Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 171327
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
927 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COOL AND CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING A SIGNIFICANT FROST TO THE REGION BEFORE SOUTH WINDS SET UP
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK. GRIDS TWEAKED TO KEEP UP WITH OBS/TRENDS...BUT
OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE. THOUGH LOWS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S...A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS IN OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-
WAYNE-LACKAWANNA COUNTIES ACTUALLY MANAGED TO DIP INTO MID TO
UPPER 30S THIS MORNING...INCLUDING 36 IN MONTICELLO...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING IS NOW UNDERWAY. THIS CHILLY MORNING IS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN NOW OVERHEAD...BUT THE COLDER DAWN
AREAWIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CANADIAN HIGH NOW DESCENDING OVER MANITOBA. LYNN LAKE IN NORTHWEST
MANITOBA ACTUALLY HIT 19 DEGREES THIS MORNING...AND GERALDTON
ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR /ALONG COLD FRONT/ ACTUALLY
REPORTED SNOW. SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO ON THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND EXPECTED LOCAL IMPACTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER.
TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT TO MIXED SUN
AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVELS STILL HOLD A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WAA AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID- UPR 60S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS...ESPLY GFS/ECMWF MAY
HAVE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK. OUR PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE AT GENLY LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WE HAD
MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS...AND I MADE THE ESOTERIC MOVE TO SOFTEN
THAT TO SPRINKLES. LATER SHIFTS COULD REMOVE MENTION ALTOGETHER IF
DRYING TREND CONTINUES LIKE THE 00Z NAM.

THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILLSOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTION POTENTIAL AND
TIMING...LIMITING MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY /DAY 5/ FORECAST.
DID NUDGE UP POPS JUST A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO ALIGN
OUR GRIDS ALONG CERTAIN WFO BORDERS. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER
LOWER ONTARIO AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO
NY/PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VLY FOG AND IFR CONDS AT ELM HAVE BEEN LIMITED BY LAKE CLDS DRFTG
OFF ERIE THIS MRNG. HIPRES AND MIXING SHD END ANY LEFTOVER FOG
AND CLDS BRINGING VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS TODAY. TNGT...FOG SHD
RETURN TO ELM...AND PERHAPS ITH...AS CLR AND CALM CONDS CONT
OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM





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