Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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391 FXUS64 KLZK 111723 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1223 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Dry conditions are expected across the state today as H500 NW flow will remain in place atop sfc ridging. Temps will be a bit above seasonal average along with Td values in the mainly in the 50s F. Sky conditions will remain mostly clear initially with mid/high level clouds expected to increase throughout the day. Changes are expected on Sunday as the flow aloft will shift out of the SW ahead of a mid-level cyclone moving east across the Central/Southern Plains. At the sfc, ridging will begin to shift eastward which will allow low level flow will out of the S with dewpoints on the rise. A developing sfc low with advancing warm front and trailing cold front will approach the state from the west. Several pieces of shortwave energy will traverse the SW flow toward the state. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and overspread the area from SW to NE Sun-Sun night. A plume of PW values in excess of 1.50" is expected to lift north into southern parts of the state Sunday night. When combined with an expected increase in the LLJ across similar areas, there is some concern for locally heavy rain to occur. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 MONDAY/TUESDAY: An unsettled weather pattern will occupy much of the workweek across the Natural State. Beginning the workweek, an upper lvl closed low develops into a positively tilted trof that approaches the Natural State. In cohesion with the upper lvl feature, a sfc low pressure system with a lifting warm front and trailing cold front will be nearing the state on Monday and moving across the state during the day on Tuesday. Expect rain and isolated thunderstorms during this period of Monday and Tuesday with several opportunities for rainfall across the state. WEDNESDAY: An upper lvl ridge builds over the Natural State during the day on Wednesday as a sfc high pressure center meander across the region providing most of the state one day of relief from showers and thunderstorms. Expect dry conditions for most of the state as Arkansas will be perfectly placed between two low pressure systems: one departing the region and another moving toward the state from the west. THURSDAY/FRIDAY: An upper lvl positively tilted trof approaches the state in tandem with the combination of sfc features in the form of a warm front draped across the Gulf Coast of the Deep South region of the CONUS and a low pressure center with a cold front moves near the state from the northwest which will move across the state during the day on Friday. Expect the return of shower and thunderstorm chances to bring an end to the workweek. In terms of temperatures over the long-term forecast period with respect to both daily low and high temperatures, expect near average to slightly above average temperatures compared to climatological normals for this time of the year. At the current time, the threat of severe weather is low, but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible during the unsettled stretch during the week. Stay tuned to future forecast discussions as we continue to nail down specifics. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 For the 18Z TAFs... VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds throughout the day today will become light and southeasterly tomorrow. Also tomorrow, a cirrus deck is expected over much of the state. No threat to VFR conditions is expected through tomorrow afternoon. Cavanaugh && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 58 82 62 76 / 0 10 50 90 Camden AR 61 77 62 79 / 10 20 70 70 Harrison AR 55 78 58 74 / 0 20 70 90 Hot Springs AR 61 79 61 78 / 0 10 80 70 Little Rock AR 63 82 64 78 / 0 10 70 80 Monticello AR 64 81 64 80 / 0 10 70 80 Mount Ida AR 60 78 61 78 / 10 20 80 80 Mountain Home AR 54 80 59 74 / 0 10 60 90 Newport AR 59 82 63 76 / 0 10 50 80 Pine Bluff AR 62 81 63 79 / 0 10 70 80 Russellville AR 59 81 61 77 / 0 10 70 80 Searcy AR 59 81 61 76 / 0 10 60 90 Stuttgart AR 63 81 64 78 / 0 10 70 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...66