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000
FXUS63 KAPX 081139
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
639 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SETTLE ACROSS
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...PROVIDING COOL BUT QUIET WEATHER. A SERIES OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE SPOTTY CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE
MILDER...BUT COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

RADAR/OBS SHOWING ANOTHER FLARE-UP OF SOME FLURRIES IN NW LOWER
MI...AND THAT HAS BEEN ADDED TO GRIDDED FORECASTS. WILL ALSO NEED
TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY...STILL SEVERAL HOURS OF AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUD
COVER BEFORE THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND TO THE NORTH WINS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

CURRENTLY, SFC LOW PRESSURE IS THE EAST IN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WITH
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW, TRAILS THROUGH SE LOWER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE HIGH IS PUSHING THE COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SO THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE
CLEARING SKIES, AND TONIGHT, THE AMOUNT OF WARMING TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

TODAY...WHILE THERE ARE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER, NONE OF THESE ARE
GETTING ANY BIGGER. RATHER, THE CLOUD MASS IS SINKING SOUTH WITH THE
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION. SO THE CLOUD MASS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH, HOWEVER, AS THE SUN BEGINS TO RISE AND WARMING THE
LAND UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES, THE MIXING WILL TAKE HOLD AND EVAPORATE
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON, PER ALL THE MODELS, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGES, THE DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA, GIVING US MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE LIGHT NORTH WINDS ALL
DAY, AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -12C BY 00Z, WILL
EXPECT THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
AS THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ALL DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL THE VERY LAST PORTION OF
THE NIGHT(09-12Z), AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER E
UPPER AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT BEGINS TO GENERATE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
WINDS LIGHT IN THE EVENING, THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LOWS OCCURRING
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, ONLY TO HOLD AS THE WINDS BEGINS TO BACK TO THE
SW AND INCREASE ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTING FROM AROUND 06Z TO
12Z. THINK THAT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL SEE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING COOLER
THAN THE NORTH AS WE GET CLOSER TO 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE REST OF THE FORECAST CAN BE ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED AS SPRING
OCCASIONALLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR...FOLLOWED BY WINTER SLAMMING SAID
DOOR SHUT. THE 500MB RIDGING NOW PRESENT OVER THE NW STATES AND
WESTERN CANADA WILL RELAX...RESULTING IN FAST AND RATHER FLAT WNW
FLOW ALOFT BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RETURN MILDER
AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TO THE REGION...UNTIL THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS
RE-ESTABLISHED AND ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTH AGAIN BY MID-WEEK. TEMP
AND PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

SUNDAY...A PAIR OF LOW-AMPLITUDE BUT FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE SE-WARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WELL NORTH OF SUPERIOR. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTH OF THESE WAVES...NEARING
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY. AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS...WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THRU THE DAY.
ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE MN/CANADA BORDER...
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...TO JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL COME IN TWO WAVES...IN THE MORNING (290K) AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER IN THE AFTERNOON (295K). FOR US...THE BEST ASCENT IS IN NE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS A GLANCING BLOW REGARDLESS.
PLACES IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER ARE HANGING ONTO DRY AIR AT 875MB (DEW
PT DEPRESSIONS 10-15C) IN THE MORNING...THEN DRY OUT SOMEWHAT ALOFT
IN THE PM. IN EASTERN UPPER...DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE REDUCED TO
AROUND 5C AT TIMES. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR -SN ALL DAY
IN EASTERN UPPER...THE STRAITS REGION AND DOWN TOWARD ROGERS
CITY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHERN CHIPPEWA. FLURRY WORDING
SHOULD FROM LTL TRAV BAY DOWN TO HARRISVILLE...AND NOTHING SW OF
THERE. CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE IN MOST OF NORTHERN MI...BUT
THERE COULD BE DECENT BREAKS IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS (M-55 AND SOUTH).
MAX TEMPS NEAR 30F TO THE MID 30S.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES REGION...AS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LAKES STRUGGLES TO DISLODGE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO. A VERY FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL SCREAM ALONG THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE CLIPPER/S PATH AND PROGRESSION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE 72 HOUR LEAD TIME. BUT THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW IS A BIGGER QUESTION...WITH THE ECMWF/NAM 5-10MB DEEPER
THAN THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF IDEA...WITH THE GFS OFF ON
IT/S LONESOME...AND THE ECMWF IS STILL THE ECMWF. THIS FAVORS A
994MB-ISH LOW NEAR OR SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE SAULT BY MONDAY EVENING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND F-GEN FORCING WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN A BAND
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. MAIN QUESTION IS
WHETHER THIS BAND WILL CATCH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OR WHETHER IT WILL HOVER JUST NORTH. OUR PREFERRED MODELS
OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS BY MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH HAVE SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS...AS FORCING WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLIPPER ISN/T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. ON MONDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS
ALMOST ALL PRECIP NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH
MEANS AN ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY IN NORTHERN MI. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY
SOGGIER...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. NO REASON TO GET TOO FANCY...WITH
CHANCY POPS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...RETREATING NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.

P-TYPE? MAINLY SNOW THRU SUNDAY EVENING...AS EVAP COOLING WOULD
KNOCK DOWN ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP A WARM NOSE AT 850MB. HOWEVER...
INCREASING WARMTH/MOISTURE AT THAT LEVEL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MAKES
THINGS MORE PROBLEMATIC (875MB TEMPS TO 5C OVER GLR BY MORNING).
DON/T WANT TO CARRY A WIDE VARIETY OF P-TYPES GIVEN POPS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 30-40 RANGE...BUT WILL ADD A FZRA MENTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...MAINLY FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MI. THIS DOES NOT YET WARRANT A MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S...WITH PLACES ALONG LAKE MI RISING OVERNIGHT.
MAX TEMPS MID 30S TO MID 40S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE DEPARTING CLIPPER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL ENTER
THE REGION BEHIND IT...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE STUCK IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY MORNING (WED NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY)...
AND WARM ADVECTION RESUMES THURSDAY IN ITS WAKE. SOME VERY
SPECULATIVE PRECIP CHANCES FINALLY RETURN TOWARD FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW...BUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED IS
DRY. ANY LATE-WEEK WARM-UP LOOKS TO BE BRIEF...AS WESTERN RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL COLD AIR OUR WAY NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY IN THE
FOLLOWING WEEK...PER MOST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING IN LINGERING LOWER
CIGS/FLURRIES. OTHERWISE VFR.

A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN NW LOWER MI. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT
TODAY...PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER AN MVFR START TO
THE DAY IN SOME AREAS...ALL PLACES WILL BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

N TO NW BREEZES TODAY...LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ