609
FXUS64 KLZK 130512 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1212 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Data from LZK indicate an area of returns, mostly aloft, across
southwest sections of the state, moving northeast. Overcast
conditions were in place across the state.

Short wave energy will move from the central Rockies to the Ohio
valley during this period.  As this this occurs, the resulting mass
field adjustments across the mid south, will act on increasing
overall moisture in the atmospheric columns to produce several
rounds of precipitation. Forecast parameters support isolated severe
thunderstorm and excessive rainfall chances.  The more supportive
conditions for each will occur south of the forecast area.

The precipitation will clear from southwest to northeast towards the
end of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

To begin the period, a brief break in the unsettled weather is
expected Wednesday as a low pressure system is situated in the Ohio
Valley with an additional upper level trough located out west. This
trough will bring the next disturbance to the state Thursday before
clearing the state late Friday into early Saturday.

As of this forecast package, it is too early to determine the threat
for severe with this system late in the week. But what is
certain...an unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue from
the short term period into the long term with multiple rounds of
rain expected.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side through much of
the period...especially by Saturday. Early in the period, high
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Saturday, high
temperatures are expected to increase into the mid 80s to lower 90s
across the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Clouds will continue thickening and lowering into the morning
hours, with VFR conditions becoming MVFR/IFR in most areas. Rain
and a few rumbles of thunder will be focused over southern
Arkansas, and any showers farther north should be isolated. Patchy
fog is also expected. On Monday, after hit/miss showers in the
morning, VFR conditions will gradually return during the
afternoon. The wind will be south/southeast at 4 to 8 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     77  62  77  59 /  70  70  70   0
Camden AR         79  62  82  58 /  40  30  10   0
Harrison AR       75  57  72  55 /  90  50  60   0
Hot Springs AR    79  62  80  59 /  50  50  20   0
Little Rock   AR  80  65  81  62 /  50  60  40   0
Monticello AR     80  66  82  62 /  50  50  20   0
Mount Ida AR      79  60  80  57 /  70  40  30   0
Mountain Home AR  75  59  74  55 /  70  60  70   0
Newport AR        76  64  77  60 /  60  80  70   0
Pine Bluff AR     79  65  81  61 /  50  60  30   0
Russellville AR   78  60  78  57 /  70  40  40   0
Searcy AR         77  62  78  59 /  60  70  60   0
Stuttgart AR      78  65  78  62 /  60  70  40   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...67