431
FXUS64 KLCH 092339
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
639 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Haze continues to shroud the area on southerly winds which brought
remnant smoke from Mexico into the region. Expect this haze to
stick around through the evening and overnight - at the very
least, should make for a very pretty sunset!

The bigger talking point in the short term forecast is the arrival
of a cold front and associated showers/thunderstorms to the
region. Last update, the expectation was for convection to remain
in north-central Louisiana. However, latest CAMs suites are
bringing thunderstorms into south-central Louisiana with a more
southerly trend to boot. The expectation now is for several
clusters of showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold
front which will surge east and southeast into our northern zones.
DCAPE and shear profiles will support strong downbursting wind
segments which could produce isolated tornadoes. Lapse rates and
CAPE will also support healthy updrafts and large hail. The
question is whether or not these segments will end up in our area;
forecaster confidence has lowered in regard to placement of
storms, thus PoPs were increased down towards HWY 190 with the
best chance on a Hardin to Beauregard to Evangeline line and
north.

The long and short of it: All hazards are possible with storms,
especially strong winds and large hail. Tornadoes cannot be ruled
out. This is a late night event, so we are cautioning folks to
have multiple means of receiving emergency alerts.

The concern for flooding rains also continues, especially for
areas in the Hardin, Beauregard to Evangeline line and north. This
is the best area for shower and thunderstorms which may produce
heavy downpours. In the event of training rainfall and/or heavy
downpours, there could be some flash flood risk. Most convection
should be pretty progressive, so the chance of this is low, but
not zero. Those concerned parties should continue to monitor radar
trends and forecasts tonight.

Cold front moves through overnight tonight into tomorrow morning
bringing about much cooler and drier air. This will also wash the
haze (and mosquitos) out into the Gulf! High pressure and dry air
will keep the remainder of the short term cool and dry.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Rain chances return to the forecast as we begin the long-term as a
shortwave is progged to cut off over the srn Rockies, while sfc high
pressure pushes east of the forecast area and ushers in a moister
srly flow off the Gulf. With forecast soundings indicating mean RH
values rising to around 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to
around 1.9 inches (well above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding
climo), scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop through the day Sunday and linger through Monday night
before the shortwave ejects ewd, dragging a cold front through the
area. With the potential for heavy rains during this period, WPC is
highlighting much of the forecast area in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall both Sunday and Monday, with the remainder of the
area is generally in a marginal risk.

By Tuesday, the sfc boundary is progged to wash out east of the area
with a return flow off the Gulf re-establishing itself quickly.
Along with weak/nil capping and daytime heating, there is the
potential for a few showers/storms during the day

The remainder of the forecast period will see a gradual increase in
POPs as another disturbance/sfc front are forecast to pass the area,
along with increasing moisture.

Below normal temps to start the long-term period will gradually warm
through the period with temps jumping back to the mid/upper 80s for
highs with mins back to mid/upper 60s.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

In the immediate forecast period, the main issue is MVFR
conditions from a mix of low clouds, and haze/smoke from Mexican
agricultural burns. These low clouds will continue to increase
with a majority of the terminals lowering to potential IFR
conditions from the low clouds and mix of patchy fog/smoke/haze
through the evening hours.

By 10/05z, attention will turn to the expected MCS over Texas
heading toward the forecast area. At this point, the one terminal
that has the greatest potential to experience this feature is
KAEX. Will mention Tempo ground from 10/05-07z for thunderstorms
with gusty winds and low visibility from heavy rainfall.

A cold front will be moving in behind the thunderstorm complex
with winds becoming from the north between 10/08-12z. Drier air
will then filter in with the north winds allowing for VFR
conditions by late morning.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 4 feet
will prevail into tonight. Areas of fog and haze are likely to
reduce visibilities, however, dense fog criteria is not
anticipated.

A cold front will push through the coastal waters late tonight
into Friday morning, accompanied by isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Offshore flow along with elevated seas will
develop behind the front Friday and Saturday. Onshore flow becomes
reestablished Sunday as high pressure slides east of the area.
Precipitation chances will also increase again Sunday and Monday
as a series of upper level disturbances move across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  85  61  82 /  60  10  10   0
LCH  72  88  65  84 /  20   0  10   0
LFT  75  90  66  86 /  30  10  10   0
BPT  72  90  67  85 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...07