Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 201141
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
641 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
This weekend will be milder than recent days. After a dry start
some very light mixed precipitation will move into the western
Mohawk Valley this afternoon, then as far south as the northern
Susquehanna Region of NY tonight. This could continue into
Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon moisture will come in from the
west with light rain showers or drizzle. As temperatures cool
Sunday night it could freeze.  Rain will become more likely
Monday into Tuesday, as a low pressure system moves through the
region. Behind the system, cooler air will return midweek along
with scattered snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM Update...

Dry and mild with mostly high clouds and a steady southwest wind
most places. Temperatures where there is wind are in the 30s. A
weak front goes through this morning with cold air advection at
low levels. This will bring low clouds and maybe some mixed
precipitation to the far north this afternoon which expands
south to Delaware and Cortland Counties. Precipitation will be
very light but could be freezing especially late tonight.
Moisture will be locked into the low levels under a strong
inversion. The problem is that this layer is below the best
dendrite zone so precipitation could be freezing drizzle or
sleet. This will be most likely across the higher terrain east
of interstate 81 and in Oneida County. Oneida County will have
the best chance and the most qpf but still only a few
hundredths. Where these clouds are thickest in the northeast
temperatures only get to near 40 and tonight drop into the upper
20s.

Rest of the area will have more sun today especially in the
morning. Temperatures will rise into the low and mid 40s.
Tonight mostly cloudy with temperatures falling to around 30.

Sunday cooler with more clouds. Deeper moisture will be moving
in from the southwest ahead of a large storm in the Plains.
Temperatures will slowly warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s
as light drizzle or light rain. Oneida county and some of the
highest elevations of the Catskills should be cold enough for
mixed precipitation.  Again amounts very light during the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 am update... A tricky period, as significant warming and
moistening aloft, combines with residual low-level cold air, to
bring the potential for freezing rain across parts of our
forecast area. The best chance for such will be across our
normally prone areas within a light E-SE flow pattern (the
Thruway corridor, the southern Tug Hill region, northern/eastern
Otsego county, and the western Catskills). Elsewhere, we think
boundary layer warming will be sufficient for just rain to
occur.

Fortunately, warm advection forcing appears to be the main
driver for upward motion at this point, with upper jet dynamics
and significant short-wave support still lacking. This should
keep actual rainfall amounts fairly light.

By later Monday afternoon, we should see temperatures ranging
from the low-mid 30s in some of our far northern/eastern zones,
to the mid 40s across the western Finger Lakes region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
445 am update... No significant changes made at this time. We
simply blended the latest guidance into the existing forecast
for Monday night-Tuesday.

Still looks like mild, rainy conditions Monday night into
Tuesday, along and ahead of the surface occlusion. Exactly how
warm we`re able to get early Tuesday, and how solid the frontal
rain band becomes, will largely shape the degree of flood/ice
jam threats.

Previous discussion... Rain continues into the long term as a
big low pushes into the central Great Lakes. Temps will rise
onto early Tuesday, and begin to fall later in the day and
beginning the changeover to snow from west to east later in the
day.

Behind the low, a prolonged northwest flow of seasonably cold
air will linger lake effect snow showers into Thursday. Air is
not exceptionally cold, and flow does not seem favorable for a
biog snow event, but the best chance of accumulating will be as
usual, in the SYR area and into parts of the Finger Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 am Update...

VFR this morning with mid and high clouds. This afternoon lower
clouds come in from the north. Ceilings drop to MVFR this
evening in NY. RME falls to MVFR first at 23z and to fuel
alternate ceiling with some freezing drizzle starting around
06z. The rest of CNY sites fall to MVFR between 5 and 7z. SYR
and BGM will probably fall to fuel alternate late tonight. AVP
will remain VFR.

Mainly SW winds at 5 to 10 kts early this morning. Shift to
west and increase to 10 kts during the day. Some locations could
have gusts to 20 kts. This evening winds drop to 5 to 10 kts.
Up to about 15z a low level jet is causing low level wind
shear. 2k foot winds WSW at 40 to 45 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday morning...MVFR or IFR restrictions all NY sites and
maybe MVFR at AVP, with low CIGS. Drizzle or areas of freezing
drizzle possible in NY.

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night...Restrictions become even
more likely due to increasing clouds, and chance of very light
mix or drizzle.

Monday through Tuesday...Periods of rain and restrictions.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Chance of snow showers and
restrictions; best chance KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...TAC


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