


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
349 FXAK67 PAJK 150528 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 928 PM AKDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .UPDATE...6z Aviation Update && .SHORT TERM... Key Points: - Ridge over the gulf continues partly cloudy skies and dry conditions - High temperatures reaching mid to high 60s this week - Light winds with afternoon sea breezes Details: The ridge off the outer coast continues to build through the beginning of the week with a broad upper level high stagnating over the gulf. The consistent northwesterly flow will allow for dry conditions to continue and skies to clear out through the next few days. Light winds persist through the period with the exception of afternoon sea breezes, which could increase onshore wind speeds up to 15 to 20 kts in places like Skagway and in the channels. The clearing skies will allow temperatures to increase to mid to high 60s with some areas even reaching the 70s. As these daytime temperatures increase, sea breezing will increase with the strengthening temperature gradient. This will also allow for the development of a marine layer along the coast, in Yakutat, and into the inner channels as a low cloud deck. Early morning fog development is expected for many communities on the inner coastline such as Angoon, Kake, and Petersburg. Areas near Frederick Sound may see visibilities decrease to a quarter statute mile at times. Fog will dissipate as the sun comes up and temperatures begin to rise. .LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Friday / The ridge over the gulf Wednesday will flatten slightly leading to a more zonal like flow across the southern gulf the British Columbia by Friday. A weak trough spreads some light rain into the Northeast gulf coast Wednesday to early Thursday. The zonal flow may not run across the southern panhandle Friday and Saturday and Sunday /positions is variable in the models/, but any shortwaves could potentially clip the area with precipitation, Friday or Saturday. Short waves are small, would be fairly quick moving so isolating them may be issued. Wednesday should fairly sunny for the inner channels but will be needing to watch the Marine layer out over the gulf that is pushing to the coast, and likely trying to spread into the panhandle over the later part of the week. && .AVIATION...Only one large change made to the 6z TAF, with mostly similar ideas going forward. Still looking at a resurgence of the marine layer overnight, which looks to stick around Yakutat all day tomorrow. May see some breaks for Yakutat, but difficult timing if it will occur. For Gustavus, looks like the cloud deck has moved in a tad early in from Cross Sound. With the sun still present, looking to keep this as a tempo group before the sun sets and the cloud deck moves over the taf site properly. For the one change, Ketchikan winds look to stay elevated through the night, which will mix out any low clouds that attempt to develop over the area. For most of the southern panhandle, not looking at much fog or cloud development due to increasing northerly winds in Clarence Strait mixing out the atmosphere. && .MARINE... Outside Waters: Light northwesterly winds in the gulf begin to increase tonight as the ridge continues to build. Wind speeds along the coast will increase to fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) Tuesday morning and will persist into Wednesday when the high pressure begins to weaken. Wave heights at 4 to 5 ft increase through Monday night to nearly 8 ft off the southern coast of PoW. With the clear skies and warming temperatures, a marine layer is expected to develop along the coast. Based on persistance, it will most likely begin early off the coast of Yakutat and travel south. Inside Waters: Light winds persist in the inner channels through the day with the exception of afternoon onshore sea breezes picking up to moderate breezes (11 to 16 kts). Cross Sound into Icy Strait and Lynn Canal will see the strongest winds Tuesday afternoon, with Northern Lynn potentially seeing up to 20 kts of wind. Winds in southern Clarence Strait will continue to increase through the period as the tightening ridge increases offshore flow. Increasing temperatures and clearing skies may allow for fog and marine layer development in the early morning which will dissipate as the morning goes on. Channel entrances may see the low cloud deck attempt to push inward through the morning, especially through Cross Sound. Some areas near Frederick Sound may see visibilities decrease to near a quarter mile with fog development. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZTK LONG TERM....Bezenek AVIATION...NC MARINE...ZTK Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau