Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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802
FXUS62 KCAE 172152
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
452 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing and cooler tonight behind the front. Dry high pressure
will maintain fair weather late week into the weekend, with
moderating temperatures this weekend. Moisture return expected
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Upper trough axis is moving through northern Georgia is forecast
to push across SC late this evening. Band of light snow
associated with the upper trough expected to cross the midlands
through late this evening. Only trace snow amounts for most area.
Have increased pops for the northern and central Midlands through
02Z.

Overnight...Drier and much colder airmass will be pushing
into the area behind the exiting cold front tonight as high pressure
builds into the area. All precipitation is expected to east of
the forecast area by 03Z with no additional precip expected.

Main concern overnight is going to be very cold temperatures
combining with any lingering moisture on roadways and
bridges, creating a potential for black ice. Will hold off on
any statement related to this for now given other warning/advisory
products in effect but an SPS may be needed after all the
precip has moved out of the area and all current
warnings/advisories have been cancelled or expired. Models
indicating temperatures will drop back into the teens and lower
20s with cold advection overnight. Am a little concerned that
readings may be even lower than guidance considering how cold
conditions were in upstream states Wednesday morning. Some weak
downslope warming, along with winds keeping up up through the
night, may help keep readings closer to guidance though, so will
not differ much right now from current forecast guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday morning will start out cold as arctic high pressure moves
in behind the exiting cold front. Untreated roads may be slick as
rain and snow from Wednesday`s storm freezes overnight. Temperatures
should warm above freezing by late morning, and then warm into the
mid 40s during the afternoon. Yet clear skies and light surface
winds will allow for good radiational cooling Thursday night, and
temperatures will fall back into the 20s. Temperatures will begin to
moderate on Friday, with highs in the mid 50s. However, Friday
night`s temperatures will still fall below freezing due to
radiational cooling, with lows again in the 20s. The surface high
will be centered south of the area on Saturday, and low-level flow
will become more southwesterly. This will allow temperatures to
continue to warm, with highs possibly reaching into the low 60s. Dry
conditions will prevail through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warming will continue on Sunday as high pressure shifts offshore,
with highs in the mid 60s. Atmospheric moisture will also be
increasing due to deeper southwesterly flow. The next front is now
expected to push into the area on Monday, bringing a good chance of
rain. A deep upper trough will lift northeastward from the Plains
into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, and then into the
Northeast on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain mild on Monday with
highs in the 60s to near 70. Upper level zonal flow will return on
Tuesday behind the trough, and temperatures should only cool
slightly, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Precipitation has ended at AGS/DNL, but other terminals may
still see some light precipitation over the next couple of hours
based on current radar trends. A secondary band of light snow
currently in the Upstate of SC will shift east through the area
over the next couple of hours. Conditions remain MVFR at
CAE/CUB/OGB and are not expected to improve until around 02/03Z
when the lower clouds finally scatter out. Conditions at AGS/DNL
have returned to VFR with skies clearing. The CSRA is right on
the edge of the clearing line currently, so cannot rule out some
lower clouds passing back through the AGS/DNL sites over the
next couple of hours before making a final exit. Skies should be
mostly clear across the area by 06Z as high pressure builds
back into the region from the west and the upper trough shifts
off the East Coast. No fog tonight due to increased winds and a
dry airmass.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ015-
     016-021-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     SCZ027>029-031.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for SCZ020.

&&

$$



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