Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 301426
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1026 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NW PA WHICH ORIGINATED DOWNWIND
FROM LAKE ERIE. THERE WAS ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LAKE
ONTARIO AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WAS TRACKING THRU MICHIGAN AND SEEN WELL IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WAS PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFTING WITH ASSCTD COOLING ALOFT BY ASCENT AS WELL AS SOME MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS IT PROPOGATED EASTWARD TWD NY AND PA.
THE SHOWERS I BELIEVE HAVE FORMED IN RESPONSE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PLUS DIABATIC SENSIBLE AND LATENT HEATING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMER WATERS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
BOTH LAKES HAD WATER TEMPERATURES APPRCHG 70F OR ABOUT 21C OR SO.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 9C WHICH GIVES ARND A 12C
DIFFERENTIAL SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT IN LATE
JULY!! AMAZING.

IN ANY EVENT...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND PROVIDE
ADDTNL COOLING ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIABATING HEATING
OF THE SURFACE FROM STRG INSOLATION AFTER THE PRECIP ADVECTS AWAY
FROM THE LAKES. MODEL CAPES WERE STILL MARIGINAL AND I DON/T SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. JUST SCT SHRA WITH A FEW ISLD CLAPS
OF THUNDER AS THIS WAVE MOVES E THIS AFTERNOON. I USED OUR LOCAL
WRF 4KM AS GUIDANCE FOR THE HOURLY POPS AS IT HAD THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE PRESENT EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP. THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF
THE REGION BY 00Z. SO HAV SLGHT-CHC POPS WORKING EWRD TODAY BUT
NOT QUITE REACHING DOWN TO NE PA OR SULLIVAN CO NY BASED ON MODEL
GUIDC B4 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE BY FRIDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS
WEST OF REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED POPS QUICKLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND CHC
OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY. DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL POOL ALOFT AND
SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRW. THURSDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE AND COOL WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND SOUTHWEST MODERATING FLOW. LATER IN THE DAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT, WITH AN INCREASING DECK OF MID CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT MOVING
IN AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KELM AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT KBGM DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KELM WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO IFR AND THEN VFR BY 1330Z. AT KBGM
FOG IS CREEPING UP THE HILL AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VSBYS
THROUGH 12Z BEFORE A QUICK RETURN TO VFR.

RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN NY
STATE. WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME IN THE 18Z TO 03Z TIME
FRAME, I TRIED TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES WITH A TEMPO GROUP.

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
TODAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT OR NEAR CALM.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.