Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 021154
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A DEEP LOW NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST HAS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
MOVING SOUTH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THAT MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA TODAY TO FORM A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA THAT WILL DEEPEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN COOL INTO NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A 1010 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200
NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4PM THU AND THEN CONTINUE
NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW TO BARTER ISLAND
TO KOYUK TO GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO HUSLIA TO THE
YUKON DELTA BY 4PM THU...TO OLD CROW TO INDIAN MOUNTAIN TO BETHEL
BY 4AM FRI...AND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM FRI AND THEN
WEAKEN IN PLACE.  MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -8C ALONG THE FRONT AND TO
-12C OVER THE NORTH SLOPE.

WILL SEE ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE FRONT CHANGING
TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WILL SEE
SNOW OVER THE NE BROOKS RANGE WITH ANOTHER INCH ACCUMULATION
THERE. WILL SEE NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE
COASTS...DIMINISHING TO N 15 KT INLAND. WILL SEE OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW FROM BARROW TO CAPE LISBURNE THEN SOUTH TO ZONE 213 DUE TO
THE VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATER. FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN ZONES 203 AND 204.

A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE NE GULF OF ALASKA FRI WILL SPREAD
SNOW TO THE SE INTERIOR FRI AND ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR SAT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT FRI-SAT COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH UP TO 8 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ABOUT
THIS POSSIBILITY THIS AM AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND ISSUE
MORE IF THE CERTAINTY INCREASES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH SAT...AND FAIRLY SIMILAR
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.
&&

$$

OCT 14


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