742
FXUS61 KILN 091800
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
200 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low moving east and away from Ohio this evening will
trail a cold front south through the CWA tonight in its wake.
A brief period of high pressure will build on Friday, then get
shunted to the southeast ahead of a surface low moving east
through southern Michigan. A trailing cold front will bring one
more threat of shower activity overnight and early Saturday,
with a dry period then expected to last through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A well defined stationary front bisecting Ohio and CWA from w-e
will keep a cool northeast wind in the north, and a milder
southwest wind in the south. Front is currently located along or
a bit north of I-70 in the CWA. This boundary leads to a large
high temperature range from near 60 in the north to the upper
70s along and south of the Ohio River.

Showers are beginning to become more active across the CWA, with
some lightning noted in north central IN, likely given a boost
by s/w activity in mean westerly flow. This should maintain as
it moves into west central Ohio, but be generally benign with
regards to storm structure and strength.

In central Ohio, cells noted over eastern Franklin County are
becoming stronger with a deep core of heavy precip. Some
lightning activity is likely to develop here, but should only
affect Licking/Fairfield counties over the next hour or two.

Warm air being pulled in on the south side of the front will
continue to pull in moisture and aide in the development of
pockets of convection, some of which could become strong enough
to support lightning and potentially damaging wind if cores
collapse. Did not feel confident in differentiating the deeper
convection associated with thunderstorms and areas not in an
overly favorable environment for this. Kept thunder mention for
entire CWA this afternoon, calming it down later this evening
and exiting to the east in central Ohio towards midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low and cold front will exit the region early in the
evening taking any storms with it. There could be some lingering
showers with cold air advection, but these will diminish
overnight.

A positively tilted mid level trough will cross the region on
Friday. So although surface high pressure will be nudging in,
with the colder air aloft, cannot rule out some diurnal showers.

It will be cooler. Lows will be closer to normal but highs on
Friday will be several degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fast moving low pressure will bring the likelihood for showers along
with isolated thunderstorms beginning late Friday night and
continuing through Saturday. Winds may gust close to 30 knots
Saturday afternoon as the system pushes across the Great Lakes. A
ridge of high pressure will provide tranquil weather on Sunday. The
threat for showers and thunderstorms returns Monday and Tuesday when
an east-west oriented boundary sags south from the Great Lakes.
Showers and thunderstorms become likely on Wednesday when low
pressure is forecast to track along the boundary, bringing a large
area of moisture and lift to the Ohio Valley.

Cooler than normal high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the 40s
are forecast for Saturday under below average geopotential heights
and a northwest low level flow. Highs are expected to rise back into
the 70s for the rest of the period as a west to southwest flow
brings normal to slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather this afternoon and early evening will end later
in the evening, by midnight for most of the CWA. West-east
stationary front just north of a DAY-CMH line is a well defined
boundary at the surface with northeast wind to the north and
south-southwest wind to it`s south.

Activity is increasing this afternoon but confidence in deep
convection associated with thunderstorms was lacking, with the
possible exception of DAY in the afternoon. Will maintain an
active weather watch and amend forecast when/if thunder activity
becomes more likely or a deeper storm develops upstream from any
of the terminals.

Front passes south tonight and winds switch to the north. Cold
advection will lower cigs AOB 1kft area-wide that should lift
near or shortly after daybreak into MVFR, reaching VFR and
scattering somewhat in the afternoon and clearing by evening.

VSBYS will drop in shower/thunderstorm activity but should not
drop overnight with a decent north wind maintaining at 8-12kt.

OUTLOOK...showers with MVFR cigs/vsbys are expected later Friday
night into early Saturday, focused in the north nearer DAY/CMH.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Franks