712
FXUS64 KLZK 180004
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
704 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Convection has fired up this afternoon, in particular along what
appears to be a residual boundary stretching nearly E-W across north-
central Arkansas. Convection is showing very little movement at this
time. Storm cells are not persisting particularly long, but
continued redevelopment over the same areas could produce locally
heavy runoff.

Aloft, a trof was quickly approaching the area from the west, and
was kicking out a few minor impulses riding over the area. The trof
should exit the area tomorrow and usher in a temporary reprieve from
precipitation. Satellite imagery shows a closed low circulation over
eastern OK, and this should move NE overnight into northern
Arkansas.

We have been fielding a lot of questions today about whether or not
there will be any rain tonight for outdoor graduation ceremonies,
and of course whether or not there is a risk for lightning.
Generally speaking, quite a bit of the convection should start to
wane by early this evening, with some lingering past sunset...
although convection will likely linger and persist in the vicinity
of the boundary and the approaching closed low aloft.

Long story short, the greatest risk for having a graduation ceremony
rained out will be across the northern third of the state, although
I would not discount the potential for a rain-out across the central
third of the state as well. And while a few showers will affect
southern AR, those will likely diminish considerably by early this
evening.

After the trof exits to the east, shortwave ridging will take place.
The heat and humidity of summer is not that far away, and Sunday
highs will give a bit of a preview of what is to come...with
dewpoints in the 60`s and highs in the upper 80`s to the lower 90`s
in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

To begin the period, high pressure will control the weather pattern
as an upper level trough will be located across the Rocky Mountains.
By late Tuesday into Wednesday...surface high pressure will push off
to the east as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes
region. This low pressure system will bring a cold front across the
state by Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Additional unsettled weather will be possible through at least
Thursday as another shortwave trough moves over the CWA.

It is still too early to mention specific details, but severe
weather chances are possible...although on the lower end as of this
forecast package. A big question regarding the severe weather
chances with the system on Wednesday will be what time of day the
storms move into the CWA.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side through much of
the period. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Higher humidity will likely make temperatures feel slightly
warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Sct SHRA/TSRA were ongoing over portions of Cntrl/Wrn/N-Cntrl AR
associated with a passing upper level disturbance. This activity
is expected to continue through 06z, afterwards precip will wind
down. VFR conds are expected to prevail through the evening, with
MVFR/IFR conds returning after 08z. Confidence in FG development
is greatest over Nrn sites. Conds should improve after 14z/15z
Sat with clouds decreasing in coverage through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  83  63  88 /  20  20   0   0
Camden AR         63  86  65  90 /  30  20   0   0
Harrison AR       59  82  60  86 /  30  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    62  85  65  89 /  40  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  65  85  67  90 /  50  20   0   0
Monticello AR     66  85  67  90 /  30  40   0   0
Mount Ida AR      60  85  63  89 /  40  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  60  82  60  87 /  20  10   0   0
Newport AR        63  83  65  88 /  30  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  85  66  89 /  40  30   0   0
Russellville AR   62  85  64  90 /  40  10   0   0
Searcy AR         62  84  63  88 /  40  30   0   0
Stuttgart AR      66  83  67  88 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...70