Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281137
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS BLACK FRIDAY WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS FOUND EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THE COLD WEATHER WILL GIVE
WAY TO FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARMING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THOUGH...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AN AVERAGE
OF 25 DEGREES BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THEN
SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING TO A LOW
AMPLITUDE PACIFIC FLOW...WE CAN EXPECT ONE MORE COLD DAY ACROSS OUR
REGION AS TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WINTER WEATHER THAT WE HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED...IT IS EASY TO FORGET THAT AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THANKSGIVING ARE CLOSE TO 40.

THE MAIN PROBLEM TO ADDRESS TODAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THAT
WILL BE FOUND EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OF -15C AIR
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ESTABLISH ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY (LK TEMPS NR 6C)
TO PRODUCE SOME AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

OFF LK ERIE...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS NOTABLY DRIER AIR ABV 4K FT AND A CRASHING INVERSION WILL
TAKE HOLD BY MID MORNING. WHILE THE ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE SRN
TIER HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A BIT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AFTER DAYBREAK SHOULD BE 2 INCHES OR LESS. AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK IN ITS WAKE...THE WEAKENING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH NORTH
TOWARDS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACCUMS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SOUTHTOWNS.

OFF LK ONTARIO...THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT. DEEPER
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...A CAP ABV 10K FT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY SHOULD ALL WORK IN
CONCERT TO PRODUCE A HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE SNOW THAT WILL INITIALLY
SET UP OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY AND EXTEND ACROSS NRN
CAYUGA COUNTY TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THE 290-300
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS
BEFORE VERY SLOWLY BACKING TO ALLOW THE BAND TO LIFT TO CENTRAL
OSWEGO COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OF A HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM ABOUT 12-18Z...WITH SOME WEAKENING FORECAST DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS A LOWERING CAP AND DRY ADVECTION
ALOFT IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE LATE
TODAY...THE BAND MAY EXPERIENCE SOME STRENGTHENING FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING AS IT BECOMES ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE LAKE AND TAKES
FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE FETCH. THIS BRIEF INTENSIFICATION IS BEING
DEPICTED BY THE ON-STATION 06Z MESOSCALE MODELS AND IS ALSO SUGGESTED
BY THE RELIABLE REGIONAL GEM.

ALL THIS BEING SAID...HAVE UPGRADED THE LAKE SNOW ADVISORY TO A LOW
END WARNING FOR OSWEGO AND NRN CAYUGA. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE LAKE
SNOW ADVISORY TIL 00Z FOR WAYNE COUNTY.

FOR TONIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE A WEALTH OF CLOUDS
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROCESS WILL BRING AN END TO THE LK ERIE LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON...WHILE THE SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE WARM ADVECTION
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL BOTTOM OUT
(LOW 20S) BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE WEE
HOURS OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF
SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM THE NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND
BORDER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE ENSUING SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH THE LOW PUSHING
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY
BROAD/WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND CONSEQUENTLY SPITS OUT ONLY
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF. AS SUCH...WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH GENERAL
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...EXPECT RISING
TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH BOTH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...WE SHOULD SEE READINGS MODERATING
INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING
EVEN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARMING ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS AT THE START OF SATURDAY
MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE INSIGNIFICANT...
AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC...AND OUR REGION
REMAINS SITUATED SQUARELY WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR. UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...925 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +3C EAST AND
AROUND +8C WEST...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...WITH ANY FORCING
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE IN
NATURE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE THE GENERAL RULE WITH JUST
A LOWER-END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SWEEPS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
WITH THESE THEN MIXING WITH AND/OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE STEADILY COOLS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S BY THE END OF SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN ONLY SHOW VERY LIMITED RECOVERY ON MONDAY.

BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...A FRESH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH
COLDER AIR MAY HELP TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LIMITED BY BOTH A LOW /3-5 KFT/ CAP AND THE RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS...AND SHOULD QUICKLY END ALTOGETHER DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE BASED RIDGING AND EVEN DRIER AIR BUILDS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LIGHTENING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE QUITE COLD TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO AROUND
20 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED NEAR
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...
WHILE PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. THIS STATED
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER...WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

AFTER THAT...ANOTHER SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME BEING ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER GENERAL CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH
PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE AGAIN
LIKELY TO BE RATHER MUTED BY THE RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING
AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTH FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE LAKE SNOWS WILL RESULT IN
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTH. THIS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBUF AND KIAG EARLY
IN THE EVENING...AND AT KART AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE TOP OF THE SFC RIDGE TO PRODUCE FRESH
BREEZES ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS
WILL KEEP SCA CONDITIONS (MAINLY WAVES) IN PLACE FOR THE LAKE ERIE
NEARSHORES UNTIL ABOUT 15Z...AND ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE ON BOTH LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW ALL SCA`S TO EXPIRE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BOTH LAKES WILL THEN FRESHEN SATURDAY AND
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A FRESH ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH







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