Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
FXAK69 PAFG 312327 CCA
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
327 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016
.SHORT TERM... Rather quiet weather pattern through the weekend
with Western Alaska under high pressure. There is low clouds, fog
and some rain showers over Eastern Brooks and Arctic coast
currently that will continue through tonight as an upper level
shortwave feature slides south along the Canadian border. This
feature will be the focus for some isolated showers in far
southeast portions of the Interior on Friday that will that will
move into the Eastern Interior. Otherwise main concerns in short
term will be the area of dense fog that will develop overnight
along the Arctic coast near Barrow. Latest satellite microphysics
products show the areas of fog extending from Wainwright and
Atqasuk toward Barter Island.
Otherwise the other concerns will be the winds increasing within
the marine zones along the Bering Strait tonight through Friday as
the surface pressure gradient tightens over the area.
Although some temperatures across Interior reached down into the
mid 20s over Fortymile country with only Goldstream Valley and
dropping to 27F, not looking at any frost type advisory as we are
heading into September which is typical for the season. Again,
rain showers will increase on Friday afternoon and evening for far
southeast portions of Eastern Interior south of Chicken.
.LONG TERM...Models in good agreement with the upper level ridge
stretching from far east Russia and across the Interior persisting
into the weekend. Several weak shortwaves moving southward from
the high Arctic will brush the Arctic coast and northeast Alaska.
This pattern will allow warm and dry conditions to continue across
much of the forecast area the next several days with periods of
clouds and some showers limited to the Arctic and near the Alcan
border. Frosty nights in some valleys and morning fog along rivers
is expected in the Interior under the clear skies.
The ridge will gradually begin to breakdown late Saturday as low
pressure over the north Pacific moves into the Bering Sea and
pushes a weather front into southwest Alaska. Showers will develop
along the west coast south of the Seward Peninsula and over the
lower Yukon valley by Sunday. By early next week, a long wave
trough develops across mainland Alaska with cooler temperatures
and showers across the forecast area.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
Although no concerns through weekend, temperatures will be warmer
than normal and drier across the Interior.
Although rivers remain high across Northwest Alaska there is no
concerns of flooding. Areas such as gravel bars may not be
accessible due to higher than normal water levels.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
MAK AUG 16