Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 071127
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
627 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MILD AND FAIR SUNDAY, A GREAT LAKES STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MUCH
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
155 AM UPDATE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A GREAT LAKES LOW WILL BRING
ABNORMALLY HIGH THICKNESSES AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION,
WITH 925MB 0C ISOTHERM NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE AND A WARM ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERATE
MAX TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM MISSES OUR REGION TO
THE RIGHT, THE CYCLONE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP
CARVE OUT THE UL TROF AND SET THE STAGE FOR A MUCH COOLER END OF
WEEK. THE WEST EDGE OF COASTAL`S PRECIP SHIELD IS CLOSE ENOUGH
THE THE POCONOS REGION TO BEAR WATCHING, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
PRECIP IS FROM THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN FA MONDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE TROF SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ONLY
SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC
SNOW SHOWERS OVER NY AND PA INTO TUESDAY.

OVERALL, TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER ROUGHLY
36 HOURS.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING CYCLONE WILL GENERATE LAKE SNOWS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. IN
GENERAL A COLD PERIOD BUT NO BIG STORMS MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

PREVIOUS DISC...
FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
UTILIZED MODEL BLEND KNOWN AS THE SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS
OVER NORTHERN ZONES WHERE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED.

IN TERMS OF DAY TO DAY DETAILS, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, SETTING UP BY THE LATTER
PART OF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH W/NW FLOW. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOR ONEIDA, ONONDAGA, AND MADISON COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF CWA
WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NY. COLDER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH GUSTY NW WIND.

TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR COLD AND CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH EARLY
INDICATIONS BEING FOR A VERY COLD START TO NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR TODAY EITHER SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OR SKC THEN THIS EVENING CI DUE TO SYSTEM IN THE MID
ATLANTIC.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NIGHT THRU THU...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM



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