Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 250006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
806 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend with a stalled
frontal boundary draped over central New York. This boundary
will bring rain from time to time, mainly in Central New York
overnight and then at least a chance of it areawide through the
weekend. Some freezing rain is possible at times as cold air
occasionally drops into the Catskills and Mohawk Valley.


8 PM Update...
Amazing gradient in temperatures across PA and NY. Western
PA/far western NY actually got into the 70s, with 50s-some 60s
reaching into the Central Twin Tiers. Meanwhile, 40s and even
30s can be found generally east of I-81. Monticello is only 34
degrees. Avoca and Hazleton are in the upper 40s.

Just south of the sagging front, high res models and now some
operational ones are suggesting semi-convective shower
development into western NY this evening, which will then carry
across much of Central NY tonight. Showalter indices get to
about zero, and there is just a hint of instability aloft. I
have tweaked forecast accordingly for placement of these showers
for a time overnight. Otherwise not much change in general
expectations in forecast of front slipping southward overnight
into Saturday morning, with areas of light rain and patchy fog
along and behind.

Temperatures in Northern Oneida County may get around 32
degrees late tonight. Lingering light rain and/or drizzle at
that time could possibly result in a touch of ice. For now we
will continue to monitor for this potential.

Previous discussion...
The front has lifted well north of the area this afternoon
taking the precipitation with it, and even bring some clearing.
High pressure building over eastern Canada will push the front
southward again overnight and weakening as much drier air pours
in from the northeast. This will bring more showers to the area
tonight into Sunday as the front backdoors the forecast area.
The colder and drier air will also bring a return to a threat of
freezing rain over the northern and eastern zones Saturday
night into Sunday morning.

At times there will significant temperature differences over
the forecast area as parts of central Pennsylvania and western
New York approach the 60s, and eastern New York hangs around
40. This will result in non diurnal temperature swings and
difficult temperature forecasts.


240 PM update...
A southward shift in the frontal boundary will allow cold air to
bleed down from Northern New York and New England Sunday morning.
Sub-freezing temperatures at the surface will lead to patchy
freezing rain over our northeastern counties early Sunday
morning, before the front surges northward and pushes
temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Most of the forecast area will remain very mild Sunday night,
though forecast temperatures in the lower to middle-30s over the
far northeastern counties will once again increase the risk for
mixed precipitation.


240 PM update...
A high energy, unsettled pattern will continue through the long
term period. Multiple waves will rotate from the Pacific
Northwest across the US and into the northeastern U.S. through
the middle part of next week.

A continuation of the showery weather pattern is forecast, with
temperatures above normal for late March. Portions of our forecast
area will approach 60 degrees on Monday and Tuesday, especially
west of I-81 and up the lake plain.


Front will slowly sag from north of south across the terminals
during this TAF period, resulting in moistening conditions with lowering
ceilings and some fog. In the case of the NY terminals,
especially KSYR-KRME-KITH-KELM, eventual light rain and perhaps
drizzle will occur as well. Fuel alternate required to IFR CIGs
can be expected to spread north to south; earliest for KSYR-
KRME this evening, followed by KITH-KBGM-KELM overnight, then
KAVP towards dawn. Low level wind shear will also exist for a
time this evening for KITH-KELM-KBGM and through the night for
KAVP due to WSW to W low level jet of around 40 knots. The jet
will be too far aloft at KSYR-KRME for LLWS to apply.


Saturday night through Tuesday...Restrictions likely from waves
of rain as frontal boundary waffles over the area. Freezing
rain also briefly possible late Saturday night KSYR-KRME.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.




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