Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 302009
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW PERSISTING DOWNWIND FROM THE FINGER LAKES...AND
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AREA-WIDE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES FORESEEN
FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM COULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS THIS PD.

AREA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVSY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS...AS VERY STG 925-850 MB CAA THROUGH THIS EVE...SHOULD SEND
AIR TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV OR BLO ZERO TNT...WITH THE
PRES GRADIENT REMAINING RELATIVELY TIGHT THIS EVE...AND ONLY
SLOWLY RELAXING LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
-10 TO -20 RANGE...WITH LOCALLY COLDER VALUES IN OUR FAR NRN AND
ERN ZNS.

AS FAR AS THE LES ADVSY GOES...NO CHGS ATTM. ALTHOUGH BLYR INSTAB
(TERRESTRIAL CAPE VALUES OF 15-30 J/KG) TEMPORARILY RESULTED IN A
MORE CELLULAR APPEARANCE TO THE SNOW SHWRS EARLIER THIS AFTN
     LOW-LVL STABILIZATION AND INCRG SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS BY 21Z OR SO. IN FACT...EVIDENCE
OF SUCH IS ALREADY SEEN ON KBGM RADAR IMAGERY ATTM. MOST HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT MULTI-BANDS/FINGER LKS BANDS WILL REMAIN
AT PLAY TIL AT LEAST 06-12Z SAT. OVERALL...INTENSITY SHOULD WANE
AFTER 06Z...AS MODEL SNDGS SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION LWRG TO AOB
875-900 MB. WE`LL STICK WITH OUR 3-6" TOTALS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH
WUDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIER AMTS...SPCLY IN SERN
TOMPKINS AND/OR NRN TIOGA.

OUTSIDE OF MULTI-BAND AREAS...EITHER WIDELY SCTD -SHSN/FLRYS...OR
JUST DRY WX...IS FORESEEN.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... WE`VE ISSUED A LES ADVSY FOR
TOMPKINS...TIOGA...BROOME...AND SUSQ CNTYS...AS CONFIDENCE HAS
BECOME FAIRLY HIGH IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A WELL DVLPD FINGER LKS
BAND...THROUGH AT LEAST 00-03Z THIS EVE. OUR FIRST STAB AT SNOW
TOTALS IS 3-6"...BUT LOCALLY HIER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.

NO OTHER SIG CHGS ATTM.

EARLIER DISC... 830 AM UPDATE... SN/+SN IS BEING OBSERVED ATTM
WITHIN A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF THE WRN
CATSKILLS. THIS FEATURE IS ON THE NWRN/DEFORMATION SIDE OF A S/WV
LIFTING THROUGH THE RGN THIS MRNG. POP/WX/SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE
UPDATED TO REFLECT SUCH DVLPMTS. WE`VE ADDED A CORRIDOR OF 2-3"
ADDTNL SNOWFALL WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND AREA THROUGH
15-16Z. A SHORT-TERM SPS WAS ALSO ISSUED.

OTHWS...THE FCST IS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. FAIRLY DEEP LYR OF INSTAB
NOTED ON THE 12Z KBUF SNDG...INDICATIVE OF THE AMS WE`LL HAVE
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...AHD OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/WV. LIKELY POPS
FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER MOST OF CNY...WITH MORE SCTD ACTIVITY ACRS
MUCH OF NE PA...STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A FLUFFY 1-2"
ANTICIPATED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SHSN. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST HRRR AND HI-RES ARW OUTPUT IN PARTICULAR SHOW A WELL
FORMED MULTI-BAND/FINGER LKS BAND FROM LTR THIS MRNG...THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND INTO THE EVE HRS...DOWN THE AXIS OF CAYUGA LAKE...AND THEN
SEWD FROM THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMPKINS/TIOGA CNTYS. SINCE THERE
ARE ALREADY SOME INDICATIONS OF BANDING IN THIS GENERAL AREA
ATTM...WE`LL MONITOR THAT CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN STG CAA THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS STILL
LOOK LIKELY...AND OUR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TREND WAS KEPT IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...THINGS LOOK FAIRLY QUIET SAT-SUN
MRNG. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SAT...SO THE WIND CHILL EXPIRATION TIME
OF 16Z STILL LOOKS GOOD ATTM. A WEAK SFC FRNT AND NRN STREAM S/WV
ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE FA SAT NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUN...WITH ONLY SCTD LGT SNOW SHWRS AND FLRYS ANTICIPATED...AND
LTL IN THE WAY OF ACCUM.

RECENT GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS (GFS/EC/GEM) HAVE PERSISTED WITH THE
12Z FRI CYCLE...INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL WV...FARTHER N
SFC LOW TRACK...AND RESULTANT INCREASED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR
CNY/NE PA. MUCH MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE FOLLOWING SXN. FOR
NOW...WE`VE BROUGHT THE LEADING EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW (CHC-LIKELY
POPS) INTO AT LEAST SWRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MID TO LATE AFTN ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY A MOISTURE LADEN STORM
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS EVENT IS STILL MORE THAN 48
HOURS OUT, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF
THE SYSTEM AND IT`S EXACT TRACK BUT AS DISCUSSED ABOVE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA SHOULD RESULT IN THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY 6+ INCHES) GENERALLY OCCURRING ACROSS NE PA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF UPSTATE NEW YORK THEN EAST
INTO THE CATSKILLS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. WORTH
NOTING, HOWEVER, IS THAT IF THE LOW TRACK WERE TO TREND EVEN
FARTHER NORTH THIS COULD INTRODUCE MIXED PRECIP INTO NE PA CUTTING
AMOUNTS DOWN THERE AND RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER TOTALS
OVER NY. SO, AS MENTIONED, STILL UNCERTAINTY SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON WATCH AT THIS TIME. FINALLY, THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN THIS BEING A VERY COLD EVENT WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTH WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WINDS LATER MONDAY.

EXPECT SNOW TO WIND DOWN BY LATER MONDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
POSSIBLE IN IT`S WAKE MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VERY COLD TEMPS BY
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN WITH WIDESPREAD
SUBZERO READINGS. TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD WITH
BRIEF MODERATION TO SEASONAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPS TO
FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NW FLOW ALSO WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT IFR VISBYS FOR KITH/KBGM/KSYR AND AT
TIMES KELM. EXPECT VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
REDUCED TO A 1/2 SM AT TIMES. KRME/KAVP WILL GENERALLY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHOULD MISS THE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS.

THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST SITES BECOMING VFR BY
MORNING. KITH/KBGM WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO IMPROVE DUE TO THE
LAKE EFFECT OFF THE FINGER LAKES. EXPECT IFR VISBYS TO LAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KITH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THERE BEYOND THIS TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT / MON... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.

TUE...VFR.

WED...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ039.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ025-
     055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF/RRM





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