National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211439
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1039 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Carolina coast will intensify while
tracking track northeast and out to sea later today through
tonight. High pressure will build over the area for later
Monday through Tuesday morning, then slides off the coast by
Tuesday evening. A cold front will swing across the region on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Sunday...

The latest WX analysis indicates an elongated area of sfc low
pressure (~1012mb) now centered from near the GA coast to just
off the southern NC coast. CAD setup is is place with ~1020mb
sfc high pressure across northern VA (really a piece of the
stronger sfc high centered well out to the west across the
plains states). Either way, this has led to decent frontogenesis
across the local area, bringing the rain shield well to the
north this morning. QPF amounts have been relatively light
(mostly ~0.10" or less) given a large T/Td spread over central
and south central VA with much of the precip going to column
cooling/wet bulbing. As a result, temperatures that had been in
the low 50s this morning have dropped into the mid-upper 40s
across central and south central VA, with 50s in place farther
to the SE.

For the aftn, as the sfc high pressure to our N weakens and the
sfc low deepens along/off the Carolina coast, expect the rain
to become more widespread (and of somewhat higher intensity)
over SE VA and NE NC, while areas to the NW see little if any
additional QPF. For event totals, expect 0.50"+ over far SE VA
and NE NC, with 0.10"-0.20 over metro RIC, tapered to a T to a
few hundredths over the far northern tier. Aftn PoPs will range
from 80-100% over the S/SE, to 20-40% across N (with PoPs there
dropping off to 10% or less after 21Z). Highs have already
occurred in the SE, with readings likely falling into the upper
40s to lower 50s by mid`late aftn. For central and south central
VA, temperatures will tend to be nearly steady in the mid to
upper 40s through mid aftn, then rise into the low-mid 50s late
as the rain comes to an end, with mixing helping raise the
temperatures (portions of the far N may see a jump into the
upper 50s).

By this evening, chc to low end likely PoPs linger across the
far SE, with dry conditions and gradual clearing elsewhere. With
dry air in the low levels moving in from the NW overnight (dew
pts falling into the lower 30s NW), expect lows to reach down
into the mid 30s for the NW zones, with mainly upper 30s to
lower 40s for most of the rest of the local area (and in the
mid 40s near the coast in SE VA and NE NC). Patchy frost is
unlikely with the exception of the far NW.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Sunday...

The models depict ~1025mb sfc high pressure centered from the
Lower MS Valley to the lower OH Valley on Mon, ridging E into
the local area. Aloft, a weak trough will be in place, but the
sky should be sunny or mostly sunny across the local area (with
a bit more cloud cover across the far SE). Highs on Mon will be
warmer than today, but still 5-10F below avg for late April,
ranging from the lower 60s near the coast, to the mid to upper
60s well inland. With low dew pts continuing and sfc high
pressure becoming centered over the local area Mon night,
expect a clear sky, light winds, and good radiational cooling
conditions. Forecast lows are in the mid to upper 30s over much
of the CWA, with lower to mid 40s near the coast. At least
patchy frost will be possible over much of the CWA. Turning
warmer on the backside of the sfc high for Tue, with a light
southerly flow by aftn. Mainly sunny with highs in the lower
70s inland, and in the mid to upper 60s at the coast. Increasing
clouds Tue night in advance of another cold front. Lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Sunday...

The system/cold front on Wed will be northern stream, with low
level flow turning westerly rather quickly. As such, moisture
will be limited, and PoPs will only be 15-30% N and 15% or less
over the S. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. Another
fairly strong high pressure system is progged to build in from
the Great Lakes Thu into Fri. Mostly sunny on Thu with highs
ranging through the 60s. Clear or mostly clear Thu night with
lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. The high will slide
off to the NE or E during Fri. Partly to mostly sunny on Fri
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Partly to mostly cloudy
Fri night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. There could
be isolated showers across the N by Sat morning. There will be
at least a low chc for showers on Sat, as the next system lifts
ENE through the Great Lakes/upper midwest. PoPs are only 20-30%
for now with highs Sat in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Sunday...

Mainly VFR CIGs (isolated MVFR CIGs) will prevail at the TAF
sites through the remainder of the morning, with NE winds 5-10kt
inland, and ~15kt with gusts to 20-25kt near the coast in SE VA
and NE NC. Flight restrictions become likely in the aftn, to
MVFR at RIC, and to IFR at ECG/ORF/PHF. SBY will mostly be VFR
(maybe briefly MVFR) even if there is some light rain.
Conditions will improve to VFR from NW to SE later this evening
and overnight, as the rain and low pressure area push well ESE
of the region.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail Mon-Tue, and probably for
most of Wed as well.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1015 AM EDT Sunday...

SCAs have been extended in time across the lower Bay (into this
evening) and the coastal waters (through Monday morning).

Previous Discussion...

Latest analysis shows sfc cold front now stalled offshore of
the coastal Carolinas, extending SW across the gulf coast. WV
satellite imagery showing developing sfc low pressure developing
offshore of Cape Fear, with this system expected to slowly lift
NE along the NC coast today into this evening. Meanwhile,
1020+mb sfc high pressure continues to build to our W/NW early
this morning. Aloft, flow is largely zonal early this morning,
though a shortwave currently over the northern and central
plains will carve out an east coast trough over the eastern
third of the country later today through Monday night.

Tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure to
the south and high pressure to the west is resulting in a
decent surge of cool air advection early this morning. Latest
Obs showing NNW winds ~20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt over the
lower and middle bay. Have added SCA over coastal waters from
Parramore Island southward, with SCA over the Bay and lower
James River through late this morning north/early afternoon
south.

Previously referenced low pressure moves off the Carolinas
slides offshore of the NC coast this evening, with the front
lingering offshore into midweek. This supports a persistent NE
flow and building seas. Would not be surprised to eventually
need another SCA over southern coastal waters south of the VA/NC
border Monday afternoon and night, but with an SCA already in
place, will keep seas ~ 4 ft for now. Conditions improve later
Tue through midweek, as the low and frontal zone edge farther
offshore and high pressure builds over the region ahead of
another weaker frontal passage by mid-late week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ632>634-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RHR