Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 301351
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
551 AM AKDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR AT 500 MB...UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR THE
MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND OPEN
UP INTO A TROUGH THIS MORNING. A 572 DAM HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. A COLD
UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR 83N/133W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
OPEN UP INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM INUVIK TO THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECASTS
OF THIS FEATURE ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE ON MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTHWARD...BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA TO COOK INLET THEN EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. A SECOND UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTH POLAR REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO THE ALASKAN ARCTIC COAST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO AREAS
FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH. MODEL FORECAST POSITIONS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON VARY...A MEAN POSITION OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN
MODELS WOULD PUT THE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST. THIS
SECOND CENTER IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTON SOUND BY
WED EVENING...WITH A RESIDUAL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND ON INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA.

SURFACE...
A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED 800 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARTER ISLAND
WILL BUILD TO 1040 MB BY THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN TO 1037
MB BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE NET MOVEMENT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
COOK INLET TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTON SOUND AND THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR.

WEST COAST...
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH
MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE YUKON DELTA. RAIN
LIKELY OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD OCCLUDED FRONT. A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUKON DELTA ZONE.

INTERIOR...
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. ELSEWHERE IN THE INTERIOR EAST
OF THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE YUKON
DELTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...OTHERWISE NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
IN MOST INTERIOR AREAS EAST OF THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL EXPERIENCE DRIER CONDITIONS
WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SUNDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...CREATING POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN SOME INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY EVENING. A DRIER AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR AREAS EAST OF THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY
MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SAG RIVER AT PUMP STATION 3 CRESTED AT 19.8 FEET AT AROUND
6 PM FRIDAY EVENING. AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING...THE SAG RIVER AT
PUMP STATION 3 HAS FALLEN TO 19.0 FEET. THE CREST WILL BE MOVING
DOWNRIVER AND REACH THE AREA OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY THAT WAS
SEVERELY DAMAGED BY THE RECENT SNOWMELT FLOODING BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH RECENT FLOODING AND DAMAGE TO THE HIGHWAY...
FLOODING IMPACTS COULD BE MORE SEVERE THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
EVENT.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

RF MAY 15



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