Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 261852
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
252 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like warmth will continue, over the next several days.
Although much of the time looks rain free, hit and miss afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, are possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few very isltd shwrs have dvlps this aftn, but far less than
indicated by the shrt term meso models. Part of the reason is the
lrg amt mid and hi lvl clds limiting the htg. Upr lvl rdgg conts
to be quite strong as well. In any event, Wwll cont with chance
pops this aftn into the eve, but keeps pops blo what models have
indicated. Ovrngt, psblty of pcpn slowly drops as we lose htg.
Some lgt fog psbl but with limited cvrg, have not included in the
grids attm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rdgg locked in place over the fcst area thru the shrt term. Models
cont to insist that conv will flair in the aftns with htg, and
there is plenty of energy avbl, esp on the NAM. Hwvr, air remains
rather dry, and with mid lvl wrmg, any conv shd be very isltd, and
more likely north and west of the fcst area.

Earlier in the week, GFS,ECMWF showed a backdoor cold fnt driving
wwrd across the fcst area. This feature has weakend in time as the
rdg has and will remain locked in place. Ely flow will remain much
clsr to the cst.

Otr feature is the dvlpg ptnl tropical system off the se cst. This
ptnl low is very slow mvg and shd remain well south of the area
thru the shrt term at least.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 pm Thursday update...

Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a
ridge Wednesday night. Temperatures remain above normal
throughout. Models in decent agreement and used a blend of the
Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous.

On Monday a cold front will increase the forcing and upped the
pops to likely. After that mainly dry until at least Thursday. A
chance Thursday with poor model agreement. Next system may hold
off until Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 PM update...

VFR most of the time into Friday afternoon. Convection forming now
in western NY but this should stay isolated to scattered and
mostly in NY. Showers could drop visibilities to mvfr with the
humid air mass. Have a 4 hour tempo for this. Thunderstorm chances
at any one location is too low to include. Next chance of mvfr
will be late tonight with valley fog. Most likely at AVP/ELM/RME.
More showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon but after 18z.

South to southwest winds at 5 kts becoming calm to light and
variable tonight. Friday back to sw at 5 kts.

OUTLOOK...

Friday aftn through Monday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon and evening
thunderstorms possible any day with brief restrictions but best
chance will be Saturday to Monday. Also during this period rain
showers could reduce conditions. Early morning visibilities could
be reduced in the moist air mass to MVFR in haze and fog.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC



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