AL



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