390
FXUS64 KBMX 120605
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
105 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 828 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

No major changes were needed in the forecast for the remainder of
the night through tomorrow. Only made a few minor changes for
increasing rain chances late tomorrow in the southwest with our
next round of rain/storms.

25/Owen

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

High pressure will move across the southern states today and
tonight with prevailing northerly flow bringing cool and dry air
to the state. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below
normal this time of year with highs today in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s. By Sunday
morning, the high will be weakening and moving east of the area
with flow returning to out of the south and south west. Moisture
and warmer air will will return to the state with high clouds
increasing through late Sunday. Highs on Sunday are expected to be
near normal and a couple of degrees warmer than today in the low
80s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

A rather active period of weather will occur during the upcoming
week. An upper level warm front will lift northward across Alabama
Sunday night. A west to east band of showers will develop between
I-85 and I-65 late Sunday night and lift northward. Rainfall
amounts will remain light initially due to drier air below 850mb.
Scattered to numerous showers will develop on Monday as broad
scale lift overspreads the area. A few storms possible across
south Alabama as a surface based warm front lifts northward. A
stronger low level jet develops Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Models differ considerably on timing and placement of heavier
rainfall during the Monday/Tuesday time frame. The NAM/GFS models
develop a cluster of convection Monday night across southeast
Texas and southwest Louisiana and track it across south Alabama
Tuesday morning, while the ECMWF/Canadian models have an impulse
moving across south Alabama Monday morning with another impulse on
Tuesday closer to the Gulf Coast. If the system on Monday
verifies, this may keep better instability closer to the coast and
the GFS/NAM solution may be overdone for Tuesday. For this reason
will not highlight any severe or flooding threat at this time,
but certainly some potential exists for active storms. There
should be break in the rain on Wednesday before another system
impacts Alabama in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024

Surface high pressure remains over the area today, with VFR
conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be light
and variable to start the period increasing to 5kts by this
afternoon. An increase in high clouds is expected. Rain chances
will increase just beyond this forecast cycle.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions continue through the weekend, as drier air
remains over the area. Tonight, max RH values will be above 85
percent. Light and variable 20ft winds are expected Sunday as high
pressure moves across the area. Min RH values Sunday afternoon
will range from 30 to 35 percent northeast counties to 40 to 45
southwest counties. Rain will move into area Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  56  71  61 /   0  30  80  80
Anniston    80  58  72  63 /   0  30  90  80
Birmingham  81  61  72  65 /  10  40  90  70
Tuscaloosa  82  62  74  66 /  10  50  90  70
Calera      81  62  73  65 /  10  40  90  80
Auburn      80  63  76  66 /  10  20  80  80
Montgomery  83  63  76  66 /  10  30  90  80
Troy        83  62  78  66 /  10  20  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...14