Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 140048
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
NEAR GALE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
W THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL ALSO PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ATTM MOVG N. POPS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SKAGWAY AND HYDER BY OVERNIGHT.
AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES
DIMINISHING TONIGHT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES PERSIST AS SEAS
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE SE
GULF SUNDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING OVER PKZ036-041
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND
PTYPE FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING
VERY WELL LATELY WITH THIS ABOVE NORMAL AIRMASS. MODELS SHOW
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT WAA AT 850MB OVERNIGHT AND WITH INCREASING SKY
COVER...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL COOLING. USED PREVIOUS
OBS AND MOS GUIDANCE TO ADJUST MIN TEMPS SUN MORNING WITH MOST
LOCATIONS INCREASING 1-5F OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH MAY SEE
SOME SN MIXING IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN...ELECTED TO REMOVE
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MENDENHALL VALLEY AND LIMIT AMOUNTS
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE MONDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL SEE A WEATHER FRONT MOVING
NORTH AND FALLING APART THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO ABOUT 200 NM WEST
OF PRINCE OF WALES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW DISSIPATES THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW BREAKS OFF FROM A FRONT FURTHER WEST AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

THE LONGER RANGES SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ITS FRONT BAND
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY SO
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAD BEEN MADE. LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY ONWARD I USED THE NATIONAL GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE INTO
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
&&

$$

BC/BEZENEK

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