580
FXUS65 KFGZ 092054
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
155 PM MST Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect very warm temperatures through Thursday, with
slight cooling into the weekend and next week. Storm coverage will
remain isolated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge centered over east-central Arizona
will slide westward and then flatten a bit over the next few days.
Daytime temperatures are likely peaking today, but will be close
tomorrow and still above average heading into the weekend. This
ridge is almost too warm for convection, with some capping noted on
the soundings this morning. Additionally, the ridge positioning and
streamlines do not favor moisture advection into Arizona.

What this all means is that warm temperatures will stick around and
thunderstorms will be hard to come by for at least the next several
days, maybe even the entire forecast period. Mainly isolated storm
coverage will be the rule heading into the weekend, we`ll see of any
of this orientation changes by next week, but looking bleak for now.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 09/18Z through Thursday 10/18Z...VFR
conditions expected. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW line
between 19Z-02Z. Winds are W 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts this
afternoon, becoming light and VRB overnight. Gusty/erratic winds
possible near storm.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 10/18Z through Saturday 12/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along and south of a KSOW-KSJN
line Thursday and Friday afternoon. Winds are SW-W 10-20 kts,
gusting 25-35 kts on Thursday, then 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts
on Friday. Winds are light and VRB during the overnight periods.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Hot and dry conditions.
Minimum RH values between 5-20% each afternoon. Breezy winds on
Thursday, out of the west at 15-20 mph gusting to 35 mph. Localized
critical fire weather possible, especially in the Little Colorado
River Valley where the highest winds are expected. Winds are a bit
calmer on Friday, becoming SW-W 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Slight
chance for isolated showers/thunderstorms in the White Mountains
each afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...Hot, with increasing chances for
showers/thunderstorms across the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
Minimum RH 10-20%, with daytime highs a few degrees above normal
each afternoon. Winds are generally west 10-20 mph each afternoon,
but gusty/erratic winds possible near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ018-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff