Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 240723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
323 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Weak upper level disturbances, combined with lake moisture, will
trigger some scattered sprinkles in the Finger Lakes and Mohawk
valley today; perhaps as far south as the Twin Tiers this
afternoon into evening. Otherwise, building high pressure
will provide mainly dry and cool weather through the weekend.


3 AM Update...
Fallish upper trough will be the main player in the near term,
with fairly benign and cool weather.

Dry cool air advection and scattered clouds are preventing a
more significant fog night, but as is typical for late August,
anywhere the sky has cleared out in the Twin Tiers-Western
Catskills southward some valley fog is managing to form. Being
on the shallow side this morning, it will not take long after
dawn to mix out.

Northwest flow, continued cold air advection aloft from incoming
trough, diurnal heating at the surface, and some lake moisture
contribution will combine to churn up clouds and a few
sprinkles/light showers from Finger Lakes through Mohawk Valley
today, extending into the Twin Tiers-Western Catskills this
afternoon-early evening. However, still generally dry overall
with at least partial sunshine north and a mostly sunny sky
south. Highs will be mainly upper 60s-mid 70s which is a good
5-10 degrees short of climatology.

Main axis of upper trough will swing through overnight tonight,
resulting in enough clouds to hold back valley fog development.
Lows tonight will be cool, in the upper 40s-lower 50s. There
could also still be a couple sprinkles around.

On Friday, the trough will start to lift out and surface high
pressure will begin to build in from the western Great Lakes.
Highs again will be upper 60s-mid 70s but dewpoints will dip
even lower; in the upper 40s-near 50 late morning through
afternoon. This along with continued northwest wind and a fair
weather cumulus field that will dissipate late in the day will
indeed have a true Fall flavor.


Cool surface high pressure will exert its influence on our
weather through Sunday night. A small amount of energy will
rotate through NY/PA this coming weekend, but the atmosphere
will be very dry, precluding precipitation.

Temperatures will average below normal. Daily highs will reach
70 to 75 degrees, and overnight lows will dip into the 40s.


A continuation of the quiet weather pattern is forecast for the
beginning of next week. A broad trough will remain fixed over
the northeastern United States, while weak surface high
pressure sits over NY/PA.

A frontal system will approach our region on Wednesday, possibly
spreading a few showers into NY and PA.

Two tropical systems are forecast to move eastward late next
week. It is too early to determine if either will spread
moisture into the northeast.


VFR conditions will persist for all forecast sites 06Z Thursday
through 06Z Friday except KELM where valley fog is expected
early this morning. Scattered clouds will initially prevent fog
formation, but eventually KELM VIS will fluctuate to IFR or
worse towards dawn; perhaps even near airport minimums at
times. Weak disturbances passing aloft today will produce a
SCT-BKN deck across the NY terminals, and even a few sprinkles,
yet still at VFR. Variable winds will become WNW-NW 5-10 knots
during the day, then light north or variable this evening.


Friday through Monday...VFR except for possible valley fog at
KELM in the few hours up to dawn each morning.




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