Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 220618
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
218 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather high pressure will keep temperatures mild and skies
mainly clear through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY TONIGHT/...
155 AM update...
A persistent upper atmospheric ridge will strengthen through
Saturday, pushing temperatures well above normal for late-
September.

Clouds spinning off from Jose will thin out later this morning
and early this afternoon. In the meantime, the dense cirrus
coverage will reduce the amount of fog expected Friday morning.

Fog is a better bet for Saturday morning, especially in the
river valleys. Skies will be mainly clear and winds will remain
light, increasing the odds for dense river valley fog.

As the ridge strengthens Saturday, temperatures will push into
the lower and middle-80s across the region.

730 pm update... Little change to forecast. Temperatures
starting to fall while winds become light to calm. Upped cloud
amounts with a high overcast cirrostratus from Jose most of NYS
and eastern and central PA. This will have little to no affect
on river valley fog formation just like the last several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 am update...
Very quiet weather continues Sunday and Monday with the only
concern being very warm temperatures and the potential for
patchy fog in the morning.

Large dome of high pressure and an anomalously warm air
mass...850mb temps around +20 deg C, roughly 2-3 standard
deviations above normal...will be situated over the region
Sunday and Monday, which will produce mostly clear skies and
high temperatures well into the 80s. A few locations touching 90
is not of the question. Clear skies at night and strong
raditional cooling at the surface will once again create
favorable conditions for valley fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
215 am update...
The upper level ridge begins to become suppressed by an
incoming upper trough from the west and the approaching tropical
system...Maria off the Atlantic coast.

Will likely see cloud cover increase on Tuesday, and with the
loss of the very warm air mass, temperatures will drop back into
the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Have kept
with a chance of rain showers Wednesday as the leading edge of
the cold front begins to make its way into the area. The
potential for rain Wed and Thur will greatly depend on how this
incoming cold front and Maria react to each other. The current
thinking is that the front and upper trough to the west will
have enough force to keep Maria off the coast and eventually
kick the tropical system to the e/ne by Friday. Will need to
keep an eye on model trends as these two features evolve through
the next several days.

Temperatures by Thursday should be back to near normal with
highs in the lower to mid 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The fog scenario for Friday morning is hardly cut-and-dry due
to the cirrus streaming off of the tropical system. We still
believe fog will be dense at times at KITH and KELM, with patchy
fog also possible at KBGM. However, ceilings and visibilities
are likely to be variable due to the cirrus overhead.

Skies will be partly to mostly sunny today with a north wind
around 5-7 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR except for fog possible each
late night/early morning, especially at KELM but for other
terminals as well at times.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DJP



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