Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 010234
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE GENESEE
VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
DISTINCT SPIN WITH THIS...INDICATIVE OF A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
GOING DEEP INTO THE NIGHT DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND HRRR SEEM
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO
PASS OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK LEADING UP TO A
STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED BACK POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTH COUNTY WITH A FRONT
GLANCING THE NORTH COUNTY. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THAT MAY TRY TO SNEAK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY LATE
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...SMITH/WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



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