Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261603
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
903 AM MST Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cold and unsettled weather, with periods of rain and
snow will persist today. Dry and warmer weather returns Wednesday
through Saturday with increasing winds. Winter weather potentially
makes a return late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Overnight disturbance is moving east this AM, leaving
ample clear skies behind it, excluding along the Mogollon Rim.
This clearing is going to allow for growing instability this AM
and early afternoon. With widespread growing instability, POPs and
thunder chances were adjusted and made more widespread across the
CWA. CAMs continue to hit on the most aggressive activity forming
directly along the Mogollon Rim, forming a boundary, and diving
south this afternoon into evening. WHile rain and snow is
expected, a similar trend to yesterday is also expected with ample
graupel falling this afternoon with freezing levels so low and the
combined instability.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /426 AM MST/...Deep troughing covers much of the
central and western United States this morning. Northern Arizona
is in cold and moist northwesterly flow aloft on the west side of
this trough. A disturbance in this flow moving eastward through
the region this morning has made for a more active night than was
anticipated, with scattered rain and snow showers over most areas
south of a Grand Canyon to Window Rock line. Snow levels are
around 5500 feet, with some spotty accumulation above 6000-6500
feet overnight. One area that has experienced persistent snow
showers has been the I-17 corridor from Kachina Village to just
south of Munds Park where slow travel is reported. Later this
morning, the main area of showers associated with the disturbance
should push into southern Navajo/Apache and eastern Gila counties.
Convective instability will then increase from mid day through
early evening, with another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms from I-40 southward and isolated activity to the
north. Any heavier showers or thunderstorms will be capable of
gusty winds and small hail, with graupel/snow above about 6000
feet. There remains a potential for localized poor driving
conditions with these heavier showers as roads could become
quickly covered in hail/graupel/snow - so keep that in mind if
you`re driving in the high country today.

Wednesday through Friday - the trough moves east of the region
with the next low pressure system lurking off the west coast.
Northern Arizona will be between systems during this time, with
mostly clear skies and daytime temperatures gradually warming
back close to normal for late March. Breezes will pick up by
Thursday with gusts 25-35 mph and 30-45 mph Friday as the Pacific
low nudges closer.

Saturday through Monday - the low gradually moves into Arizona,
but there remains a large amount of model spread in timing and
strength which makes for low confidence regarding the specifics of
precipitation impacts. There has been a trend over the past couple
of days to slow down the arrival, and this continues this morning.
Nearly all of the guidance keeps the area dry through at least
Saturday afternoon with strong winds developing. As of now, the
best chances of more significant precipitation are on Sunday and
Monday. Snow levels will depend on the strength of the system as
it moves through, but will likely be down to at least 6000 feet.
Stay tuned over the next few days as we get a better handle on the
weather details and possible impacts on travel.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 26/12Z through Wednesday 27/12Z...Periods of
MVFR/IFR possible in SHRA/SHSN through 03Z, with conditions
improving thereafter. NW-SW winds 10-20 kts, subsiding to 5-10
kts after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 27/12Z through Friday 29/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds light and variable on Wednesday, becoming SW 10-20 kts on
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Scattered rain and snow
showers with embedded storms develop again today, with drier and
warmer conditions expected for Wednesday. West/northwest winds 15-25
mph, becoming west/southwest around 10 mph on Wednesday

Thursday through Saturday...Warm and dry conditions are expected
through Saturday, before isolated showers returning Saturday night.
Breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph on Thursday, with stronger winds
Friday and Saturday gusting 30-40 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR/JJ
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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