Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 300000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
800 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Overnight will be primarily dry with patchy fog. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely both Tuesday and Wednesday primarily
during the afternoon and early evening hours.


645 pm update... We`ve updated the near-term grids to include
isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms near the I-81
corridor through 8-9 pm. Radar loops have shown an uptick in
activity recently, near a low-level convergence boundary and
instability axis (ML Cape values of roughly 300-500 j/kg).
Showers and storms should diminish again later this evening, as
the atmosphere stabilizes, and the previously referenced
boundary further weakens.

Otherwise, only minor temperature tweaks were made.

Previous discussion... In the western forecast area a mild
southwest flow has developed along with partly sunny skies and
temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. To the east a cool
southeast flow continues with overcast skies and temperatures in
the middle 50s along with isolated showers. During the next
couple of hours this boundary will push a little farther east
but mostly cloudy skies and cool temperatures will remain in the
western Catskills and Poconos. Isolated showers will be
possible from I81 east through early evening otherwise the
overnight period will be dry until we approach daybreak.
Southeast low level flow will bring low status and areas of fog
across northeast Pennsylvania, the western Catskills and
southern tier. Low will range in the 50s.

Tuesday...Models continue to indicate CAPE values of 800-1200
J/KG in the western forecast area during the afternoon. A mid
level short wave, deep layer shear of 50 knots and fairly
strong mid level wind field would support the development of
some severe thunderstorms. The best area for this activity would
be the Finger Lakes region and southern tier. The primary threat
would be damaging winds and brief heavy rainfall. Areas farther
east may not destabilize enough due to persistent stratus.

Tuesday night...Convective activity may linger into the early
evening hours then the rest of the overnight period will be
fairly quiet due to limited forcing.


225 PM update...

No changes to the overall pattern are forecast for the middle
of the week. A persistent trough will continue to spin over the
northeastern CONUS, with a short wave spreading showers into NY
and PA on Wednesday.

Shear looks strong on Wednesday (50 knots) with CAPE values
around 300-600 j/kg. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected to
produce gusty winds and hail. Highs will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

A surface ridge will nose into western PA on Thursday, bringing
a few breaks of sun. An isolated shower remains possible.

Another short wave will spread showers into the western half of
the forecast area Thursday night.


The upper atmospheric trough will remain in place through next
weekend, though the energy will focus more on Ontario and
Quebec. While this may allow for a few more breaks of sun across
NY and PA, scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms will
continue to be a threat for our forecast area.

Afternoon temperatures will remain below normal, while the
cloudy and humid conditions will tend to support above normal
temperatures overnight.


740 pm update...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain and hail now in SYR will exit
shortly after 00z. Some weakening of this thunderstorms and the
one further south this evening so expecting only an hour or two
of MVFR showers at RME.

Current conditions VFR at ITH/ElM and MVFR cigs at BGM/AVP. With
southwest flow at low levels moisture will continue at BGM/AVP
for the entire period and move northwest to include all but SYR
with MVFR ceilings. BGM/AVP will fall to IFR ceilings late
tonight. ELM/ITH may fall to IFR late tonight too.

MVFR rain showers move into SYR/RME/ELM/ITH around 15z then to
BGM by 18z. Some showers may get to AVP but did not include.
Will not change category of fuel alternate MVFR.

At SYR//RME also the chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon
with better clearing and more instability. MVFR conditions with
that for most of the time.

Southeast to south winds at 4 to 8 knots tonight. Tuesday south
winds at 10 knots with afternoon gusts to 20.


Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday...Restrictions possible from
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Generally VFR.

Friday to Saturday...Potential restrictions in rain showers.




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