Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 300509
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
109 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY NIGHT, A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH
AND EAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ADJUSTED ONSET OF POPS SLOWER BY 1-2 HOURS LATER TONIGHT...BASED
ON UPSTREAM OBS AND HIGH RES MODEL TRENDS...OTHERWISE LITTLE
CHANGE. ONE THING TO NOTE IS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING TONIGHT...WAVE PASSAGE REMOVES DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS
IT TURNS OUT THAT ALMOST ENTIRE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN
DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES. PORTION OF COLUMN WITH BEST OMEGA /LIFT/
WILL ONLY BE MINUS-2 TO MINUS-6 CELSIUS. SO WHILE NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY MAY MANAGE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HELP OF
UPSLOPING /AND SLIGHTLY THICKER SATURATED LAYER THERE/...AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LIGHT COATING OF UNDER AN INCH
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL MELT DURING THE DAY WITH LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO CHANGING TO RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CRESTING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. HOWEVER A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
EVENING WITH A SHOT OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVING OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BEGINNING AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THIS
EVENING AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN AS THE SYSTEM BRINGS IN A MILDER SW FLOW. WE
CONTINUE TO DEPICT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVER THE LAKE PLAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.

FOR MONDAY, THE INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
OCCLUSION PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST HOWEVER EXPECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
TO LINGER DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AS
IS TYPICAL IN THESE SCENARIOS, SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
OVER CENTRAL NY PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO, AS TEMPS MONDAY MODERATE
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON PRECIP WILL
BECOME MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR MOST AREAS...GENERALLY A
LIGHT COATING TO JUST UNDER AN INCH...HEAVIEST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHERN
ONEIDA IN THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GLANCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR MOVING BACK IN. LOWS BY EARLY TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY FOR TUESDAY AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THIS
LOW AND MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE NAM AND GEM GLOBAL
TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH AND BRING THE AREA A SHOT OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
ADDITIONAL COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE TIME OF YEAR AND
MARGINAL TEMPS. IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK WERE TO VERIFY, THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF NE PA INTO
THE SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME WE DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY. IN ANY EVENT, CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
FAIR BUT COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 4OS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE ECENS MEAN AND NAEFS MEAN. IN GENERAL A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

WED NIGHT LOOKS FAIR AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OFF THE NJ COAST AND
A COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ADVERTISE HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AS A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
NORTHEAST THEN A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
FINALLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THIS PERIOD
THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF FRONTS
AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
BE A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY MINOR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING INTO NY/PA WILL SPREAD A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING BETWEEN
3SM AND 6SM IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 2000 FT
AND 5000 FT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.

AT RME...STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AND UP TO 2000 FT AGL WILL
GENERATE MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT A BIT LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST, GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...OCCASIONAL MINOR RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN/SNOW AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH.

WED/THU...VFR.

THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP





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