Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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