Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 240719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MORNING WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL
SIDE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFF
THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN
A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CSRA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE
SW EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NE AND INCREASED IN
SPEED BEHIND THE FEATURE...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.
SO...NO FOG EXPECTED.

VFR TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
TO PROVIDE SOME STRATOCU CLOUDINESS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
VFR BASES EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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