566
FXUS64 KLZK 091741
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1241 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Most of the convection has either dissipated or moved off to the
east/SE early this Thu morning...with a cold front dropping SE
through NWRN sections of the state. Some lingering convection will
remain possible over the next couple hrs across the E/SERN sections.
Expect this front to continue to drop SE throughout the morning
hrs...eventually dropping SE of the state by this evening.

Expect dry conditions for most areas into the afternoon hrs...but an
upper wave will lift east over SWRN sections this afternoon/early
evening...which could generate some scattered convection over the
SWRN/SRN sections. By late tonight into early Fri...flow aloft will
become NWRLY...with precip chances decreasing areawide. Much drier
and slightly cooler air will be seen for Fri as a result. Highs
today will remain in the 70s and 80s...but expect highs to drop into
the upper 60s to upper 70s on Fri. Lows by Fri morning will be in
the low 50s to low 60s. Temps may even be a few deg cooler for Fri
night into Sat morning

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Upper level ridging will be in place across the mid-south to start
off the long term. Beneath this upper ridge, a strong area of
high pressure will settle into the region through the weekend.

Drier, cooler, and more seasonal air will advect into the region
through the weekend. This will feel nice compared to humid
conditions felt of late. This will also serve to help dry out
locations that received plentiful or an overabundance of rainfall
over the past several days.

An upper level trough and closed low will quickly track across the
Rockies and into the Srn Plains over the weekend. The system will
move across the MS Valley going into Monday. This will bring a
return of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Highest PoP
chances should be Monday, with lingering PoPs into Tuesday. A brief
break in rainfall is possible on Wednesday.

Environmental conditions will have to be monitored as we approach
Monday for the possibility of strong to severe weather. At this
time, increasing moisture will be in a race against a fast
approaching upper trough. High temperature through the period should
be in the mid 70s/mid 80s. Lows should be in the mid 50s/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected across all area TAF sites through the
valid forecast period. Winds will generally remain out of the
north over the next 24 hours. There is a chance for some isolated
showers or thunderstorms over southern TAF sites late this
afternoon through this evening. Most precipitation is expected to
remain south of Arkansas, and even isolated activity should push
south of the state after midnight tonight.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     55  73  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         61  80  55  81 /  30   0   0   0
Harrison AR       51  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    60  79  55  82 /  20   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  60  77  56  81 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     62  79  57  81 /  30   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      59  77  53  81 /  20   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  52  72  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        56  75  54  80 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     60  78  55  80 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR   57  76  52  80 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         58  75  53  80 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      59  75  56  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...Cavanaugh