Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 010211
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1011 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
The remnant circulation center of Bonnie will
remain near the North Carolina coast through Thursday. A slow
moving cold front will approach the forecast area over the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest radar loop showing Last bit of convection this evening
mainly over the southern Midlands moving to the south, which
should move out of our forecast area over the next hour. Latest
run of the SPC HRRR still indicating that the convection will
diminish by late evening. High low-level moisture and nocturnal
cooling will likely lead to areas of stratus and fog late tonight.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to near 70.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models display a weak trough in or just south of the forecast
area through Thursday. This trough extends southwestward from the
remnant tropical system Bonnie which is forecast to remain near
the North Carolina coast through Thursday. High low-level moisture
associated with this system will continue. Nocturnal cooling
combined with this moisture will likely lead to the development of
areas of stratus and fog during the early morning hours. Heating
and mixing should help dissipate the stratus and fog later in the
morning. The models indicate weak upper ridging but with h5
temperatures -8 to -9 C and strong heating expect moderate
instability will occur during the days. The NAM indicates
surface- based LI`s -6 to -7. Expect mainly diurnal thunderstorms
with coverage limited by shallow moisture. Forecasted chance pops
as supported by the guidance consensus. The temperature guidance
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display a front slowly moving toward the
forecast area over the weekend. The models depict the deepest
moisture Sunday night ahead of the front with the front moving
through the area Monday. It may be dry behind the front for
Tuesday. Followed the guidance consensus for the pops and
temperatures during the medium-range period. Forecasted chance
pops with temperatures a little above normal.
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current radar indicates scattered to isolated convection across
the forecast area. Isolated pulse thunderstorms will be slow
moving due to the weak wind field. Development will die down
Continued high level moisture is expected to result in some fog
or stratus late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Favored the NAM
guidance which has restrictions similar to last night. Included
MVFR CIGS and visibilities at CAE/CUB/OGB however CIGS may go down
to IFR early Wednesday morning. Fog may be a concern at fog-prone
AGS with less cloud cover expected over the CSRA tonight.
Wednesday, expect light winds throughout the day, generally out of
the north but variable at times. Without much change in the
moisture profile, scattered to isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms may develop.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of diurnal convection through
Friday. A cold front will approach the area over the weekend
bringing associated restrictions.