855
FXUS63 KGID 240600
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front has made its way through all but extreme SE
  portions of the forecast area...ushering in more clouds,
  northerly (lighter) winds, and notably cooler temperatures.

- This front will continue to be the focus of thunderstorm
  development this afternoon and evening. Some storms will have
  the potential to be strong to severe...with damaging winds,
  heavy rainfall, and large hail the primary threats.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through
  Thursday, mainly favoring the late day-evening-overnight
  hours...with a drier trend later in the week. Highs Tue-Thu
  are mainly in the 80s-low 90s, warming into the mid-upper 90s
  by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025


Currently through tonight...

Upper air and satellite data continuing to show southwesterly
flow in place across the region this afternoon...set up
between high pressure/ridging anchored over the eastern CONUS
and a couple of areas of low pressure/connecting troughing
extending from western Canada down into Srn CA. An additional
mid-upper shortwave disturbance is making its way across central
Canada/Nrn Plains...which has been the driving force behind a
surface cold front that has gradually pushed south across the
forecast area today. It`s made pretty good progress, but has
slowed a bit, with gusty southerly winds and temps near 90 in
our far SE.

Behind the front, low level stratus has been stubborn through
the day, and along with the cooler air mass, some spots have
struggled to get out of the 60s. Seeing a few more breaks in the
cloud cover, so there will be spots with late day highs...with
much of south central NE pushing to reach into the lower 70s.
There has also been a fairly persistent SW-NE swath of
isolated/scattered showers through the day...tied more to
frontal boundary/lift off the surface.

Along and ahead of the front, with less cloud cover, have had
little trouble rising into the 80s to near 90...but here a
mid-afternoon those near-90 temps are confined to parts of
Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne and Rooks counties in KS. As expected,
scattered thunderstorms have developed along the sfc frontal
boundary...a trend expected to continue the rest of today. SPC
meso page showing MLCAPE values 1500-2500 j/kg along/ahead of
the front...but deeper layer shear is lacking, and lapse rates
could be better. So far, storms have strengthened quickly, but
have struggled to maintain that.

Main focus the rest of this afternoon/evening will be along that
frontal boundary, any storms there will still have the the
potential to be strong-severe...damaging winds and heavy rain
looking to be more of an threat than large hail. With time later
this evening/tonight, the surface front sinks south of the
forecast area, perhaps not by much...and the potential for at
least scattered elevated/post frontal activity spreading across
the forecast area. This activity is not expected to be
severe...but the environment supports efficient rain-makers, so
will have to be monitoring any areas that have storms train over
them.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Through the mid-week period...models remain in good agreement in
the broad picture...showing little change in the upper level
pattern at least for Tue-Wed. Upper level flow through Wednesday
remains well- amplified, southwesterly across the Central
Plains...with potential for a couple of shortwave disturbances
to pass through the region. As we get into Thursday, models
showing that eastern CONUS ridging starting to weaken thanks in
part to that latest disturbance working through the Plains and
around the northern edge of that ridging.

For Tuesday...the trend the past few models runs have been to
tone down the precipitation potential across the area, showing
us between the departing wave today/tonight and the next that
will be approaching later in the day Tuesday. Did trend forecast
chances down quite a bit for much of the daytime hours...if
models continue this trend, further downward adjustment would be
reasonable. At the surface, the day looks to start out with an
overall weak pattern, as today`s cold front stalls/loses it`s
upper level push, and winds may be somewhat variable in
direction. During the rest of the day, sfc low pressure deepens
over the High Plains ahead of that next approaching upper wave,
pulling a warm frontal boundary north...with some uncertainty
with just how far north through our area it gets. Can`t rule out
some scattered storms near that boundary, but models focus
better storm chances further west along the High Plains...and
our best chances for preciptiation may be tied to that activity
evolving into a complex and moving in during the
evening/overnight hours. MLCAPE values climbing over 2000 j/kg
are not out of the question by mid-late afternoon...but once
again upper level flow and deeper layer shear is on the weaker
side. With that and the uncertainty with coverage...our forecast
remains in the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area. Heavy rain remains
a concern along with the wind/hail threat.

Hard to have a ton of confidence the further out in time you go,
with how things playing out tonight through Tuesday potentially
affecting Wednesday. It may end up being similar to Tuesday, in
that at least a chunk/if not much of the daytime hours being on
the relatively quiet side...in between disturbances. The better
chances looking to favor the late evening-overnight hours
and...awaiting activity to move in from the west. This latest
disturbance makes its main push through the region
Thursday...and do have PoPs lingering mainly across the eastern
forecast area event into Thursday evening. Potential remains for
some strong-severe storms on Wed-Wednesday, SPC Day 3 Marginal
Risk continues to include areas mainly along/north of the NE/KS
state line.

Friday and on...

In the wake of that last mid-week upper level disturbance,
models remain in good agreement in the big picture for the end
of the week on through the weekend. In the upper levels,
expecting more generally zonal flow to develop across the
region, with broad high pressure spread across the southern
CONUS. Though as a whole the forecast is drier than prior to
Friday, this type of pattern will keep the potential for
periodic shortwave disturbances to pass through the region...and
current trends point toward Sun-Sun night having the best
precip chances of this extended period. Overall winds not
looking to be excessive at any point, but it`s also hard to have
a high degree of confidence in those finer details (like
timing/direction) this far out. As far as temperatures go, not
looking to be any significant swings either way...highs inch
back up into the mid 90s-near 100 for Saturday, with Sunday`s
disturbance front ushering more 80s for the start of the new
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: IFR to LIFR CIGs this morning.

Ongoing MVFR CIGs are forecast to dip lower to IFR over the
next few hours, and perhaps even make a run into LIFR territory
around sunrise for a few hours. With the LIFR CIGs could also
come MVFR VSBYs. Can`t rule out an hour or two of IFR VSBYs.
High sun angle should allow for some gradual improvement mid to
late AM - returning to MVFR by around 16-18Z.

Have VFR CIGs for late afternoon into Tue eve, but this is
lower confidence as some guidance just continues the MVFR CIGs.
Various hi-res models develop iso-scat convection at some point
in the region late afternoon into early evening, but disagree on
specific coverage and timing. Thus, will broad brush the
21Z-06Z time frame with PROB30s, for now. Winds will be
relatively light through the period, veering from NNE now, to E
by around midday, to SErly this evening and overnight.
Confidence: CIGs/wind - medium to high, VSBYs - medium, TSRA
details: low.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies