199
FXUS61 KAKQ 171600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1200 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions prevail through the early to middle part
of this afternoon, but widespread showers and a few storms
return tonight into Saturday. Showers linger Saturday night
into Sunday, especially across southern Virginia and northeast
North Carolina. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend
leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1155 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry through mid/late this afternoon, but cool with low
  clouds near the coast.

- Rain chances increase from west to east this evening into
  tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible. A flood watch
  has been issued over portions of the Piedmont.

- Showers continue Saturday with below normal high temperatures.


Sfc high pressure is centered across eastern Canada and northern
New England, ridging into the local area. Low clouds and onshore
flow are in place along the coast, and this has spread inland
over the past 1-2 hrs so the sky is now mostly cloudy for all
areas. Temperatures range from the low-mid 70s well inland, to
the low-mid 60s along the coast. High temperatures will be in
the mid/upper 70s (perhaps near 80F) well W of the Chesapeake
Bay. Closer to the water, temps will struggle to get much higher
than the upper 60s due to continued onshore flow and
cloudiness. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm across
our far western counties late this afternoon. The best chance
would across the SW after 21z/5 PM.

A southern stream shortwave will advance across the Deep South this
evening into tonight. Overrunning moisture spreads over the area
from W to E late tonight, with increasing chances for showers and
isolated storms (PWATs increase to 1.6-1.8"). The tstm potential
should be confined mainly W of I-95, removed from the cooler/less
stable marine airmass closer to the coast. Relatively mild tonight
with lows around 60F, except in the low-mid 50s on the eastern
shore. There remains some disagreement among the CAMs as to where
the highest coverage and QPF sets up. As of now, HREF probability-
matched mean QPF fields highlight the highest QPF W of I-95 and
especially in the I-64 corridor NW of RIC. Locally heavy rainfall is
likely in spots. This is also where the highest PoPs have been drawn
in. WPC has a slight ERO just NW of our wrn CWA line, with a
marginal across our W/NW counties. The axis of heavier rain may
shift eastward near and after sunrise Saturday, with some
signal for heavy rainfall also across srn portions of the area
with some elevated instability sliding through.

Weak sfc low pressure tracks just S of the area Sat afternoon. While
moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift continues over the region in
advance of the approaching upper-level system, coverage of rainfall
may be hit or miss later Saturday aftn as earlier day
rain/convection limits any aftn destabilization. Current thinking is
most of the heavier showers and storms stay to our W or SW, though
cannot rule out a few storms clipping our SW counties. High temps
Sat will remain below normal w/ the onshore flow and are in the 60s
N to 70s S. The vast majority of the QPF falls tonight through
Saturday and totals of 0.25-0.75" are expected on the eastern shore,
0.75-1.25" over the Northern Neck, 1.25-1.75" across most of central
and SE VA, and 2+" well W of I-95 and especially out towards
wrn Louisa and Fluvanna counties. After a second look at
rainfall totals and collaboration with neighboring offices to
our N and W, decided to issue a flood watch for portions of the
VA Piedmont. Some heavy rainfall and 1-3" is possible over
areas w/ low 3- and 6-hr flash flood guidance (where 3-5" of
rain fell earlier this week).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1150 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Dreary weather and additional showers are expected Sunday, but
  model trends suggest additional QPF amounts will be 0.50" or
  less. High temperatures will remain well below normal.

PWATs drop off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves
overhead, and shifts off to the SE by Sun evening. The overall
model trends suggest lower additional QPF amounts, though the
12Z/17 NAM is now slower and wetter compared to the rest of
guidance. Have trended QPF amounts down on Sunday from the
previous forecast (but did not go as dry as some of the models
given the 12Z NAM). Overall, rain chances will end from north
to south later Sun/Sun night. Even with the trend to a drier
solution for Sunday, it will still be relatively unpleasant
with some scattered light rain (highest coverage S), cloudy
skies, and highs only the 60s (perhaps around 70F across the far
N where some partial sunshine is possible late in the day).
Partly cloudy NW to mostly cloudy SE Sun night with lows in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures remain below normal Monday with mostly cloudy
  skies along the coast.

- Dry/sensible weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday with
  temperatures trending much warmer.

Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional
low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also
nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected
(breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures
below normal. The low levels may dry out some W of I-95, allowing
temperatures to warm into the 70s. Upper 60s are expected again
along the coast. The majority of the area stays dry with just a
slight chc of shower along the coast. Lows Mon night in the 50s with
some upper 40s possible well inland.

Stacked sfc and upper low meanders offshore of the Carolinas Tuesday
before finally being kicked out out to sea Wednesday and Thursday.
Dry Tuesday with warmer temps in the mid/upper 70s inland and lower
70s at the coast. The warming trend continues Wed into Thu with 80s
making a comeback. Even could see some upper 80s for some areas Thu.
There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold front
will cross the area later Thursday afternoon. Will have a chc of
showers and storms over most of the area. A little cooler behind the
front to end the week. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Tue night
and 60s for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Low pressure offshore is advecting a marine airmass towards the
region early this morning. CIGs at SBY and ORF have been
oscillating between MVFR and IFR, with MVFR at PHF. ECG recently
went SCT but MVFR may return for a few hrs this morning. MVFR
CIGs persist through late morning at the coast, then mainly VFR
by this afternoon with E-NE 5-10 kt winds. Scattered to
numerous rain showers move in from the W after 00z Sat. Flight
restrictions are likely in both CIGs and VSBY, with heavy rain
possible.

Outlook: A slow moving low pressure system will bring showers,
a chance of thunderstorms, and degraded flight conditions
Saturday, with at least a chance for showers (and flight
restrictions likely) Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Lingering SCA conditions from waves 4-6 ft over the northern
coastal waters today.

- Increasing NE wind and waves for the weekend. Small craft advisory
conditions are expected once again for the entire marine area. Wind
gusts to 20 to 25 kt and seas building to 4 to 7 feet.

Weak high pressure is centered inland of the Mid-Atlantic coast
early this morning, with low pressure well offshore. A boundary has
dropped S along the coast this morning, which resulted in a NE wind
of 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt N of Parramore Is., where seas have
also built to 4-6ft. SCAs are in effect through 7 AM N of Parramore
Is., and through 7 PM N of Chincoteague. Elsewhere, the wind is
generally NE at or below 15kt, with seas 3-4ft S of Parramore Is.,
and waves in the Bay mainly ~2ft. Low pressure tracks farther away
from the coast today as another weak low pressure system slowly
approaches from the W tonight into Saturday. Meanwhile, high
pressure will remain nearly stationary over New England. The wind
will remain NE today and diminish to 5-10kt by later this aftn,
before becoming E to SE 5-10kt tonight, then E 10-15kt Saturday.
Seas will mainly be 3-4ft tonight into Saturday.

Low pressure becomes more organized off the Carolina coast Saturday
night into Sunday, before very slowly pulling away from the coast
through Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the
N. A NE wind is expected to range from 15-20kt (strongest for the
lower Bay and ocean) with seas building to 4-5ft N and 5-6ft S and 3-
5ft waves in the mouth of the Bay. SCAs are likely during this time
period for the lower Bay/ocean, with less confidence of SCA
conditions elsewhere. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic
coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the
Southeast coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1130 AM EDT Friday...

Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Meherrin River near
Lawrenceville and Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor
flooding. Levels at Lawrenceville and Stony Creek are expected
to crest today. See FLSAKQ for additional information.

While uncertainty remains with respect to rainfall amounts and
exact placement over the weekend, median expected amounts have
dropped off more into the 1.00-1.50" range across area basins
over the weekend. This still may be enough to lead to additional
flooding concerns this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for VAZ048-060-061-066>068-509.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SW
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AJB/SW
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...AKQ