Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 060455
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1155 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A DEVELOPING STORM OFF THE
COAST. IT WILL THEN BECOME UNSETTLED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE FREQUENT SNOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS LATE EVENING DISPLAY THE FIRST BATCH OF SNOW
NOW PASSING OVER OSWEGO COUNTY. CURRENT RADARS ARE NOT DISPLAYING
ANY ORGANIZING BAND OF SNOW YET...BUT AS WINDS ALIGN A BAND OF
SNOW IS LIKELY TO FORM...TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE INITIAL BATCH
OF SNOW PASSED LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
SHOWERS...SOME LAKE SNOWS WILL BLOSSOM IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RELATIVELY LOW CAP OF 7-8K FT AND AN UNIMPRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS FROM ACCUMULATING
MORE THAN A FEW INCHES IN ANY ONE SPOT. THE DETAILS OFF EACH LAKE...

OFF LK ERIE...A 240-250 FLOW LATE THIS EVENING WILL BACK SOMEWHAT TO
AROUND 230 DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE BULK OF ANY
LAKE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE BUF METRO AREA AND ITS SOUTHERN SUBURBS
AROUND DAWN. ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH FROM
ROUGHLY SUNRISE TO AROUND NOONTIME.

OFF LK ONTARIO...A 270-280 FLOW WILL INITIALLY FOCUS THE LAKE SNOWS
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
STEADILY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO 230-240 DEGREES. THE TIMING
OF THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS FASTER THAN CONTINUITY BY ABOUT 3
HOURS...AND SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 2-3 INCHES FOR THE TUG
HILL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH...AS A SLOWER
MOVEMENT COULD NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.

AS MENTIONED...THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END AS FLURRIES
EAST OF LK ERIE WHILE ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER
NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH TOMORROW.
ELSEWHERE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ENCOURAGE DRY
WEATHER...DESPITE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 5 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE
FROM TODAY...REACHING TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN EASTWARD TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
NORTH TO THE VICINITY OF THE FADING COLD FRONT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE
TUG HILL NORTH WILL BE VERY LIGHT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 20S ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

ON SUNDAY... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STILL STALLED NEAR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER AND LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE SHOULD BE MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS LIMITED TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...ALONG WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR SOME WEAKLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID WEST/OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE VCNTY OF
WISCONSIN WITH NOTABLY COLDER AIR POURING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE DOWNSTREAM...A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE FROM OFFSHORE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHESAPEAKE BAY
BY MONDAY MORNING. BETWEEN THIS COASTAL LOW AND THE MIDWESTERN
LOW... A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH FROM THE LOWER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND PIEDMONT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
REGION THAT SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ENCROACHING THE WESTERN FRONTIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE UPPER CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH WEAK WARM FRONTAL
FORCING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOWS AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THIS MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN
WARM/MELTING LAYER ALOFT IS LOST AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
MAY BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LACKING A BOUNDARY LAYER
JET TO TRANSPORT SAID MOISTURE...AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COASTAL LOW AND INTERCEDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLOCK MOST
OF THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THAT SAID...THERE SHOULD BE REDUCED
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EASTERN PART OF THE STORM SYSTEM. IF
EITHER OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT MECHANISMS DOES DEVELOP... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS MAINSTREAM
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCLUDE 2 STD HEIGHT DEPARTURES FOR BOTH A WEST
COAST RIDGE AND AN ERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS
HIGHLY CORRELATED TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND THIS PARTICULAR OCCURRENCE WILL MOST CERTAINLY
FOLLOW SUIT.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF SOME OF
THE SFC FEATURES...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMPLEX
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FAVOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...MID AND EXTENDED RANGE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THAT WOULD SLOWLY PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY.

AS SUCCESSIVE COASTAL STORMS MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...A TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C WILL
SPILL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF
THE. 12S GFS IS SHOWING -32C AT 850MB ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR WILL
ENCOURAGE A TRANSITION FROM WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOWS DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK TO LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKEWISE DROP
WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S ON
WEDNESDAY THEN ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOW TEMPS WILL FALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHTS VALUES IN THE TEENS AND LOW
20S...TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOW TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS...AND EVEN MORE FRIGID FOR THE COMING WEEKEND (THE 13TH AND
14TH).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 00Z LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DIMINISHING THE
SYNOPTIC SNOWS...WHILE ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE HURON AT 00Z WILL PASS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT...AND TRIGGER A WEAK LAKE
EFFECT RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT
VFR/MVFR SNOW SHOWERS OVER KBUF AROUND 12Z TOMORROW...WHILE A
BETTER ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...TRANSITIONING TO EAST OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BRING IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
NEAR KART ROUGHLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

BEHIND THE BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE MAY OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE KIAG AND KBUF AIRFIELDS OFF LAKE ERIE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL FRESHEN OVERNIGHT SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SCA`S WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT EAST THE
FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...RSH


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