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000
FXAK67 PAJK 120042
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
442 PM AKDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT, WITH STRONG WIND, HEAVY RAIN, AND HEAVY SNOW. STREAMS
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE RISING TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. REMAINING WET ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT, CURRENTLY STRADDLING OVER SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD. A SECONDARY
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG WIND AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE
AREA. PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND THE GATEWAY COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE WIND GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 MPH TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.

THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT IS AIMING AT SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS A
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AROUND 1 INCH, WHICH IS ABOUT
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ARE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT. CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AND REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGES. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD ADVISORY.

WITH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE COOLER INTERIOR, SNOW HAS BEEN
HAPPENING ALL DAY TUESDAY IN HYDER AREA. LOCAL SPOTTERS REPORTED
AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN
THE HYDER AREA. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE HYDER AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THEN, WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S.
EXPECT 2 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT, GIVING A STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 15 INCHES. THUS, ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR HYDER. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL BE WET HEAVY SNOW AND THE STRONG WIND FOLLOWED BY IT
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE, WET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS CENTRAL PANHANDLE. SNOW WILL MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. UTILIZED ECMWF AS THE
PRIMARY MODEL OF CHOICE. FOR QPF, USED A BLEND OF GFS AND GEMS TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WED NIGHT TO BE EJECTED AS A NEW STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE FAR
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH IT WEATHER FRONT MARCHING ACROSS THE
GULF AND INTO THE ARE THURSDAY. NOT SURE THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
WILL BE A SIMPLE CUT AND DRIED FRONTAL BAND AS THE MAIN LOW HAS
SEVERAL SLOW IN IT. A SERIES OF COMPRESSED FRONT POSSIBLE WITH
A COUPLE OF FRONTS STACKED TOGETHER. OVERALL THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH A GOOD HANDLE TO THE WEEKEND.

MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVING SOME ISSUES AROUND SATURDAY AS A
DEVELOPING WAVE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW PATTER AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN
EARLY WEEKEND. THE TRACK OF THIS STILL DEBATABLE SO TENDED TO STAY
WITH WPC FOR NOW. IN THE LONG RANGE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT SO THE IT LOOKS AS IF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-031-035-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-042-053.

&&

$$

RCL/BEZENEK