Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 132215
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
215 PM AKDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COUPLE MORE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW THE CURRENT TROUGH AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN RAIN AS THE
TROUGHS APPROACH AND COOLER WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE WITH SOME BRIEF
WARMING BETWEEN. THIS GENERAL PATTERN HAS CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS.

SURFACE...COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND SOUTH
OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA AND INLAND OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA.
THE FRONT WILL TURN STATIONARY AND MOVE BACK NORTH TO THE BERING
STRAIT AND NORTH OF NORTON SOUND ON MONDAY. THE EAST PORTION OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE NORTH SLOPE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 999 MB LOW
PRESSURE 250 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM SIBERIA TO THE SOUTH CHUKCHI
SEA...BETWEEN WRANGEL ISLAND AND CAPE LISBURNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT TIME...MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW. ONE MODEL HAS IT MOVING DIRECTLY NORTH AND
ANOTHER MOVES IT EAST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. AT THIS TIME THE NORTH
ROUTE HAS MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. SURFACE LOWS...SPAWNED
BY A SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGHS...TAKE A TRAJECTORY
SOMEWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TO NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE THIS HAPPENING TWICE MORE AFTER
THE CURRENT EVENT.

NORTH SLOPE...COOL AND RAINY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOR THE
NORTH SLOPE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND
SURFACE LOWS PASS EAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER
EACH PASSAGE...THOUGH THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE WET WITH MELTING
SNOW BETWEEN EVENTS. WIND AND WIND SHIFTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTS AND TROUGHS.

WEST COAST...A FRONT NORTH OF GAMBELL WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK
NORTH WITH ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. COOL AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE EAST. MARINE AREAS WILL HAVE
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST WEST COAST MARINE AREAS.

INTERIOR...THE WESTERN INTERIOR ZONES HAVE CLOUDED OVER WITH RAIN
BEGINNING IN EARNEST OVER ZONES 216...219...218 AND NEARBY AREAS
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL MOVE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST. BY MONDAY EVENING THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF ARCTIC
VILLAGE...FORT YUKON...AND FAIRBANKS. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WILL NOT HAVE A COMPLETE END OF RAIN/SHOWERS BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SIMILAR...EXCEPT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL GO FURTHER SOUTH
AND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY MEAN A TURN TO WET AND COOLER WEATHER PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF WEATHER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT WEEK...SYSTEMS WILL BE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH NOT TO CAUSE COASTAL HAZARDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCOMING RAIN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL RAISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...BASINS OF SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN ZONES 216 AND
219 ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. TWENTY-FOUR HOUR QPFS STILL FORECAST TO BE UP TO ONE INCH
WITH 48 HOUR AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES...MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
2 1/2 INCHES. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE
FLOODING...HOWEVER THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. BASINS MOST LIKELY INFLUENCED BY THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE AREA FROM EAST OF NOME NORTHEAST OVER HUSLIA TO BETTLES AND
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...INCLUDING THE KOYUK AND CONFLUENCE OF
THE KOYUKUK AND YUKON RIVERS. A RIVER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
IF THE SITUATION BECOMES MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE MORE RAIN EVENTS OVER THE SAME AREAS
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS FIRST EVENT MAY NOT BE QUITE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE WITH
THE NEXT EVENTS AS THE GROUND WILL BE MORE SATURATED AND RIVERS
AND STREAMS WILL START FROM HIGHER LEVELS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

$$

DA JUL 14


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