Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 262313
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
613 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
High pressure over the region will move to the coast overnight.
An onshore flow will bring increasing moisture for Monday.
A cold front will cross the region Wednesday night bringing a
chance for showers and thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Cool and dry high over the region will move to the coast overnight.
High level clouds will begin increasing late tonight in near
zonal flow aloft. Dry airmass combined with near calm wind will
allow temperatures to cool into the 30s again tonight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high will be centered offshore on Monday. Isentropic
lift and moisture flux develops during the day Monday. Best
chance for showers to develop should be after sunset Monday as
moisture is shallow and lift is weak. Low chance pops Monday
night. Thunderstorm threat appears limited due to lack of
instability. Focus for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
Tuesday night may focus north of the area where warm front sets
up...but air mass likely moderately unstable in the afternoon.
Chance pops Tuesday and Tuesday night but pop guidance spread is
high. Afternoon temperatures above normal Monday and Tuesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A deep late winter upper trough digs into the Plains states on
Wednesday and progresses into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by
the end of the week. A strong cold front is forecast to sweep
across the Southeast U.S. Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Expect showers and thunderstorms ahead of and with the front
Wednesday into Thursday morning. Canadian high pressure will
build into the Eastern U.S. behind this system Thursday
afternoon into next weekend. Temperatures will start out above
climo for early March and then drop to near or below climo by
the end of the week.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Monday
High pressure over the region will move offshore overnight.
Dry airmass with clear skies this evening. High level clouds
will begin moving in around 09Z in near zonal flow aloft. No fog
expected tonight given dry airmass. Light and variable winds
will become southeast Monday ahead of the next weather system.
Mid level clouds will develop Monday afternoon and evening.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of MVFR/IFR restrictions
possible Monday Night through Thursday as moisture returns to
the region. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will
be Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region.