Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 042358
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
758 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS EVENING RADAR SHOWS STEADY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH MORE
SPARSE ACTIVITY ACROSS LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BE DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS
ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW MOISTURE WITH STRATUS
AND/OR FOG. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/HRRR FORECAST SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS
TO AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S.

ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO. THE MAJORITY OF THE ORGANIZED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL FOLLOW THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...
WITH VERY WEAK PERIODS OF DPVA AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE
PARTIALLY TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INLAND FROM
THE LAKES. COVERAGE WILL BE LOWEST ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SOME
STABILIZING INFLUENCE FROM THE LAKES...WITH EXTENDED RAIN FREE TIME
IN MANY AREAS. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS THURSDAY...WITH SOME MID 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION RISK
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED
TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. AREAS CLOSER TO THE
LAKES AND CANADIAN BORDER WILL LIKELY SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER IN
MOST AREAS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND LEWIS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE WARMEST AREAS
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

THE PESKY CLOSED LOW WILL STILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN AT THIS SAME TIME. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FRIDAY TO SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

BY SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
LOWER LAKES BETWEEN THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A MAINLY DRY DAY.
THERMAL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES NEARING +8C WILL SUPPORT LOWER 70S FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED.

SATURDAY NIGHT A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN LIKELY PROBABILITIES
FROM CONTINUITY. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BY MAY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS. THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO THE LOWER LAKES
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THIS FRONT AND AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE FRONT IS
SUPPRESSED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ART
WHERE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NORTHEAST FLOW CAN
RESULT IN LOW STRATUS BUT THIS WILL ONLY HAPPEN IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT. IF MID-HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST THEN THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO FORM. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WITH JUST ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO LOWER CIGS
TO IFR AT BUF/IAG LATE TONIGHT WHILE TAFS KEEP ELSEWHERE MFVR OR
HIGHER.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...WITH ANY FOG/STRATUS
WHICH DOES DEVELOP LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY MID-LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JHW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
TO MODEST WINDS PREDOMINATING...ALONG WITH CORRESPONDINGLY MINIMAL
WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.