Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 251946
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE SUNNY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER TO THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAV GUIDANCE WAS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE MET. RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND CAME OUT
IN BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALSO DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN. MODELS
SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
REACHING ONE INCH BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO RISE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING TO OVER 1.6 INCHES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY WHILE SLOWLY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY WITH THE BEST MOISTURE SHIFTING
EAST LATE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CALM WINDS TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS YIELDED
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. MAIN-STEM RIVERS
HAVE RESPONDED TO THE RAIN. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AMOUNTS WERE A
LITTLE LOWER THAN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A FEW RIVERS MAY APPROACH
FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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