Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 021447
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1047 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK
STATE TODAY AND COVER NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES TODAY THIS HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR EARLY JULY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

1045 AM UPDATE...PLENTY OF CU ARND ATTM AS A WEAK BNDRY SETTLES
SWRD ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW ISLTD SHWRS PSBL
ALONG AND NEAR THE BNDRY. SOME MINOR CHGS TO TEMPS AND POP GRIDS
BUT NO MAJOR CHGS ATTM.

5 AM UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER LAKES
THAT WILL SWING E TODAY AND PUSH A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WAS SEEN BEST IN THE 925 AND 850 MB DEWPOINT
FIELDS. MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...HRRR...RAP...
WRF_NMM....WRF_ARW AND EVEN THE LOWER RES GFS AND EURO ALL SPIT
OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NRN PA LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS THIS LL DWPT GRADIENT WORKS SOUTHWARD. HENCE ADDED
SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY
TO PS SKIES BY AFTERNOON. PREVOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

2 AM UPDATE...
RADARS SHOW A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS A MOIST LOW-LEVEL NRLY FLOW CONTINUES UPSLOPING. DRY ADVECTION
PICKS UP THIS MORNING ACRS C NY WHICH SHUD ALLOW THIS ACVTY TO
WANE. ALL MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY SHALLOW AND MOIST LAYER AT 925
MB THAT PERSISTS UNTIL 15Z ON THE NAM12...RAP...HRRR...WRF_NMM AND
WRF_ARW. THIS MOISTURE WAS SEEN WELL IN THE 925 MB RH FIELDS ON
ALL THESE MESOSCALE MODELS. ALL MODELS DISSIPATE THIS MOISTURE
AFTER 15Z AS THE BNDRY LAYER GROWS WITH THE DAY/S HEATING.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWS MAINLY MID AND HI CLOUDS WORKING ACRS
NRN PA AND C NY WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS AT MVFR AS THE MODELS
WUD SUGGEST GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE 925 MB MOISTURE. AS THE NRLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BNDRY LAYER
AND UPSLOPING, THESE FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE TO CONDENSE OUT A
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS LAYER FOR MOST OF C NY AND NE PA. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS HOW MUCH FOG FORMS IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE
THE STRATOCUMULUS FORMS. THERE IS ALSO HIGH CLOUDS ARND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THRU THE LOWER LAKES TO COMPLICATE THIS
FURTHER. FOR NOW HAVE BKN CLOUDS IN GRIDS WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.

FOR LATER TODAY WITH INSOLATION AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN
INTO THE BNDRY LAYER I SEE PLENTY OF CUMULUS FORMING SO HAVE PS
SKIES EVOLVING FROM A CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY START. CU RULE
SUGGESTS BKN CU MANY AREAS ESP FARTHER S WHERE DWPTS ARE HIGHER.

FOR TONIGHT...A MOISTURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACRS NRN PA AS PER THE
GFS...NAM AND THE PREV RUN OF THE EURO AND ALSO ON THE LATEST
RGEM. ALL THE MODELS LINGER MOISTURE AT 850 MB IN NRN PA AS A
RESULT WITH DRIER AIR FARTHER N. SO HAVE PC SKIES FOR NERN PA TO
CLEAR IN C NY FOR TONIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE SCT-BKN CUMULUS FORMS AGAIN AS CU RULE
STILL SHOWS HIGHER SFC DWPTS THAN 850 MB TEMPS WITH THE MARGIN
GREATEST IN NE PA. FOR NOW HAVE PC SKIES TO REFLECT.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS WELL AFTER WE FINISHED
THE MONTH OF JUNE IN BGM WHERE WE CAME CLOSE TO 10 INCHES OF
RAIN!!

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM THU UPDATE... ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
CAN`T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
PA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION...AS SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK ACROSS NY STATE. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

ON SATURDAY...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW POINTS/BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEASTERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WE CERTAINLY
DON`T EXPECT A WASHOUT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORESEEN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A RESULT OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND ALSO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM THU UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-80S)...AS FLAT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS...AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
BEGIN TO EXERT THEIR INFLUENCE.

PREV DISC... ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES... HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NEXT COLD APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING
THE AREA LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CHC
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRATOCUMULUS
LAYER BTWN 2500 FEET AND 3500 FEET IN MOST AREAS UNDER PATCHY MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WAS PATCHY MVFR CIG AND VSBY AT OUR TAF
SITES. THE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WAS NRLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILLS OF C NY AND
NRN PA CONDENSING OUT THE LOWER CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A COOL AND MOIST LAYER BTWN 2 AND 8 KFT, ROUGHLY,
WHICH AFTER SOME INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
FROM THE PRESENT STRATOCUMULUS LAYER. THE CUMULUS CUD GET THICK
ENUF FOR A FEW SPRINKLES BUT I DON/T EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS AND
THE SPRINKLES WILL BE ISLD IN NATURE. ADDTNLY MVFR CIG WILL LIFT
TO THE VFR CUMULUS LAYER BY LATE MORNING. THERE CUD BE A LITTLE
IFR AT KBGM IN FOG AS DENSE FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE NEARBY VALLEYS
AFTER SUNRISE. KELM HAS A BKN STRATOCUMULUS DECK SO NOT EXPECTING
IFR FOG THERE. REST OF TAFS VFR-MVFR ERLY IN STRATOCU...MIXING UP
TO VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS BY LATE MORNING.

AFTER SUNSET...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE ALL TAFS EXCEPT IN NE PA
WHERE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS
THRU THE NGT UNDER CIRRUS. I DON/T EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS AND
HAVE 6000 FEET CLOUD BASES UNDER HIGHER CIRRUS TONIGHT AT
KBGM/KELM AND KAVP.

WINDS WILL BE NW UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN THRU MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJN
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ/MSE
AVIATION...DJN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.