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000
FXAK67 PAJK 012325
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
325 PM AKDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
OFFSHORE. WE ARE GRATEFUL FOR A BREAK IN THE RAIN AND TO SEE THE
SUN AGAIN. A PLANETARY SCALE UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SW OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT YOU CAN SEE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE S. PESKY MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WERE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO DISSIPATE TODAY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
AREAS OF MAINLY LOW STRATUS ALONG STRETCHES OF THE COASTLINE.

TWO CHALLENGES: FORM AND BRING IN MORE FOG TONIGHT AS FAR AS ICY
STRAIT AND ALL ALONG THE OUTER COAST INCLUDING ALL BAYS OR NOT.
HEDGED AND SAID YES. NEXT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE SEA BREEZE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN INDICATED A PUSH OF WESTERLIES AS
ENHANCED SEAS BREEZES AS LONG AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE FOR SEA BREEZE AND WHERE THE
FOG. OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE IN PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING TO PUSH E WITH THE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE PANHANDLE SAT
INTO SUN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A WEAK WEATHER FRONT THAT
WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND INTO THE OUTER
COAST SUN WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT LOW MON
BRINGING AN END TO THE WARM/SUNNY WEATHER AS RAIN CHANCES EXPAND
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
AND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. MINOR SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. HIGHLY
ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DEEP ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR IN MARINE ST AND FOG FOR THE OUTER COAST.
TRANSITION AREAS ARE ICY STRAIT AND PAGS. SOME OF THE NICEST VFR
YOU WILL SEE THIS SUMMER ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...KEPT A WESTERLY OF 15 KT OUTSIDE WITH ONLY WIND WAVES
AND VERY LITTLE SWELL. HARD TO CALL EITHER 20 OR 25 KT FOR SEVERAL
AREAS. CROSS SOUND AND N-LYNN HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AND OPTED TO MAKE THE CALL FOR N-LYNN.
LOOK FOR 15 TO 20 KTS FOR THE USUAL BAD SEA BREEZE SPOTS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

JC/BC

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