Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Aug 30 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane is centered at 18.1N 134.4W or about 1355 statue miles e
of Hilo, Hawaii at 1500 UTC Aug 30, moving w or 270 degrees at 12 kt
around the southern periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105
kt with gusts to 130 kt. Associated convection has been fluctuating.
Currently numerous strong convection is observed within 60 NM e and
within 45 nm w of the center, surrounded by scattered moderate
isolated strong elsewhere within 90 NM e and within 120 NM w
semicircles of the center. A general weakening trend is forecast
with the center Lester forecast to cross 140W on Wed. Refer to the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC, and the latest high seas forecast under WMO
header FZPN02 KWBC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 09N84W to 13N100W
to 09N115W to 14N127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed within 180 NM either side of a line from
05N77W to 17N107W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is
noted within the area from 07N to 15N BETWEEN 107W and 127W, and
within 60 NM either side of a line from 11N130W to 11N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge is maintaining moderate NW flow with 3 to 5
ft seas across the Pacific waters along the Baja Peninsula, except
moderate to fresh nw flow, with seas 6 to 9 ft, is forecast across
the waters n of 30N through Wed night. Light and variable winds are
expected elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Mexico, with combined
seas of 3 to 6 ft primarily due to long-period cross-equatorial
swell. A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula, and
across the northern Gulf of California supporting light southerly
flow across the Gulf of California into the upcoming weekend when
moderate sw flow is forecast between 30N and 31N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds will prevail s of
the monsoon trough axis with light to gentle w to nw winds
forecast n of the trough axis. Long period cross equatorial
southwesterly swell will with combined seas of 5 to 8 ft will
begin to subside on Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Except as previously mentioned, a 1022 mb surface high is meandering
near 31N132W with a ridge extending se to near 16N123W. The high is
blocking the eastward advance of a 120 nm wide frontal trough that
extends sw from 34N130W to beyond 28N141W. An area of low pressure
could form a few hundred miles sw of the s-central coast of Mexico
later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development in 3 to 5 days as this system tracks
northwestward.

Otherwise, the ridge will extend from 32N137W to 15N110W on Thu
night as conditions associated with Lester shift w of 140W. By then
moderate to fresh ne to e flow is expected s of the ridge and n of
the monsoon trough with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, with little
change through the weekend. Moderate to fresh n to ne flow is
forecast n of the ridge, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas through the
weekend.

$$
Nelson



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