Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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562
FXUS61 KBUF 301045
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
645 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be a return to cooler and less humid air for Memorial Day
through midweek following the passage of a cold front. Warm and
humid conditions will return Thursday, but another cold front will
drop temperature and humidity for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As as cold front had crossed the region overnight, there was a drop
in the dewpoints across the region, but little in the way of a wind
shift of sharp drop in temperature. The drier air will reduce or
remove the chance of precipitation during the course of the day and
tonight.

As the drier air works its way across Upstate NY,  skies will
become partly to mostly clear, although diurnal cumulus will develop
along and inland from the lake breezes during the afternoon yielding
a mix of sun and clouds. Stable lake shadows east of the lakes will
bring more full sunshine along the Lake Erie shore and near
Watertown.

Even though the less humid air will filter into the area,
temperatures will still top out in the lower 80s across lower
elevations away from the lakeshores, with upper 70s across the
higher terrain. It will still be quite a bit above the seasonal
normals of highs in the lower 70s, but more comfortable with the
lower humidity.

Skies will be generally clear tonight as high pressure ridges
eastward across the Great Lakes and northeastern states. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s, which will
be close to the dewpoint temperature and thus may result in patchy
fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
We can look forward to simply outstanding weather on Tuesday as high
pressure nosing south from Hudson Bay will cross the Lower Great
Lakes. This will provide our region with sun filled skies and very
comfortable conditions as max temps of 75 to 80 will be accompanied
by low humidity. This will prove to be an excellent day for outdoor
activities.

Tuesday night will feature very comfortable sleeping conditions...as
a dry Canadian airmass and light winds will encourage temperatures to
drop off into the 50s. Its not out of the question that some 40s are
experienced across the North Country and in the normally cooler
Southern Tier valleys.

On Wednesday...our region will find itself wedged between the
remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie along the Carolina coastline and
an approaching frontal boundary over the Upper Great Lakes. The
large scale subsidence between the two systems will combine with the
residual dry airmass to guarantee another day of full sunshine. It
will be warmer though...as temperatures are expected to climb back
into the low to mid 80s. The exception will be within 5-10 miles of
the south shore of Lake Ontario...where a northeast low level flow
will hold afternoon temperatures in the 70s. This northeast flow
will also keep dew points from climbing out of the 50s...so the
higher temperatures will be easier to tolerate.

A short lived push of warmer...more humid conditions will be
experienced over our region in advance of a cold front Wednesday
night and Thursday. The deepening southerly flow on the backside of
the exiting ridge but ahead of the front will push our dew points
back up over 60...especially over the far western counties. This
will once again set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms as
the aforementioned cold front passes through late Thursday afternoon
and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is high confidence that the first weekend of June will be much
more comfortable than the about to end Memorial Day Weekend...as a
notable pattern change will take place across the continent.

The Western Atlantic Ridge responsible for record heat...and even
for helping to fuel scattered strong to severe convection over the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Regions...will give way to a
progressive low amplitude flow during the course of the week. As we
push through the first weekend of June...the near zonal flow along
the length of the Canadian border will then buckle as anomalously
strong ridging will blossom across the Inter-Mountain West. The
resulting downstream troughing over the Great Lakes Region will
allow cooler...more comfortable Canadian air to pour south. With H85
temps averaging in the single digits C...daytime highs will be in
the 70s F...right where they should be for this point in the warm
season.

In terms of precipitation...high pressure situated over the Great
Lakes should supply our region with mainly dry weather.

A look further down the road...
Medium range ensembles strongly suggest that the longwave trough
will not only remain in place over eastern Canada and the Great
Lakes region through the first full week of June...but that a deep
upper level low will close off over Quebec. This would keep any
oppressive heat and humidity well south of our region...with
temperatures likely settling to below normal values. This scenario
is also supported by the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature
forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Drier air moving into the region following the passage of  cold
front, leading to a prolonged period of fine weather for the next
few days. Expect VFR through the 12Z TAF period for most locations.
There is a chance, albeit a low chance, for IFR conditions at KJHW
between 05Z and 12Z as patchy fog  may form.

Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the region and clean out the heat and
humidity, with mainly dry conditions expected on Memorial Day.
Winds will increase somewhat on Memorial Day, up to about 15 knots
on northeastern Lake Erie, which will produce choppy wave action but
still well below small craft advisory criteria. Westerly winds of 10
to 15 knots will be across eastern Lake Ontario on Tuesday, with
some choppy conditions possible. High pressure building across the
region will make for benign boating conditions during mid week but a
cold front passing Thursday may introduce thunderstorms with gusty
winds and higher waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH



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