Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
653 FXUS62 KILM 131731 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 131 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will generally prevail although a front could near mid week bringing a bit better rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly weak weather features impacting the area during the near term period. Isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon and evening, showers and storms, will develop on features like the sea breeze, a weak surface trough inland, and storm outflows through Monday. Highs away from the beaches will be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak flow through the entire column through the period, fairly typical for July. The Piedmont trough and seabreeze will be the two main rainmakers, and with very slow and erratic storm motion POPs will be fairly uniform across the region, but with an earlier starting time at the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Bermuda high and Piedmont trough will continue to be weather map fixtures for the foreseeable future. The high moisture content will keep nighttime lows elevated well above seasonable norms while daytime highs will only tend a few degrees above climatology. Each day will have a muggy but rain-free night while thunderstorm coverage each afternoon will be solidly in the chance range. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fog should burn off by the start of the TAF period. The sea breeze will bring scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms with restrictions near-MVFR CIGs, MVFR to IFR VSBYs, and gusty winds. Still thinking we`ll deal with fog tonight so have added some of it to the TAFs. IFR is possible, but confidence was too low to include that. Wouldn`t be surprised if VSBYs went down for tonight though with further TAF updates. Worst conditions expected inland. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Monday...expect S to SE winds of 10 KT or less with seas invof 2 ft. Early in the period the Bermuda high will be displaced to the east some. Locally this means a weaker pressure gradient and fairly tame winds. With most of the high-induced swells remaining well offshore that leaves behind only the small wind-driven wave set. A gradual westward return of the center of the high will add a category back to wind speed by the midweek period. Seas will respond by growing by about a foot. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...31 NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...31 MARINE...