Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 192107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
507 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST SATURDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATED H85 EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 C. THE SHOWER CHANCE
WILL BE GREATER IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.
RADAR TRENDS AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEDGE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WILL HOLD MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 1.50 INCHES IS
FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SUMTER THROUGH COLUMBIA TO
AUGUSTA. THUS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN
MIDLANDS AS SHOWERS ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S AS SKIES CLEAR.

SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TAKING THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. H850 FLOW
BECOMES DOWNSLOPE AND PWAT DECREASES TO BELOW AN INCH WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. SUNNY
SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPSTATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH CONSENSUS FOR LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE NAM WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL INFLUENCE HEATING AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AS MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED AND TIMING APPEARS TOO EARLY TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORABLE.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...JUST IN TIME FOR THE FALL EQUINOX. TUESDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CREATE A STRONG EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. HAVE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS AND
UPGRADE LATER BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS.
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS...OGB/AGS/DNL...DUE TO LOCATION OF BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC. ALSO...THIS ALONG WITH
DIURNAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR
MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR
THE COAST AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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