Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 302313 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A long wave ridge from NW Canada to the Beaufort Sea will weaken
slowly through mid-week as several short wave troughs move north
over Northern Alaska, then rebuild slowly next weekend.
Temperatures will remain generally above normal over northern
Alaska through the next week with a slight cooling in mid week as
the ridge weakens. There will be periods of snow or rain with the
short waves as they move north over next several days.

A short wave trough from Nome to Northway will move to The Bering
Strait to Bettles to Eagle by 4am Mon...from Noatak to Coldfoot
to Old Crow by 4pm Mon...then dissipate over the Arctic Slope Mon
night and Tue. There will be isolated snow or rain showers with
this trough, excepting for scattered rain showers this afternoon
and evening in the eastern Interior where there is higher
moisture. Weak south flow aloft following this trough will cause a
weak chinook to develop over the Alaska Range tonight through
Tue. This will cause drying along the Tanana Valley tonight and
remaining dry through Tue with Min RH in the 20-30% range.

Weak instability stretching from the Yukon Delta to Fairbanks to
Eagle will persist through Tue. Expect isolated afternoon and
evening showers along this feature. Instability too weak for
thunderstorms in Alaska with this.


Surface...
A strong surface high pressure ridge north of the Arctic Coast
will persist through Wed. This will cause east winds 10-20 kt
along the Arctic Coast to persist along with fog from midnight
night through noon each day.

A lee side trough stretching from McGrath to just south of Nenana
to Northway will remain quasi-stationary through Tue. This will
cause south winds gusting 35 mph through Alaska Range passes now
through Tue. This will cause near red flag conditions along the
Richardson Highway from Delta south on Mon and Tue.

A low in the southeast Bering Sea will move south on Mon. An
occluded front stretching from the low into Bristol Bay will move
north over the Yukon Delta Mon and then slowly dissipate through
Tue. This will bring isolated to scattered showers to the Yukon
Delta and southwest Interior Mon into Tue.

A strong low developing in the Gulf of Alaska Tue will move move
to the northern Gulf of Alaska Wed. Ac occluded front associated
with this front will spread north to the Gulf of Alaska Coast on
Tue night and over the Southeast Interior Wed. This will bring a
significant chance of rain to the area south and east of Fairbanks
on Wed.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and show similar solutions through 4am
Tue, then start to see the NAM significantly weaker than the GFS
and ECMF on the strength of a short wave moving north out of the
Gulf of Alaska. Prefer the GFS solution with a deeper feature
moving north Wed and Thu due to its continuity with previous run
and the ECMF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weak south flow aloft will cause a weak chinook to develop over
the Alaska Range tonight through Tue. This will cause drying
along the Tanana Valley tonight and remaining dry through Tue
with Min RH in the 20-30% range. South winds gusting 35 mph
through Alaska Range passes now through Tue. This will cause near
red flag conditions along the Richardson Highway from Delta
Junction south this afternoon and Mon and Tue pm.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

JB APR 17


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