Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202101
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1850 UTC Sat Jan 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N84W to 07N95W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N95W to 07N110W to 09N120W then resumes
from 09N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between
100W and 111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted from 08N to 13N between 111W and 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds continue to diminish across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds will continue the next 24
hours, before diminishing to 20 kt or less Sunday. Looking
ahead, strong to near gale winds are expected again beginning
Monday night and prevailing through Wednesday.

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds are expected across
the central and southern portions of the Gulf Sunday evening
through Monday. These winds will then slowly diminish Monday
night through Wednesday.

Large NW swell continues to propagate SE across the waters west
of the Baja Peninsula, with seas of 8-13 ft prevailing. This
large swell is producing high surf along coasts and outer reefs
of Baja California and mainland Mexico. While seas will slowly
subside the next couple of days, they are still expected to
remain above 8 ft over this area through the middle of next
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh each night over the Gulf of
Papagayo. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to gentle offshore flow will
prevail. Gentle southerly winds will prevail S of 09N for the
next few days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1032 mb is centered just north of the area near
34N135W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting strong fresh to strong winds from 11N to 25N and west
of 125W. Large NW swell continues to propagate across the
forecast waters, with seas 12 ft or greater prevailing over much
of the forecast waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Seas 8 ft
or greater cover nearly all the the open waters N of 05N and west
of 100W. Fresh to strong trades will prevail north of the ITCZ
to around 20N for the next several days. A surface trough
embedded in the vicinity of the ITCZ along 122W is helping to
generate convection across the area mainly east of the trough
axis, discussed in the ITCZ section.

$$
AL



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