Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 241510
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1110 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through
Saturday and maintain dry conditions. Moisture will increase
through the weekend in an onshore flow with a chance of showers or
thunderstorms beginning Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The latest analysis showed surface high pressure extending into
the forecast area from the northeast. Upper ridging extended
across the South. The remains of an old frontal boundary south of
the forecast area will continue weakening and reorienting to the
west with dry air blanketing our area. The temperature guidance
was close. Expect afternoon highs in the lower 90s with overnight
lows mainly in the upper 60s to around 70. The last time the
temperature dipped below 70 at Columbia Metro was the low of 61
on June 20th. Augusta Bush was last in the 60s just last month on
July 22nd with a low of 69. Augusta Daniel was last in the 60s on
June 20th with a low of 66.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue
dominating the region through Friday night. With the upper level
ridge nearly centered over the region and dry air through much of
the column convection will remain suppressed. As such expect
partly cloudy skies and with the upper level ridge over the area
temperatures will continue climbing slightly. Afternoon highs will
be in the low to mid 90s Thursday and mid 90s Friday, with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70 Thursday night and
low 70s Friday night.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are in good agreement through Saturday with differences
increasing from Sunday through Tuesday. Upper level ridging and
weak high pressure will remain over the region through much of the
long term with easterly flow increasing through the tropics.
Models continue to make significant run to run changes in regard
to the tropics with large model to model differences as well. As
such expect moisture to increase across the region from Saturday
through Tuesday...however due to considerable uncertainty due to
model differences and run to run changes have made few changes to
the long term forecast. Temperatures through the long term will be
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions through the period, although there may be
an increased fog threat late tonight primarily at the fog-prone
terminals of AGS and OGB.
The surface pressure ridge will continue to extend into the
forecast area from the Mid Atlantic region. Aloft, ridging will
continue as well. These features should help maintain VFR
conditions. Strong net radiational cooling and moisture
associated with the river valleys may lead to fog at AGS and OGB
late tonight. The NAM MOS indicated a period of IFR or MVFR fog.
The GFS MOS maintained VFR conditions. The GFS MOS was better last
night and some lingering moisture as noted by model time-height
displays around 3000 feet may limit the cooling. We kept the VFR
forecast but confidence is low at AGS and OGB around sunrise
because of the model inconsistency. We followed the GFS and NAM
MOS for the wind forecast and expect mainly light easterly wind.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Sunday.