Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 301749
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
149 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. STARTING
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM, WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM, APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, FROM SUNDAY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1218 PM UPDATE...
BESIDES A MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS
TO THE SKY COVER GRID. CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND NORTH IS
BATTLING AGAINST DESTRUCTIVE CUMULUS FORMATION, KEEPING SKIES
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

330 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN, ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION FOG.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
THE UPPER HAND TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER NY`S
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, AND ALSO WEAK FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE UP OVER OUR
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGING, ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS, WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO MOVE BACK INTO NY AND PA. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE, OVER WEST TX AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW COMING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
JUST MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS LIKELY TO SHEAR OUT, AS IT MOVES
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, THEN
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
THICK CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY STEADIER
RAIN, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TIME. IF WE DO SEE
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATER IN THE DAY,
AND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT
MAKE IT PAST THE 50S.

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S-LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT AAS
THE TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE
THU AS A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELYHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS INCLUDING RME AND
SYR...OTRW HTG HAS FILLED THE SC DECK BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA.
XPCT THE VFR DECK TO CONT THRU THE AFTN BEFORE ERODING SOMEWHAT
THIS EVE. WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGHER VFR DECK AHD OF A STRONG
WV APRCHG FROM THE OH VLY FOR SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FAIRLY
SHARP FNT END TO THE RAIN AFT 06Z...MVG FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EARLY MRNG HRS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A WIDESPREAD MVFR DECK
DVLPG A CPL HRS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE RAIN...WHICH CONTS THRU THE
END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED/THU...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM


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